Next week for central plains

[sertorius]

Good morning everyone. Good luck to everyone in the Ohio Valley and upper North East-we are still feeling the affects of this storm!! It is a cold morning in Lawrence this morning-our temp. is at 2.3 degrees and I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop another degree or so before the sun comes up-this is why I consider this worse than the ice storm of 2002-our coldest in 2002 was 20 degrees-20 degrees w/out power is manageable-2 degrees w/out power is a desaster waitning to happen with pipes, kids etc. Earlier this week, they were touting a warmup by Friday-well, that looks to hold off untill prob. Monday-Friday and Saturday both look to be below normal esp. with the snow and ice on the ground and even Sunday when the warm air gets over us will prob. be cloudy due to warm air over all the ice ect. Sunday forcasted to be about 55-I'd go with about 45 and cloudy.

Today's 0z and 06z model runs have really backed off the cold air. The euro especially has with Sunday's 500 hts. not nearly as cold as what they looked like they would be. Gfs of course is much colder, but even it has backed off the idea of a 3-5 day arctic plunge. However, I'm not close to discounting this yet as the modles may be having toruble with a "pattern" shift. Both models do depict the same scenario as what just occured-a low comming across Kansas (euro's equals 1006-same as this past storm) with the 850 0 temps. across Nebraska. The euro had the same solution last week at this time for the past storm but look at our 850 temps for today-the cold was way under done. The gfs has us in a pretty good snow storm next Thursday with the 850 0 line well south of here. Obviously too early to look at precip for next week. However, it seems the arctic out break for next week has been tempered-but this could just be a hiccup-with the pna pegged to go somewhat positive and the nao possibly going negative, a cold out break in the central plains is reasonable historically during the switch untill it all moves east. Future runs of the euro will be interesting to see how it changes-it, according to what I have read, can underdo cold out breaks at times-I think we can assume that late next week there will be another front blast thru here and knock temps. back down to close to 0 (per gfs 850 temps. I don't have the euros for Friday/Saturday) the question: is this a true pattern shift where the trough will remain in the central plains and points east and we have sustained cold for a week-10 days or is this just another hiccup in the overall trough west/ridge east pattern and we begin to warm back up by a week from Sunday. Historically, we usually do have a week long period of true winter here every year-temps. in the 20's or colder-could this be it? Current model runs say this is just a hiccup and we will contineue in the over all south west flow-we shall see. Thanks for reading and have a good day-things are such a mess here and in Kansas City that my kids and I are both of school again today-as soon as it warms up to 8 degrees, I'll be out sledding down KU's campineli hill!!!!

[sertorius]

One more thought about next week-one thing the models may not be picking up on is the massive expanse of ice and snow-it is amazing to think but you can draw a line from Alert on the Arctic coast all the way to southern Kansas and that whole area is ice/snow covered-in this pattern, that is truly amazing and it has been a while since this has happened. Two points:

1. The warm up this weekend/early next week: the gfs has us in the 50's by Sunday-in this pattern that is quite reasonsable with the massive storm off of California-however, for the first 24-36 hours that south west wind will be commming over ice and snow-I would think that would give us some cloud cover Saturday and Sunday and aid in keeping our ice pack untill Monday-it will begin to melt Sunday, but the real dent won't be made until Monday-I would forcast highs 45-50 Sunday not 50-55. Of course there have been several occasions when the warm air has totally won over and wiped the snow pack out in 36 hours-but with this expanse, I don't see that happening ( we are aslo progged to have another cold shot Friday) It is amazing that with this over all pattern, we can have a snow pack last 3-4 days-that is rare here anyways, but in this pattern, it is down right crazy-what an amazing storm!!

2. By taking point 1 into consideration, the snow pack in Nebraska and the Dakotas prob. won't be going anywhere-thus, the cold progged to come down prob. won't modify untill it hits Kansas and even then there still might be a pack in the northern part of the state. The models may be missing the fact that this cold push next week will be much stronger than the weeks and not be modified at all.

3. The third point is, with all the snow pack, the cold air is not as far away-I doubt that Poitns North in Nebraska even get above Freezing untill Tuesday and the Dakotas will prob, stay 25 degrees or below all week-thus, as was said, the cold air is much much closer.


