I really, really, really, really, really hate the GFS!

[Steve]

Just when it's going to snow down the road, the model reverses. Then it's going to be super cold. Then the model reverses. Then there's going to be a snowstorm and cold again. Then the model reverses. Then it's going to be a cold rain event. The model reverses. Then it's just going to be chilly. The model reverses. Well the 18z GFS is out up to 78 hours (Day 4 06z), and what do you know? It's got more precipitation than any of the previous runs from the last several days. Problem this time is with the freeze line. This is more insane than trying to follow the models with hurricane paths (but at least I'm not watching Water Vapor loops, heh).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Steve

[Steve]

Yo bfez1,

check out the 84 hour 18z GFS. Maybe there will be some action near here afterall. Then again, by 00z runs, maybe not

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[BreinLa]

ROFLMAO these models don't know how to deal with Snow in da South sheeeesh

[bfez1]

Yo bfez1,

check out the 84 hour 18z GFS. Maybe there will be some action near here afterall. Then again, by 00z runs, maybe not

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

See me bouncing, now I'm up again----

[BreinLa]

Hey Bonnie, see the Snow Angel (Avatar), just for us on the Gulf Coast

[bfez1]

Hey Bonnie, see the Snow Angel (Avatar), just for us on the Gulf Coast

She's beautiful. Hope she brings the snow our way.

[Stormsfury]

the 12z and 18z runs of BOTH the ETA/GFS are drastically different with the associated s/w much farther east than the previous 12z run ...

part of the problem has gotta be the lack of RAOB observations which causes model guidance to "lose" a storm, only to magically re-appear as the associated system moves into a region of sufficient observations.

still NOT going gung ho on this, but TRENDING a bit better for Southern Snow lovers ... in fact, the 18z ETA has a swath of snowfall in the Florida Panhandle at the 84hr time frame.

SF

[Yankeegirl]

KHOU has snow forecast on friday here!!

http://www.khou.com

[Rainband]

local just said snow or freezing rain possible in the panhandle LA has a pretty good chance then too

[PTrackerLA]

LOL, here we go again. I guess the chances have come back. WOO HOO!

[Aslkahuna]

Another problem is that the GFS is a hopeless piece of crap that nobody in their right mind should take seriously-especially beyond 24 hours. Instead of using models, maybe some good old fashioned forecasting using the old tried and true forecasting rules might be a better approach.

Steve

[Steve]

I totally agree with ya, but it's the only one I can hang my hat on just yet . I don't follow it much during tropical season FWIW.

Steve

[Rainband]

LOL, here we go again. I guess the chances have come back. WOO HOO!

depends on IF the low develops in the GOM and where it tracks!!

[weatherfan]

Just take the last week so called storm that the gfs was consistent on.Yes it was consistent but it was consistintey wrong.As Dt has stated this pattern right now is about the wrose for the northeast and east coast for snow storms that its likey the wrose since 2001-2002.But don't think that mean this winter is like 2001-2002 because its not any where close.The theam of this winter is pancents.Its a slow progressing to the winter pattern and the seacond hafe still looks much more active and severe.

[PTPatrick]

wasnt somebody just posting that the GFS nailed the current midwest snowstorm, by having heavier amounts with a more accurate track?