Here's a Winter Storm Map I Found!

[Guest]

From almanac.com forums

What do you think?

[wxguy25]

there is NOT going to be 8-16" from ORD to DTW. Sorry. Wishful thinking Not happening.

EDIT -- And there will NOT be 12-18" of snow in NE NJ, LI, NYC, Coastal SNE.

[Guest]

This guy went off of models. Anyone else??

[Guest]

Your just saying that because you live in florida.

[wxguy25]

Your just saying that because you live in florida.

Im saying this b/c its FACT.

[Guest]

K. but i want to hear from someone that lives in the midwest or not in florida. And that was your opinion.

[wxguy25]

K. but i want to hear from someone that lives in the midwest or not in florida. And that was your opinion.

Why don't you want to hear from someone in florida?

And besides what does living in Florida have to do with how one forecasts?

[NWIASpotter]

Craig, would you like me to post my opinion on your map and my thoughts??

[Guest]

Yes!

[wxguy25]

Craig, would you like me to post my opinion on your map and my thoughts??

I would like to hear what you have to say.

[Guest]

YEs guy from iowa...i want your opinion.

[NWIASpotter]

Well first off, I do as well think that your map is a little overdone... I mean in reality, how often do you see a 8-16 inches of snow... Not that often.. And even though this is just a rough guess, not even the pros want to predict next week. This is because so many things can change, even straight from OAX NWS, FOR AN EXAMPLE...SURFACE TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OMAHA RANGE FROM 22 FROM THE ETA TO 58 ON THE GFS... THe low can go either way, it can shift the winds in the upper air, allow more or less cold air to dive in. The heavy rain in the south could cut off the gulf for even a small amount of time and dramatically change. Winter weather forecasting I think is the hardest to do, it is nowhere near summer convective forecasting.

the reason for NWS not making a solid forecast is because The models continues to flop around on what to do, and for the most part while heavy snow is a possibillity I cannot even ascertain a good amount to put to use. Your 3-6 inch thinking is correct, and if you are thinking heavier in that area, then maybe a 6-10 inch amount is feasable. And for the most part, you will not see FRZ RN/SLT followed with 18 inches of snow, I just don't see that happening... I'm not trying to be harsh.. I'm trying to be helpful...

[Guest]

We'll see....this guy is pretty good whis his maps. HE got it right with his other map.How much snow for Omaha? And were expected to see fzing rain for a period of time.

[donsutherland1]

Craig,

Wxguy25 is one of the better professional meteorologists around. One can learn much from reading his posts and the information he generously posts e.g., the most recent NAO checklist, etc.

I strongly advise that, at a minimum until you have a strong understanding of various synoptic patterns, you look for some model support. At this point in time and likely through at least the first week in January, the synoptic pattern is not one that would support a blockbuster snowfall in places such as New York City. In the absence of blocking, if something phases, it's likely headed well to the west of NYC and this would put the City in the storm's warm side. If weaker waves traverse the country, one is still not going to see any chance at a blockbuster snowfall.

My quick ideas for the time period ended January 7:

Boston: Maybe a rain ending as snow event (~1/5-7 timeframe); minor accumulation possible but not assured.
Providence: Same as Boston with lower risk of minor accumulation.
New York City: No accumulating snow.
Philadelphia: No accumulating snow.
Washington, DC: No accumulating snow.

I recognize that you're trying to learn--and wish you the best on this--and hope that you won't take my response the wrong way. However, I do believe that you would gain from listening to the insights of people like Wxguy25.

[Guest]

ummmmm.......What for Eastern NEbraska?? Thats where i live!

[NWIASpotter]

And I'll back Don up here.. Don is also a great person to learn by!! I have been learning for a long time, a lot by myself.. And as Don can contest I'm not too bad, especially at temps But, there is always a lot to learn when dealing with models. One helpful hint also is that some of the models have certain tendancies that you should learn, some have bias's north, south, etc.

[donsutherland1]

Craig,

I'll do this for Omaha. For the storm roughly around 1/4-5, I believe that the precipitation will start as rain. Some of the modeling keeps conditions sufficiently warm that most of the event proves to be rain.

Right now, I believe that the event could see rain change to freezing rain, sleet, and then finally snow. Some accumulations might be possible but it is too soon for me to speculate on amounts from roughly 120-132 hours out. For now, that's as far as I can go since there is still a lot of uncertainty. What I can say is that I do not see this being a blockbuster snowstorm for eastern Nebraska. Some snow--maybe even some accumulations--might be possible as the event concludes.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, NWIASpotter.

As you note, model biases are also important if one is to properly apply the model guidance. Trends can be crucial, as well.

[ssom04]

whoever made this map went a little overboard since most of that area in the heavy snow will be a mix of everything. And newer models suggest moving the area of heavy snow more north.









Now that looks like a classic winter storm!

I forgot to add this NO ONE WILL SEE 16 INCHES OF SNOW!

[CaptinCrunch]

Craig,

PLEASE listen, Donsutherland and Wxguy25 are some of the best meteorologist on this site and you will learn much from them..So be careful of how you talked to them and when you do you do it with the respect that they deserve.

I'm glad that you like this site, just don't go posting about everything and asking the same question over and over again like you do on that other site....PLEASE!!