I have been thinking about this: the models are setting up the same scenario next week as we just experienced-the one next week could could be more severe with a stronger push of cold air and places that had ice this time, could be seeing all snow (if the cold air doesn't suppress things too far south) and places with rain could be seeing ice. Rather or not this cold lasts beyond 48 hours remians to be seen as does the moisture etc., however, I think that mid next week once again poses a major threat of winter weather for the central and prob. even the southern plains and if that occurs, the cold air will prob. be more entrenched than waht the models have progged this morning. Again, I'm a Latin teacher so all this is prob. bogus, but it is just my thoughts!!!

[aggiecutter]

The models will under-play the airmass coming into the southern plains late next week. This air is of Siberian orgin and will overwhelm the pattern between the Rockies and Appalachains. As a matter fact, all the models busted bigtime on the current air mass in the southern plains. 3 days ago, the GFS progged temps for Texarkana, which is on the border of extreme NE Texas and SW Arkansas, at a high of 60 and a low of 40 for today and tomorrow. Right now, it is 29 degrees and cloudy. The highs likely wont make it out of the mid-30's today, and the chance for freezing rain tonight is likely with lows around 30. All this with a strong SW flow aloft.

Next weeks air mass will be even colder than this one for the reasons you mentioned above, and the upper air configuration will be much more favorable than what we currently have for the air mass to come south. As a result, I'm very bullish on it getting brutally cold in the central and southern plains the end of next week.

[creisored]

I agree that it's gonna get REAL COLD next week.

Remember the cold snap that reached all the way to the Gulf States? I live in Minnesota and at that time, our temps were reaching about -10 below for highs and anywhere from -25 to -40 below for lows.

They are talking here in our forecast discussions about next week (around Jan. 15), the long range models are showing a very cold intrusion of arctic air, and this one would be the coldest of the season and last longer than the typical day or two shot of frigid air that is common here.

Bundle up!

[frankthetank]

Duluth...yeah...its cold up there...got that solid chunk of ice sitting right next to you! I remember a few years back when it was 90F (yes 90F) here in La Crosse in March or April and up there it was in the low 30's with fog due to ice cover of Lake Superior...oh well..atleast you have gorgeous summers...

So this cold air is going to make it further east...i've been right on the line with this current arctic plunge....warmer then Omaha for the last few days...been sitting between 14-18F for the last 48 hours (or so it seems)...

Hopefully this next air with be transient and settle down in the east .... i don't want that -30F crap parking over the top of me...

[sertorius]

Thanks for the responses and excellent discussion!!! Indeed, all models underdid this cold-even the euro-the euro did not have the cold air hitting here untill today but of course it got here on Sunday. Both the euro and the gfs have backed off on todays model runs-the euro's 500 hts. are much warmer than I would have expected for next Sunday-the gfs on the 06z run, has a real cold shot on Thursday (it also has Tuesday-Wed. much warmer-trending towards the euro-again!!) then begins to modify it by Sunday with nothing after that. (of course, it has lost the snow for me on Thursday!!!) I still believe that next week could be worse than this week for my area-more snow than ice (if we get precip) and much much colder-I think the models are not taking into account the massive snow pack nor how far south the cold air already is-I do not believe Nebraska reaches the 60's on Wednesday. The models are depicting the same set up as this week-an arctice front with a strong low comming across the central plains (both euro and gfs show this-the euro, which hit this past storm dead on has one much stronger) if my ideas are correct, then this cold shot which one is closer and two won't be as modified, will come much faster and be much deeper than the last one which could set up a wild 3 days-and in reality create a snow pack all the way into Texas. However, historical climatology is not on my side-we rarely get two major events w/in 7 days here and for sure, the south west flow can blow torch and warm things up quickly (I still say we are only in the 40's on Sunday and don't hit 50's till Monday-too much ice in southern Kansas)-but with the pna set to go positive and a possible neg. nao developing, that usually spells a cold snap for us during the switch. We shall see-no mets here will discuss it because they are too buisy talking about the warmth on Tuesday-I really do think next Wed. Thursday could prove to be quite the intense winter storm. def. bears watching!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From Accuweather. I know it's the GFS, but it's fun to dream. Hey it was right with our snow down here in South Texas at some points.

