Ohio Valley NWS offices up amounts

[PurdueWx80]

Finally, they recognize this storms potential and have written some very good warnings.

Some snippets:

Louisville -

CLARK-CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-FLOYD-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-PERRY-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ALBANY...JASPER AND CORYDON
330 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET, BUT FOR THE MOST PART SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
NOTE THAT THIS IS AN AVERAGE OVER THE AREA, AND ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO, SHOULD MORE SLEET MIX IN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, THE SNOW
TOTALS WOULD BE LOWER.

TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TODAY. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PLANS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND ADJUST TRAVEL
PLANS AS NECESSARY. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS.

I'm in this bracket, now expecting 6-12+ according to them. The city, just one tier of counties south of these above, is expecting 4-8" with ice as well. Indy's office also upped amounts (6-12"), as did Cincy (6-12") and Paducah (8-14").

Even though this whole event has been and continues to be intriguing, tomorrow night's events are the most exciting to me. As the system wraps up and intensifies, a classic set up for very heavy snow will occur on the back side of the low. This is where the CSI will be most likely (don't be surprised to see "surprise" totals in parts of AR and western TN out of this - not forecasting it yet but it looks quite possible).

[Guest]

Grand Rapids (GRR) has added winter storm watches as well. 6-12 is thier call for the areas with the watches. Can anyone back what they are saying? I would love to know what data they are talking about besides the models that show a stronger storm. BTW i am in se Calhoun county.

FXUS63 KGRR 220812
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...
OUR TOUGHEST FORECAST CHALLENGE (OF MANY IN THE SHORT TERM) IS TO
TAKE A REAL CLOSE LOOK AT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PASS BY
TO OUR SE THURSDAY MORNING AND TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY
HEADLINES FOR OUR SE CWA.

FIRST FOR TODAY, WE'VE GOT A LITTLE TROUGH OVER OUR AREA AND WE'LL
BE IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -8 C OVER OUR SE
CWA TO AROUND -14 OVER OUR FAR NW CWA. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CERTAINLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST TODAY, SO
WE'LL CARRY CHC POPS FOR THAT (BEST CHC FAR NW CWA). OVER THE REST
OF OUR AREA, WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY.

WE NEED TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NNE TO NEAR OR JUST SE OF
COLUMBUS OH BY 12Z THUR. WE STRONGLY PREFER GFS GUIDANCE WHICH IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW AND CERTAINLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH
QPF'S. GFS GUIDANCE IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH UPPER DYNAMICS AS
WELL AS DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGAS. DECENT 700 MB F-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED OVER OUR SE CWA REAL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH AT FIRST GLANCE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW MIGHT IMPLY OUR CWA WOULD JUST MISS ON WARNING CRITERIA SNOW, OR
IT WOULD JUST CLIP OUR SE CWA, MY FEELING IS THE DEEPER H5 TROUGH
(GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THAT WAY) OBVIOUSLY FAVORS A STRONGER AND
LITTLE MORE NW SFC LOW TRACK. EVEN THE LESS AMBITIOUS ETA GIVES JXN
AROUND 8" OF SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND WE THINK
THAT'S LOW. THEREFORE WE ARE GOING TO POST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
OUR SE CWA INCLUDING CLINTON, EATON, INGHAM, CALHOUN AND JACKSON
COUNTIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOW TONIGHT AND ANOTHER 3-6" THURSDAY.

FARTHER WNW OF THAT AREA INCLUDING THE GRR, AZO, AND BTL METRO
AREAS, WE'LL GO WITH SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, AND
ANOTHER 1-2" AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. ONLY AROUND AN INCH WILL FALL OVER
OUR NE CWA TONIGHT, WHERE SNOW WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK,
THEN THEY'LL GET ANOTHER 1-2" THURSDAY. WITH ALL THE COLD DRY AIR
OFF TO OUR WNW, WE THINK THERE WILL BE A SHARP NW TO SE SNOWFALL
TOTAL GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA AND THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH NW EXTENT
OF QPF'S A BIT. IN FACT ACROSS OUR NW CWA, WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (A FUNCTION OF LAKE EFFECT RATHER THAN
ASSOCIATED WTIH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM).

THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE VERY CLOSELY. I
WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED IF MODELS TREND THE SFC LOW TRACK
ABOUT 25-50 MILES FURTHER NW AND A LITTLE DEEPER, GIVEN ALL THE DATA
I HAVE LOOKED AT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THAT HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN WITH THESE SYSTEMS FOR THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AS WELL.
IF THIS DOES INDEED HAPPEN, WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP SNOW ACCUMS A BIT
FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR CWA AS WELL AS IN THE WATCH AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WE SUSPECT ANY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE / POSSIBLE TROWAL WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF HERE AND
NE OF OUR CWA SINCE THE SFC LOW WILL ALREADY BE NE OF TORONTO.
HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL SLOWLY TO AROUND -18 TO -20 C,
IMPLYING WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WE'LL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE FOR OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
WHERE SIG ACCUMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
INLAND.

[beachbummer]

Baa humbug! Son is in Scott Co. Purdue......he wouldn't fly out this am.......soooooo lets see how good those road crews get on it! Any bets I-65 shuts down?

[Guest]

Here is a radar below that kinda backs the GFS and what GRR is saying. Notice the precip out in western TX/OK? And as well take note to how its now taking on a more sw to ne movement then the earlier wsw to ene movement.

[PurdueWx80]

Baa humbug! Son is in Scott Co. Purdue......he wouldn't fly out this am.......soooooo lets see how good those road crews get on it! Any bets I-65 shuts down?

I am almost certain it will be shut down tonight as may 70, 71 and 64. The NWS has upped totals again down here (just north of Louisville) for 12-18" with amounts to 2' possible. We have 6-7" and it's snowing heavily, I expect about 8 by the time this wraps up in an hour or two, w/ heavier snow tonight. The airport in Louisville has been reporting mostly snow but sleet is occuring on occasion. I haven't heard anything about delays or cancellations but I'm sure they're happening here and in Cincy.

[tomboudreau]

The radar that KOW posted is such a fine line. Its hard to believe that in SW PA, we are going to see mostly rain from this and you go about 100 miles to our west, and you run into all that snow.

[Scorpion]

Wow you guys are beyond lucky! I would kill to be living in Ohio right now. Several feet of snow just in time for Christmas. And to top it all off, good cozy fireplace weather.