Ohio Valley in Line for Possible Significant Snowfall

[donsutherland1]

Over the next 48 hours, a storm will be moving north-northeastward across the Appalachians and then the St. Lawrence River Valley. As a result, the Ohio Valley will likely see its largest snowfall so far this winter.

Several points are in order:

1) There is an absence of blocking, so the storm is not likely to be forced to the east of the Appalachians.

2) The storm should be a relatively slow-mover. Hence, close to its axis, precipitation amounts may reach 1"-2" with locally higher amounts.

3) With bitterly cold air plunging southward, the boundary between little or no snowfall and significant snowfall should be very tight.

4) Ahead of the storm, parts of the Ohio Valley will see mild enough readings so that the precipitation begins as rain prior to changing to snow.

5) The axis of heaviest snowfall could lie along a line running from Evansville, IN to Columbus, OH +/- 50 miles. There, a widespread 6"-12" snowfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

Right now, my ideas are as follows for the total snowfall from tonight through Thursday night:

Cincinnati: Rain-to-snow: 4"-8"
Cleveland: Mostly or all snow: 4"-8" locally 12"
Columbus: Mostly or all snow: 6"-12"
Detroit: 1"-3"
Evansville: Mainly or all snow: 6"-12"
Indianapolis: Mainly or all snow: 4"-8"
Lexington, KY: Rain ending as snow: 1"-3"
Louisville, KY: Rain ending as accumulating snow: 3"-6"
Paducah: Rain-to-snow: 4"-8"
Pittsburgh: Mainly rain but a period of accumulating snow at the end: 1"-3"
St. Louis: 2" to locally 4"
Toledo: 2"-4"

The snow should be followed by an air mass that could rival or even surpass the chill on Sunday-Monday in parts of the region. This means that it is not out of the question that Detroit could flirt with 0° following the storm.

[jkt21787]

Hey Don, what are your thoughts for Memphis?

Thanks. BTW, take a look at the Mid-South thread on the last post, and tell me what you think of the MOS output on 12z data.

[wx247]

Thanks Don. Looks like you are more in favor of the slightly farther NW track that puts place like St. Louis in line for a few inches of snow.

[WXBUFFJIM]

St Louis could easily see a few inches with more south and east and much less or nothing north and west of there. This could potentially have a sharp cutoff in the precipitation shield where several inches of snow occurs south and east of that cutoff and nothing falls north and west of it, at least that's a possibility.

Jim

[Scorpion]

Wow 6-12 inches in Columbus! My family there is gonna have a blast!

[donsutherland1]

My final call on total snowfall for the event:

My estimated accumulations:

Cincinnati: 6"-10" locally 12"
Columbus: 8"-14"
Cleveland: 6"-10" locally 12"
Detroit: 4"-8"
Evansville: 8"-14"
Indianapolis: 4"-8"
Lexington: 2"-5"
Louisville: 3"-7"
Memphis: Up to 2"
Pittsburgh: 2"-4"
St. Louis: 2"-4"
Toledo: 6"-10"

[PurdueWx80]

Near 6-7" on the ground and snowing heavily just 15-20 miles WNW of Louisville. Almost no wind blowing, but it's around 20 degrees according to my parent's thermometer out back. The worst is yet to come (tonight)! I fully expect totals here between 12-15" by tomorrow morning, with 18 still not out of the question.

[Miss Mary]

If you look on a map of SW Ohio and specifically the Cincinnati area (Hamilton County), I'm on the very south-eastern edge). The heavy snowfall line is dividing Cincy apparently. I would estimate I've had 3 or 4 inches already. But just 2 hours ago, in SW Indiana, I heard Osgood and Versailles had 5+ inches, which could be easily be up to 8 now. Depending upon which local wx station/mets you follow, my exact location is in the 4-8 inch range, on average. But the western part of Cincy, is in the foot range! Usually our entire city/county is the same. Not this time.

Heard late tonight a surge of warmer air will move north, we could have a brief period of sleet and freezing rain, then back to snow again, on into Thursday.

Finally, thunder/lightning/thunder snow is not out of the question this afternoon. That possibility exists local mets say.

And my kids wanted us to venture out to the local mall....yeah right! They featured one older man, at a mall nearby on the noon news. The parking lot was deserted but he had a spot near the door! I think he was crazy!!! We're hunkering down I tell ya...going to start a pot roast soon. Maybe walk the dog in the snow (she loves the stuff! It's like a white fluffy blanket to her). Bake cookies, etc.

Purdue - I keep seeing the heavy snowband right over you!!! Are ya lovin' it? LOL I keep calling you Purdue...can I please ask what your first name is? Just a first name....that's all. I like to put a name with a nic. Thanks.

Mary

[Brent]

Near 6-7" on the ground and snowing heavily just 15-20 miles WNW of Louisville. Almost no wind blowing, but it's around 20 degrees according to my parent's thermometer out back. The worst is yet to come (tonight)! I fully expect totals here between 12-15" by tomorrow morning, with 18 still not out of the question.

PLEASE TAKE PICTURES! I want some.

[PurdueWx80]

Purdue - I keep seeing the heavy snowband right over you!!! Are ya lovin' it? LOL I keep calling you Purdue...can I please ask what your first name is? Just a first name....that's all. I like to put a name with a nic. Thanks.