[frankthetank]

ECMWF:


looking @ this, our snowcover might get destroyed...with warm south winds...i wonder where that huge chunk of arctic air is going to go?


that low looks like it wants to go north if not right over my house...could get ugly ...freezing rain?? i hope not...

[sertorius]

Frankthetank:

If you look at the slp of the 7 day euro, there is a pretty strong low moving thru the southern plains. The other point is that the euor way under progged the cold for this week on its runs all the way up to Monday. I'm not saying its wrong-in this pattern it does make sense, I just am wondering if it is taking into account the snow cover and thus starting out to warm to begin with. No model had us at 2 degrees this morning with a high of 18 today untill Monday of this week-I think future runs of the euro are worth watching. The 168 hr 0z euro has a very similar set up that it did for this week-it tracked the low this week very well it just under did the cold. Obviously, the warm air in this overall pattern could bust the snow pack quickly-it's just that this time, the south west winds have to at first come over an ice pack all they way to northern Oklahoma-that in my opinion will slow down the warm up progged for here and thus possibly keep the snow pack in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Also, if the euro keeps a 1006 type low tracking thru Southern Kansas for the next 5-6 runs, I will buy that over any other storm track. If the low tracks further south, I can see the precip shield of this weeks storm just getting pushed south with my area getting the snow that Iowa and Nebraska had. This could all be bunk but I think late next week needs to be watched. I really think there is the possibility of an intense winter storm for the central and southern plains late next week. As far as how long will the cold air last-who knows-if the northern plains stay cold and we get an ice pack all the way down to Texas, it won't go anywhere soon. I think an important feature to watch is the actual temps. in the northern plains as compared to model progs. If Nebraska and South Dajota never reach the 50's or just reach it for one day, then I'd think that the ideas discussed in thewse threads are not to far off the mark. Anyways, I'm just a latin teacher so I prob. am way off the mark!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

In my N-TX winter forecast I called for a major Ice storm by mid January or shortly there after. That was back in September

[Air Force Met]

Next weeks air mass will be even colder than this one for the reasons you mentioned above, and the upper air configuration will be much more favorable than what we currently have for the air mass to come south. As a result, I'm very bullish on it getting brutally cold in the central and southern plains the end of next week.

A good analog is the outbreak of Jan 1963. SE Texas got into the Mid teens. The upper-air pattern is almost identicle with the 500 mb flow coming all the way from Siberia and dumping into the plains. Air density and gravity will do the rest to pull it south. The snow cover from the last two artic air plunges will also keep the airmass from warming as much as the December outbreak.

For those in SE Texas expecting another snow...I am not as certain that will happen. I think this will be a classic blue norther for SE Texas...meaning brutally cold air...with NWly flow aloft (in other words...very dry).

[sertorius]

Good morning-a few quick thoughts before I have to get ready for school/work!! The South West flow looks to win over the snow pack-my ideas of yesterday were kind of off-it will be cloudy here, but our temps. began to rise during the night a bit-we are at 17 currently and will prob. just make it above freezing-there is a weak area of low pressure moving south of us so possibly it will reenforce the cold a bit but not much-our ice pack will begin to disappear tomorrow and then almost be gone by Sunday. Mid next week still looks interesting and I really don't think the models have a handle on it-the EURO does not bring the cold in untill Thursday afternoon-the GFS on Wednesday-On the 0z run, the gfs brings the low much further south-on almost the same track as the one this week and puts us in a pretty good snow band Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. I am betting that the 06z run has a totally different solution and brings the low further north-the euro has the low much further north thru Nebraska-I would at this time have to go with the euro though it might be off on the cold air arrival as it has been switiching back and forth itself on that. IMHO, the gfs is trying to bring a front south like this past week and have a low come up the front on Wed. (again, this sloution will be gone on the 06z run!!! if it's not it will be on the 12Z-come on it's the gfs!!!!) where as the euro is trying to say that the low is the one to unleash the cold-i.e. the euro does not think the cold will come on it's own but needs to be dislodged. The euro has the cold lasting from Thursday thru at least Monday-the gfs is not nearly as bullish on the cold as on previous runs and begins to moderate us by Monday. Summarry: Next week still up in the air!!! It will be warm Monday and Tuesday and then begin to get very cold Wednesday or Thursday-precip still too early to tell, but if the gfs is onto something, we could see a good snow storm here next Thursday. It will be brutally cold next weekend here. This mid week storm/arctic out break looks to be our last chance of a significant snow maker for quite a well-after that, the pattern gets supressed (the euro has a low in the gulf-we can get snow from those-got 8 inches in 2000-but it is rare) then, we are under the influence of broad ridge for about 10 days beginnning the folowing week-the gfs takes the 6 degree 850 line all the way to Calgary the following week!!! Well, I'll try to post from school-all my syllabi have been thrown out the window for the week so I have quite a bit to do, but the weather is usually my break!!!!

