Winter storm evolution, crucial features tonight

[WXBUFFJIM]

As this winter storm continues to evolve tonight, what was a devastating icestorm for the Kansas City through Wichita and Oklahoma City Corridor with 1-2 inches of ice has evolved into a snow event for parts of Iowa, Nebraska, northern Kansas eastward through the Chicago area and into Detroit and Toledo as well. Areas south of Toledo and south of the Gary, Indiana area are experiencing ice and sleet at this time. At this point there are 80,000 customers in the dark in Topeka, Kansas and over 60,000 customers without power in Wichita, KS. In between those cities and further south into Oklahoma additional widespread power outages courtesy of numerous downed trees and powerlines has been reported and travel in the icestorm zone is not advised tonight even as thinga settle down from Kansas City down to Wichita and Oklahoma City.

What we need to watch very closely tonight is the development of a comma head feature over northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. Meanwhile an upper low is basically fading away in the central Rocky Mountain states. This upper low is basically transferring it's energy to this developing comma head and that's the key is how this comma head develops. If this comma head becomes even better established over the next few hours, expect a period of very heavy snow overnight tonight for the Quad Cities, which could amount to 1-2 inches per hour at times especially given the fact this comma head is expected to develop. Total accumulations could easily exceed a foot near the Quad Cities and possibly as much as 16-18 inches north and west of the Quad Cities if this very heavy burst of snow really become better established and lasts longer in duration.

Further east into Chicago, snow has been light most of the day with a few heavier bursts. 3-4 inches has been reported in the metro Chicago area so far and plenty more snow is expected. Again the key to this heavy snow potential overnight tonight is gonna be the development of the comma head feature further south and west and how that evolves overnight. There could be havy snowfall in Chicago overnight tonight in bursts with total accumulation of 8-12 inches north and west with locally higher totals. Meanwhile the lakefront and downtown Chicago area could see 8-10 inches of snow.

The snow will end Thursday morning for both the Quad Cities area and into Chicago. But problems will continue further east into Detroit will 4-8 inches of snow is likely tonight into Thursday morning. Then the next focus will be a developing snow and especially icestorm into the northeast particularly in the interior of New York and New England.

More updates overnight tonight. Take care everybody and be safe in the affected zones.

Jim