Wintertime Severe Outbreak?

[jkt21787]

The last few GFS runs have been hinting at a severe weather event across the southern plains into the MS and perhaps TN/OH valleys around Tuesday and Wednesday. The low tracks through eastern Kansas into Northwestern MO and Southeastern Nebraska which will send the warm front well north and transport a lot of moisture and perhaps instability to the north. A strong cold front will sweep east through the region and could contain lines of strong thunderstorms with high winds. If enough instability develops, supercells could develop ahead of the front. Wind energy also looks quite sufficient for severe convection. Several NWS offices are already mentioning this potential in their AFD and the threat seems to be growing. Looks like at least a partial return to winter after the cold frontal passage for much of the region as well.

Any thoughts on the threat for severe weather this upcoming week?
This makes me think back to the January 3, 2000 outbreak across the southern states. Let's hope this is not a repeat.

[jkt21787]

I might also add that the flooding potential will be quite high from this system. With rains starting as early as tonight and continuing through mid week, much of this region has the potential for several periods of heavy rain and flooding. Coupled with snow melt in the Ohio Valley back into MO, the flooding there could be very significant. Very high QPF totals are put out over the next few days.

[NWIASpotter]

It looks like there will be some chance of some thunderstorms. Mostly likely they will be elavated I believe. Although if they do get to be surface based, with the amount of moisture availabe we could see some good thunderstorms. The severe threat seems to be pretty low right now...

[jkt21787]

It looks like there will be some chance of some thunderstorms. Mostly likely they will be elavated I believe. Although if they do get to be surface based, with the amount of moisture availabe we could see some good thunderstorms. The severe threat seems to be pretty low right now...

It looks like the main problems with this will be whether storms can become surface based or not. This time of year cloud cover could hamper instability and limit any threat, especially further north towards your way where the influence of gulf moisture may be lessended. This certainly requires watching though.

even if a severe threat doesn't materialize, flooding rains are likely with snow and ice further on the north and west side of the low.

[NWIASpotter]

Yes, it is definatly a winter storm maker... Ice for NE/IA.. Snow for MN and the Dakota's... A lot of possible heavy rain for the Gulf and southern Plains... Something to be watching for throughout the day tomorrow, and you are correct, any type of cloud cover could take away the chances completely.