[sertorius]

Hello-here goes an attempt at a discussion from a Latin teacher (who should be making new syllabi and Powerpoints for his classes-oh well!!!) Still, imho, next week is shaping to be an interesting week. Most mets and the NWS are down playing this week-KCNWS has a high of 31 for Friday!! A few points:

1. There is a surface frontal boundry currently on our door step-temps. in Nebraska have fallen almost 10 degrees in the past couple of hours due to it's passage. Nothing huge, but maybe enough to dent our temps. tomorrow and keep them in the lower 30's instead of the 46 that is progged. Ity looks like the low chugging thru. Missouri may be puling down some of that cold air to the North.

2. There is a huge decrep. between surface temps. on the gfs and the eta for Monday a difference of almost 20 degrees. The oz eta is still updating, but it appears it will have the same solution (note: the 18z gfs is trending cooler for Monday as compared to earlier runs. This could have big implications if the models begin to trend colder for early next week-the arctic push could even be stronger than already progged. Def. worth keeping an eye on

3. Wednesday/Thursday Morning: the GFS is screaming massive temp. declines on Wednesday-we start in the 50's and wind up in the 20's. The GFS also has surf. temps. below freezing by Wed. afternoon and has precip. about 1/2-3/4 of an inch woth thru. Thursday morning-if this gfs run pans out, we could have brief fr. rain then abotu 3-4 inches of snow Wednesday night and Thursday with howling North winds. The gfs is , I believe, having the front come and the low riding it as it moves-this takes the low just south and East of KC. The Euro, I have not seen the 12z run as my place did not intialize, has the low tracking well North and it is the low that brings in the front-that would prob. give us some lt. snow with the frontal passage. The snow lover in me wants to follow the gfs-the logical me says euro all the way. My forcast, if I had to make one, and everybody can be thankful that I don't!!! in general terms for the next 6 days: Saturday: partly cloudy-35 degrees-Sunday-Partly cloudy and 45; Monday: Cloudy and 34 (a mix of the gfs and eta) Tuesday: warm in anticipation of the front-high 48-51; Wednesday: high of 45 in the am with dropping temps. and strong North winds-rain changing to lt. snow thru. Thursday morning. Little snow accumalation. But, there is still a chance of more significant snows Wed. into Thursday-these arctic fronts can play havoc and sometimes these can produce heavey snow.

4. Down the road: This looks to be our last chance at a good weather maker for quite some time-the gfs and mrf really push the trough to the east quickly (we are in a transient pattern) and then hold it there for a while as the NAO looks to go neutral or slightly negative. My area is on the very front side of the torugh-we will prob. stay in the 30's to 40's with chances of lt. snow as short waves dig down into the trough from Canada-if we could get the sub tropical jet to launch something we could get a bigger snow-this pattern developing over the next 10-15 days massive ridge in the west and trough in the east is not the best for us-in fact, the gfs puts the plus 8 degree 850 line all the way into Southern Canada during this time frame-we will get small quick blasts of cold air that are in and gone. In reality, this is typical winter weather for here if you look at climo: 5-6 days of winter then 8-12 days of moderation. It is rare we get a 2-3 week winter pattern locked in here-it s more likley to get 2-3 weeks of temps. in the upper 40's to low 50's than 2 weeks of sustained cold and snow. Thus, after this next week, we will prob. have to wait for Feb. to see another significant event. Just a few random thoughts-thanks for reading, and I'll continue to update-groans from the crowd just like in my class room

[ChiTownMC]

So with this Weds/Thurs Chicago will probably see snow?

