NWS - Fort Worth (interesting)

[Johnny]

Here is the cold that I believe a few mets/forecasters here have talked about. The NWS in Fort Worth decided to mention it in this afternoons discussion.


FINALLY...THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY DAY 6-7 THE COLDEST AIR SEEN THIS SEASON WILL
BE POOLING IN WESTERN CANADA AS AN ARCTIC HIGH FROM SIBERIA TRACKS
ACROSS ALASKA. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN/WHETHER THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
HEADING SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED THIS IS ONE TO WATCH.

[Brent]

[jeff]

Looks good to me. Strong and significant cold air outbreak possible the end of next week into next weekend. Could be very cold if the whole high dumps south and does not come in pieces.

Should be watched.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Houston sees something too!!!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED JAN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND CROCKETT AREAS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S QUICKLY POST FROPA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL
HAS BEEN LIGHT AND SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS THAT MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF THUNDER
THOUGH THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE EAST OF A BAY CITY TO HOUSTON TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF 9PM TO MIDNIGHT INLAND. LOW LEVELS
DRIES OUT BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND FRONT STALLING OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THEN WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO DEEPENING OF LAYER RH AND S/W
MOVING OUT OF MEXICO BRINGS BACK A THREAT OF STRATIFORM RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN PERHAPS ELEVATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
POINTING A QUICK WARM UP AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES
LOOKS SLIM AS THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS A BIG COLD SNAP BY
THE WEEKEND OF THE 15/16TH.

AGAIN I HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS/RAINFALL CHANCES AND
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT VARIABILITY OF MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES LOOKS LARGE.

[Johnny]

Well the Houston/Galveston NWS office has decided to mention it in their afternoon discussion also during this same time frame.




RAIN CHANCES
LOOKS SLIM AS THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS A BIG COLD SNAP BY
THE WEEKEND OF THE 15/16TH.

[CaptinCrunch]

LR models don't bring artic air in (N-TX) until the 14th and has it sticking around till the 17th, precip looks good but is pushed off to the E as cold air arrives. Now this is at 216 hrs and allot will change by then, I will wait for new models GFS, EURO, ECMWF and others to get a better reading for next week.