Mary

Hi Mary...my name is Andy, thanks for asking! Yeah, the heavy snow has been over us since this morning, and it isn't letting up. The flakes are actually huge now, which makes me think there is slightly warmer air a bit off the ground acting to melt the flakes slightly and cause them to stick together a bit. Round 1 is almost over, 2 is on the way.

My mom and dad got my brother a puppy for Christmas, and my aunt followed suit and bought one of her sisters, so they've been a blast this morning. The snow is pretty much over their heads, and they don't seem to know what to think right now. It's hilarious!

[PurdueWx80]

Near 6-7" on the ground and snowing heavily just 15-20 miles WNW of Louisville. Almost no wind blowing, but it's around 20 degrees according to my parent's thermometer out back. The worst is yet to come (tonight)! I fully expect totals here between 12-15" by tomorrow morning, with 18 still not out of the question.

PLEASE TAKE PICTURES! I want some.

I've already taken about 20 on my digital camera, and will take some more tomorrow. I'll pick out the best and upload them on my laptop once I have a faster internet connection. It's amazingly beautiful though, something we only see here once every 10 years (if we get 18 I will have never seen that).

[isobar]

Hey Andy, Thanks for finally giving us something else to call you. Enjoy your stay in Louisville.

Mary, I live for thundersnow! It sounds so different from regular thunder. I'm hoping we all get to have experience it tonight. I lived in NH for 16 yrs and never heard it. Been in So. IN for 2 yrs and heard it at least once each winter. Go figure!

I measured 6" so far here in Warrick county, IN, just east of Evansville. I've read reports west of town of over a foot. Evansville's daily record of 9" will probably be exceeded.

Last winter we had 5" of snow the entire season, so we've already surpassed that.

Donna

[lutesk]

Here ya go.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/lutesk58/ ... 67&.src=ph

[Miss Mary]

3:45 p.m.: experiencing bursts of sleet mixed in with snow, east side of Cincinnati. Snow lets up off and on, but hasn't completely stopped.

Donna - we experienced thunder snow once - 1996 maybe? It was the two day January storm that dumped 18 inches on Cincinnati. We saw the lightning out the corner of our eyes and that quick, heard the thunder. I knew what it was but my family didn't! I said - fast, turn on the porch light, it's going to dump snow on us! We had a fast 3 inch burst from that thunder snow. It was the neatest thing to witness!

My girls are in the hot tub and if I could post their pics I would (I don't know how to do that, and I'd need their help, so they'd say NO!). My husband has one of two hats he wears in it when it's raining - a hard, plastic white postal hat (my brother is a retired mailman), or a multi-colored umbrella hat. So they each had one on. Out the camera came. Then they wanted their Santa hats with tassles. They let the jets run and took the foam to make beards. Pretty funny!!!

Andy...thanks for your first name! Nice to offically meet ya!

Mary

PS - okay I just gave you all that funny scene to picture in the hot tub....now for the next one.

I just saw someone jog down my street in SHORTS! Yes, bare legs....in the sleet! Crazy fool that guy was!!!!

[beachbummer]

Mary, Andy...

Son is flying into Cincinnati from L'ville around 5:35 tonite...has a flite out of CVG at 9:05...are you hearing any cancellations?? Thanks!

[CINCINNATISUN]

I've heard of many delays at CVG but no cancellations, that might change as the evening progresses.

CSUN

[Miss Mary]

I heard CVG (Cincinnati's airport, located in northern KY) is keeping one runway clear at all times. When it becomes snow covered, they switch to a just cleared runway. While I earlier heard there were no cancellations, later I heard perhaps 20% would be cancelled. But on TWC, CVG had 180 minute delays on flights.

Here's a local link I found, if it's of any help to you beachbummer:

http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

Mary

[PurdueWx80]

Heavy snow with thunder and lightning reported in Tell City, IN, approximately 50 miles WSW of Louisville right on the Ohio River. Tell City looks to be in the bright band associated with mixed precipitation, but I suppose the cores of bright reflectivity are actually associated with heavier precipitation. Snow is mixing back in now, and I expect it to change over within an hour or so. Models still showing potential for 6-12" in many areas tonight along and north of Ohio River, but that won't be realized in areas that fail to change over to snow soon. System every bit as strong as advertised, and vertical motions expected to skyrocket as 850 and 700 mb lows strengthen in a few hours. I'm gonna wait up for a while to see if I can see any of this thundersnow again! Woohoo!!

[ohiostorm]

Thats some power right there!!

[Miss Mary]

90 minute delays at the airport now.

Biggest local story right now is I-75 southbound in northern KY is at a standstill (known as the cut in the hill). And has been since 6:45 p.m. tonight!!! Almost 4 hours now. Local news crews keep showing hundreds of cars, semi's, trucks all parked, bright red brake lights on. Some people are getting off highways to check into hotels but this stretch is a nightmare to road crews. They clear it, let a few vehicles thru, then it's all iced over again (it's coming down that fast right now).

I'm just glad we're all home and my kids are not out and about (having teens, that opt to stay home is comforting on a night like this, or I should say don't put up a fight when I say they have to stay home!).

No thundersnow. Was hoping for it but the freezing rain has been falling for about 3 hours now. It just doesn't let up. We hear it hitting the windows and our dog is afraid of severe thunderstorms. She's hiding out in the bathroom - LOL. We keep saying it's not really rain but she doesn't get it. Well, it's rain, but you all know what I mean.

Mary