[sertorius]

ChitownMC:

I'm not really qualified to make a judgement-but I would say you guys are in much better position to see good snows over the enxt 2 weeks than I am and I would say that yes you would see all snow on Wed/Thursd. as the low will track to your south. Someone like donsutherland1 is who you want to ask that question-but good luck to you!!!!

[aggiecutter]

0z GFS at day 7 has a monster 1052mb high sitting on the Kansas-Missouri border. If that verifies, and its starting to like it will, everyone between the Rockies and Appalachains will be in the deep freeze late next week into the weekend. This could be a cold shot that people in the plains remember for years to come.

0z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml

[frankthetank]

day 7 ecmwf has that same high over SD @ 1046...

hmm...doesn't look good for the heating bills

maybe i shouldve moved to arizona

[sertorius]

Good morning everyone!! To be honest there are so many new solutions and changes (The Topeka NWS service even says between the lines this forcast the next 6 days is totally up in the air!!) and I don't have alot of time-so bear with me and I'll try to make some sense as my two boys clamor to get outside or do something.

1. The surface cold front of last night is now beating on my door and is very close to comming thru. Temps. to my North are some 20 degrees colder that I am. Some of that is due to snow pack and clear skies vs. my less snow pack and a low cloud deck but, there is no doubt the front is having an affect as thier winds have switched to the North-My wind vein is meesed up due to ice so I can't really measure my wind direction but with the a North flow interacting with a south westerly flow, I should be cloudy to partly cloudy a good chunk of today and that should keep temps. just around freezing-if the front clears here, I might not make it out of the 20's but a temp. of 34-35 seems a pretty good bet.

2. The gfs has gone thru big changes for the Monday-Wed. time frame with surface temps. It has on both the 0z and 06z run trended towards the eta with temps. in the 30's for every day. The eta is still trending colder than the gfs but it has had this same solution for the past two days on every run-that is pretty good consistencey. The eta never gets us into the 50's even for tomorrow-our high temp. is around 42 for tomorrow then back into the 20's for Monday-Thursday. This is significant because both bring a precip shield over us on Tuesday and bot have the 0 850 line well North-thus, both are hinting at another ice event for us on Tuesday and if the precip. trends are correct, we could see another 1/4 inch of ice on Tuesday. Again, the eta is colder and would have us in all ice-the gfs is a bit warmer, but seems to be trending towards the eta so I think Tuesday really needs to be watched. It looks as though the gfs is ozzing(not a good met term I know but that kind of describes it ) the cold air into this area beginning today if you look at the temp. profiles. We do warm up tomorrow, but the cold air comes back in on Monday. I realize the gfs will prob. change, but we are in the 48 hour times frame and the eta has had this solution for the past 2 days on every run-that is pretty consistent. Tuesday could be another interesting situation for this area.

3. Wednesday/Thursday event: The euro still has the same solution as it has-the low tracks well to my North with the cold air hitting here on Thursday. Got to buy that track but it could be a day or two late on the cold air. The euro does develop a low in Colorado that needs to be watched but, it also has a much stronger low in the gulf which would starve the one in Colorado of mositure and would be main the low. The low in the gulf could give us some snow if it is strong enough-we have had some good snows in the past as they give enough mositure over the top of the arctic air (2000 comes to mind where we got 8 inches from a low over New Orleans) The gfs now has the cold air slowly working in begining Monday with a low developing over the front and comming out into the Southern Plains on WEednesday-again, the gfs shows another icing event for us on wednesday with a change to snow on Thursday and then, in the last two runs, the gfs has really strenghtened the cold shot-we could have highs on Friday and Saturday in the single digits-the euor has the same strenghth of the cold air for Friday and Saturday. One thing i think we can bank on in the next 7 days, is that by next Thursday, it will become brutally cold here. The cold looks to last thru Monday when it will shift east and begin to modify here. The euro has warming up on Tuesday with the 500 hts.. slowly rising. Beyond that, we are in the pattern of brief cold air shots but pretty dry as we are in the NW flow of the eatstern trough. If I ws living on the east coast, i would be very excited about the 5-10 day time frame-they might have a coastal low develop next weekend.

