New Discussion/New Map

[IndianaWxOnline]

First here is the discussion off my website:

The models have had a hard time with the placement and associated tracks of low pressures this year, and this storm
is no different, as the models are forecasting the low to be to far Northwest, because they are underestimating the
cold-air. If the models were bringing the cold-air farther South, then the low would track farther southeast, which it will,
as it will ride the boundary between the warm and cool atmospheres. 4 days ago, the GFS forecast model, which I
personally hate, but unfortunately most forecasters use, at least tv and government forecasters, had the low placed in
Northern Michigan on Tuesday Night and Wednesday, while my favorite and most used forecast model had a low
closer to the Ohio River. As I have said before, there are reasons I forecast what I do, even if I go against what every
other forecaster on the planet is saying and forecasting. The low will still track slightly farther southeast then what the
forecast models are indicating.

The reason I believe the low will track farther Southeast, as I said before is because the colder air will be farther South.
Forecasters cannot always just simply use forecast models, but at some point, they just have to stop and look at the
good old weather map. And if you at the weather map, you will see the first wave moving through the Western Lakes,
with temperatures already falling into the 20's in Iowa and Kansas. This first wave will help set the stage for the cold
air to slowly be sagged South into the Ohio Valley and possibly even as far South as the Ohio River. So on Monday,
wave number 1 exits the country, but does something before it leaves, and that is it pushes the cold front/stalled out
boundary farther South to I-70.

The second wave will move through tomorrow, and since the boundary is already setting up farther South across
Central Indiana, ice will be possible tonight and tomorrow across parts of Northern Illinois, Southern Michigan and into
Northern Indiana. Up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation will be possible in those areas. Again, wave number 2 will
have a more important role to play then just simply leaving it's own swath of ice, but it yet again will shove the colder
air and boundary farther South into Southern Indiana and possibly down to the Ohio River.

The third wave moves Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the third wave moves northeastward, a significant
icing event will break out from Central Missouri into Central and Eastern Illinois, Central and Northeast Indiana and into
Northwest Ohio. Up to a half-inch of ice accumulation is expected, which would be devastating to the area and
widespread power outages would be possible. North of the ice areas, a heavy snow event would be possible, into
Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and up to 6 inches of snow would be possible in those areas. I also think the ice
areas could change over to snow, especially by Wednesday Night and an inch or two of snow would be possible on top
of the ice.

Also another concern will be hydro concerns for Central and Southern Indiana as several inches of rain will be possible
on top of already saturated ground over the next 24 hours. Overnight tonight rain will become likely and precipitable
water values increase to 1.5 inches, which means that atmosphere will be moist tonight, and most areas could see
between a half and an inch of rainfall. More rain will move in tomorrow and Tuesday, and on top of the snow melt, rain
tonight, will cause some pretty descent flood concerns, so that will also have to be monitored very closely.

So needless to say, expect many updates over the next few days, and probably another one or two later today!

Second, here is my discussion and map:

This forecast is definitely going to be a tough one, but I favor a more Southern Track with a significant ice event across Central Missouri into Central Indiana and Ohio, with heavy snowfall falling from North Central Illinois, into Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan.

I think overall, the gfs has the "better" but not perfect handle on the storm, as I believe the second wave will pull down the shallow but cold airmass farther south, thus pushing the low farther south. One problem the models are already having is that they are underestimating the cold air just North of the boundary. In Central Missouri right now, there is a 20 degree temperature gradient within 14 MILES! That is why my heavy snow area is farther south then other maps I have seen, as I think there will be much colder air farther south then what the models are now and will pickup on.

To view my first call map, go to my website http://www.indianaweatheronline.com and there is a link at the top of the page to view the map.

[Skywatch_NC]

Great analysis/discussion and forecast, Brandon!

The significant icing event though obviously doesn't bode well at all for you there in Muncie, Purdue in Lafayette, my relatives in Anderson or my cousin in Indy. You all take care!

Excellent site, too!!

Eric

[sertorius]

IndianaWxonline:

Excellent discussion-I would also say that Kansas City has a chance at some signifiacnt ice as well-like you said, it all depends on the cold air-the models didn't even come close to todays temp. profile-my high was 34 and am now heading to 32 with icing possible tonight-I agree that this wave today and tomorrow will bring more cold air down and there is some really cold air to our north. Like I just posted: I really think the best way to view this storm, is to watch temp. profiles, radars and sat. begining on Tuesday and see what is comming-the models will have a terrible time with this I think-again, great discussion!!

[Indystorm]

Good work, Brandon. I am very concerned about icing here at Kentland from this system. RUC's currently are progging temps about one to three degrees colder than ETA and seem to be doing better with actual verification of the strength of the cold air. Weather advisory for Chicago north and west for ice through tomorrow afternoon at present....may shift south with this first round.....am most concerned about Tuesday night into Wednesday.....

[IndianaWxOnline]

Yep, in my zone forecast on my website, i talk about freezing rain for NW Indiana tomorrow!

[IWXSkywarndork]

Very good analysis Brandon. As everyone has been discussing, and as you pointed out, the models are not doing a very good job of not only tracking storms, but temps as well.

You have picked up on the storm tracking further south and east of the models, as they have all winter. Is there an inherent problem with them not figuring the strength of cold air masses, or is it just happening due to this winter's patterns?

[IndianaWxOnline]

I think a little bit of both, but I think the main problem with thise storm is the lack of picking up on the colder airmass, the models almost always have the airmass north of the lows to warm, at least this winter, and that leads the models to depict a farther NW track.