NWS Houston Disc. Mentions Snow, Snow, Snow, Snow, Snow

[southerngale]

Yep, 5 times in one discussion!
Way down here in the No-Snow Zone.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL AFFECT SE TX THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WAS LOCATED AT 09Z
JUST PAST A LINE FROM JSO TO CLL TO 11R TO VCT. THE AREA OF RAIN THAT
HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS FINALLY DOING SO
TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN GLS AND MATAGORDA BAY. VERY COLD AIR WAS
LOCATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THIS AIRMASS WILL
GET MODIFIED SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TX.

THERE ARE THREE THINGS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST IS
FOG FOR THIS MORNING...THE SECOND AND THIRD ARE FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM POLK TO HARRIS TO BRAZORIA COUNTIES. EXPECT THE FOG TO BE
PUSHED OUT BY THE FRONT AND THE APPROACHING AREA OF RAINFALL BY 14Z.

CONCERNING THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE GFS GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COLD SIDE...BUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR
FOR AN EXTENDED TIME PERIOD THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS
MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INDICATE BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING FROM ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY AT GLS AND
PSX...FROM 06Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY AT IAH...AND FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY AT CLL. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE REASONABLE IN MODIFYING THE DAYTIME HIGHS FROM WHAT THE ACTUAL
MODEL OUTPUT STATES. THE SAVING GRACE MAY BE THE CLOUD COVER...
MEANING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR. ANYONE AFFECTED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES -- EVEN FOR A PERIOD OF SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AT A
TIME -- SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WHAT OCCURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.

NOW CONCERNING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INDICATES THAT THE JET ALOFT WILL STAY OVER SE TX. A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC...ARRIVING ACROSS
TX ON FRIDAY. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER
SE TX...PROBABLY SNOW -- THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN SLEET OR SNOW PROFILES FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO. THE
GFS AND ETA BRING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THE
PRECIP WILL EITHER BE SNOW OR NOTHING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION
SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED INSTEAD OF JUST RAIN. THE KEY WILL BE HOW
CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL GET AND HOW CLOSE THE MOISTURE
CAN GET.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/cgi-bin/ ... &version=0

[Janie34]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...THREE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOWN ON
SATELLITE LOOPS. FIRST IS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH MOST THUNDER
NEAR MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS APPEARS TO BE EASING UP SOME
AS H5 SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING. 2ND AREA IS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND NEAR MOISTURE AXIS AND STRONG H85 WINDS. THIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE. MORNING RAINS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY UNDER CONTROL BUT SURFACE LOW MOVING UP FRONT FROM SOUTH
TEXAS AND AFOREMENTIONED H85 WINDS AND MOIST AXIS REQUIRES MENTION
OF SEVERE...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. THINK 3RD AREA MOVING
ACROSS CONCHO VALLEY OF WEST TEXAS WILL PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA...AFTER FROPA. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR I-65 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. COOLER THURSDAY WITH AND COLDER STILL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP WINTRY MIX IN FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BUT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
STICK TO INAMINATE OBJECTS...IF IT DOES SNOW. GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS GO.

As to be expected, the local broadcast mets are hopping on this too.