Basically, the models really are not sure what to do with the next 6-7 days. The ETA and EURO have been the most consistent but I think you have to really lean towards the eta on surface temps. as it has had this solution for the past 2 days and even this mornings run and with the gfs trending that way, the eta may have had this pegged from the start. possibly the front now just to my north will move south and stall out just like what happened last week an we have a shallow arctice air mass in place untill the deeper one arrives-if this is the case, the temp. gradient develpoped between here and say Northern Oklahoma or Sothern Kansas could be pretty big and thus, the storms may really intensify. According to the eta, we are in the 20's to low 30's Monday-Wednesday but Wichita is in the 50's-that could really play havock with the solutions. If I were to make a forcast:

Saturday: Cloudy: High 34
Sunday: Cloudy-Party Cloudy High 42
Monday: Cloudy High 30
Tuesday: Cloudy 40% chance of rain/Freezing rain high 35 with a chance of a pretty good icing event Tueday night
Wed. lt. fr. rain with a high of 31 with temps. dropping
Thursday: Lt. snow with a high of 25 then clearing.
Friday-Sunday: Party Cloudy and brutally cold: Highs in the single digits to teens wiht lows below 0.
By Monday it moderates.

I'm sure I'll bust as tomorrow could be much warmer as could Monday-Wednesday-but I just have to go with the consistent eta on the surface-since I can't get surface data from the euro, I still believe the temps. at the surface could be below freezing even if the 500 and 850 temps are in the 8 degree range. To be sure, this next week is quite uncertain and anything can happen-but it looks currently like this week will be much colder than prev. thought and we might even keep some of our snow pack. Thanks for reading and have a god day!!

[sertorius]

One thing that still puzzles me is the eta still comming in so much colder at the surface for the Monday-Wed. time frame-We could have highs in the mid 30's on those days instead of the mid 40's. If that were the case, then things could really pan out differently for this area next week. I think it is something worth watching. We shall see.

[sertorius]

I have been posting my random thoughts in the Lawrence/KC thread about the mid week storm. Again, I'm just a Latin teacher, but I really believe this event this week is being under played for the Lawrence/KC area-
1. the eta has us at or below freezing for the whole time before the arctic front arrives-it has called for that since last Friday-with the chance of some lt. moisture in the area for the next 2 days, there is a chance here of some lt. freezing rain-severe no, but surely enough to make the raod ways a mess-I think it is something to watch out for. The gfs busted badly on surface temps for early this week-as of Saturday it had us at close to 60 degrees for today-we will not make it past Freezing-The eta was onto something since Friday and has done well so far. Lt. fr. rain/drizzle is a distinct possibility for this area over the next couple of days as is plain rain.

2. I do not have precip. amounts for the euro, so I can only go by the track-but the euro on the 0z today had a 998 low tracking thru southern Kansas and Missouri in the Thursday-Friday time frame with another one on its heels. The 0 850 line won't be here untill Thursday, but if you take that track and the eta temps. for Wed. Thursday, we have a chance at some more ice and then snow on the back side. The gfs and mrf, does give us some pretty good precip out put for this time frame-the eta not so much-1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid. This also needs to be watched in the next 48 hours or so.

3. Summary: I think there is a chance of lt. freezing rain for the next 48 hours for this area-with the cold surface, a 2-3 hour freezing rain event, could leave the roads a mess-power outages, no, but, travelling could be much more difficult than last week. The gfs busted on surface temps but the eta was on target-I'm following the eta. It also appears we have the same scenario setting up as last week with a low tracking south of this area (again, earlier it was progged to go North-now the euro is bringing it south) following a weak boundry that made it much further south than anticipated. Thus, if it is below freezing Wed., we could have another ice event here followed by some snow and then brutal winds-I'm not talking a huge winter storm for here, but one that may warrant a winter weather advisory for the time period. What could go wrong: 1. It could get worse and we could have a full blown winter storm with brutally cold air behind it. 2. The cold front now over far southern Kansas, could make a run back North as a warm front and we have all rain before the arctic front passes then just some flurries. IMHO, the next few days are up in the air-It may be best to follow radar and temp. profiles and go from there-the gfs is having troubles with this shallow cold air. I am sticking with my forcast as I posted in the KC/Lawrence area thread-but maybe more precip. Wed./Thursday. I hope this makes some sense-I have to get back to preparing a powerpoint for class, but I needed a break!!!