WINTER STORM FRANK INBOUND

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

For all Southern California, I wrote todays final forecast on Frank! All radar images, and updates should go under this forecast.. Thanks!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thursday, December 30, 2004 6:00 PM

DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...

SYNOPSIS....WINTER STORM FRANK LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND WILL HIT US TONIGHT, AND LEAVE VERY QUICKLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN, AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ITS PASSAGE.

...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...

PRE-STORM FACTS: THE HIGH CLOUDS, AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAPPENED AS PREDICTED, SO FRANK IS ON TRACK!

THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST TORM, WINTER STORM EARL, BUT WILL STILL PACK A PUNCH ON THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD START TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AT FIRST, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, LA BASIN, AND BE OUT OF THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY 10AM NEW YEARS EVE. ONLY EXPECTING AN INCH OR 2 AT MOST OUT OF FRANK. LETS GIVE THE DYNAMICS DOWN. A 35KNT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET, GOOD UPFORCING ON THE FRONT, AND 100% 850MB RELITIVE HUMIDITIY, SO A MODERATE SIZED STORM WILL BE THE GAME.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER BETTER THAN LAST ANALYSIS SHOWED. -20C 500MB TEMPS, WITH 15-20 700MBVV WILL MAKE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT A GUARENTEE, THE CHANCE IS THERE. HOW STRONG? WELL NOT LIKE LAST STORM, BUT WE WILL GIVE IT A WEAK TO STRONG STAGE. NOT SEVERE EITHER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS, BUT SOME PEOPLE WILL LOSE POWER FOR A WHILE AS THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IT COULD BOW OUT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, MAINLY NORTHERN SECTION, AND NOTHING MAJOR. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS, AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED DUE TO WEAK HELICITY FIELDS.

WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK'S WINDS WILL BE PRETTY MODERATE, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT COULD REACH 40-50MPH GUSTS, THEN DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WILL START OFF 2005 WITH A BANG, SO STAY TUNED AFTER WINTER STORM FRANK PASSES
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

Thursday, December 30, 2004 6:00 PM

WINTER STORM FRANK WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOVING BY QUICKLY. DON'T EXPECT THE SAME WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS FROM THIS STORM. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH

Thursday, December 30, 2004 6:00 PM

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. NOTHING REALLY EXCITING, BUT THIS WATCH WILL BE DUE TO THE RAIN FALLING ON EARL'S DESTRUCTION. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES, IF THAT WITH FRANK, AND THIS WATCH WILL LAST FROM 6PM THURSDAY EVENING, TILL 2PM NEW YEARS EVE AFTERNOON.
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HIGH WIND WARNING

Thursday, December 30, 2004 6:00 PM

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT COULD REACH 4-50MPH GUSTS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR 20MPH. BROKEN SMALL TWIGS, AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
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TC

[ohiostorm]

It has a name?

[ssom04]

How can it be a winter storm if I didn't read anything about snow or sleet,freezing rain lol . Or do you call every storm that hits california in the winter a "winter storm"

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

every storm that hits california in the fall winter or spring is winter, mainly because it doesnt snow here, but in our mountains it does, and yes it has a name, because thats how I keep track of the storms that hit here.