WOW! It's been YEARS since I've seen a pattern like THIS, virtually no breaks in between systems or at least 1 DAY in between.....yesterday was partly cloudy but COLD (low of -4°, high of 26°)
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARDS TO PCPN AMOUNTS. GFS HAS TWO TIMES THE PCPN OF THE ETA. THE GFS HAS SHOWN STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY... AND SO HAS THE ETA. UNSURE OF WHICH SOLUTION WILL BE CORRECT. HAVE GONE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF THE ETA AT THIS TIME BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE VALUES IF ETA COMES IN LINE WITH GFS. LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 6000 AND 7000 KT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY ALONG WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE RIM FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS. UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. A DEEPER...COLDER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM TO THE STATE. DF && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
One right after another!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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azsnowman
- Category 5
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- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
One right after another!
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Miss Mary
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azskyman
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- Location: Scottsdale Arizona
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Mary....saw the photos of your own flooding...not unlike some of what we are seeing here in the valley. I know you like the snow, but for now you have to put up with all that water too!
Dennis...current storm will surely not allow the take-away game on snowfall and will probably give you a fresh coat. Looks like the more significant kick will come late in the weekend or early next week, so we need to watch to see how that develops as well.
Just heard on the way to work that Sunrise (what's that, about 30 minutes east of you?) is expecting 5-10,000 skiers this weekend! And that brings an overall perk to all of the economy in Pinetop...if you can just put up with that small number of crazies that are always unprepared. Hope you don't find yourself on a search a rescue with all the extra folks in the neighborhood.
Enjoy the snow.
Dennis...current storm will surely not allow the take-away game on snowfall and will probably give you a fresh coat. Looks like the more significant kick will come late in the weekend or early next week, so we need to watch to see how that develops as well.
Just heard on the way to work that Sunrise (what's that, about 30 minutes east of you?) is expecting 5-10,000 skiers this weekend! And that brings an overall perk to all of the economy in Pinetop...if you can just put up with that small number of crazies that are always unprepared. Hope you don't find yourself on a search a rescue with all the extra folks in the neighborhood.
Enjoy the snow.
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azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
[quote="azskyman"]Mary....saw the photos of your own flooding...not unlike some of what we are seeing here in the valley. I know you like the snow, but for now you have to put up with all that water too!
Dennis...current storm will surely not allow the take-away game on snowfall and will probably give you a fresh coat. Looks like the more significant kick will come late in the weekend or early next week, so we need to watch to see how that develops as well.
Just heard on the way to work that Sunrise (what's that, about 30 minutes east of you?) is expecting 5-10,000 skiers this weekend! And that brings an overall perk to all of the economy in Pinetop...if you can just put up with that small number of crazies that are always unprepared. Hope you don't find yourself on a search a rescue with all the extra folks in the neighborhood.
I'm telling ya, ANYONE who complains about business this year is NUTZ! We've had the MOST successful summer/fall and now winter in the history of Pinetop. Revenue is up OVER last years (2003) by some 76%
This past holiday season was the BUSIEST I've EVER seen........we ordered a pizza from Joeys Pizza on 29 Dec (the reason I'm stating this is the obvious) it took OVER 1.5 HOURS just to GET the pizza. Charlie Clarks "Phhfffffft!"....as you know, we live just behind Charlies by 3 blocks, they were SO crowded that people were parking at St. Marys Catholic Church!
NOW....attm, it APPEARS the system is going to start out as snow, then change OVER to RAIN.........IF this happens, may God have MERCY on us, I mean, RAIN on a 36" PLUS snowpack
Dennis
Dennis...current storm will surely not allow the take-away game on snowfall and will probably give you a fresh coat. Looks like the more significant kick will come late in the weekend or early next week, so we need to watch to see how that develops as well.
Just heard on the way to work that Sunrise (what's that, about 30 minutes east of you?) is expecting 5-10,000 skiers this weekend! And that brings an overall perk to all of the economy in Pinetop...if you can just put up with that small number of crazies that are always unprepared. Hope you don't find yourself on a search a rescue with all the extra folks in the neighborhood.
I'm telling ya, ANYONE who complains about business this year is NUTZ! We've had the MOST successful summer/fall and now winter in the history of Pinetop. Revenue is up OVER last years (2003) by some 76%
This past holiday season was the BUSIEST I've EVER seen........we ordered a pizza from Joeys Pizza on 29 Dec (the reason I'm stating this is the obvious) it took OVER 1.5 HOURS just to GET the pizza. Charlie Clarks "Phhfffffft!"....as you know, we live just behind Charlies by 3 blocks, they were SO crowded that people were parking at St. Marys Catholic Church!
NOW....attm, it APPEARS the system is going to start out as snow, then change OVER to RAIN.........IF this happens, may God have MERCY on us, I mean, RAIN on a 36" PLUS snowpack
Dennis
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azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
WELL.....here we GOOOooooo!
Statement as of 1:00 PM MST on January 07, 2005
... Another moist winter storm to affect much of northern Arizona
through Tuesday...
A broad region of low pressure will impact northern and central
Arizona this afternoon through Tuesday. Heavy rains across the lower
elevations and substantial accumulating snows are forecasted for the
Northland.
The mountainous locations along the Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab
Plateau can expect significant snowfall amounts. Snow levels will
start out this afternoon around 4000 feet... slowly rising to
6000-6500 feet during the day Saturday... continuing to rise to
around 7000 feet during the day Sunday... before plummeting to 5000
feet late Monday into Tuesday.
A Snow Advisory has been issued tonight through Saturday for
portions of western Arizona above 6000 feet. Please see phxwswfgz
for specific details.
There is a definite concern for flash flooding across portions of
Yavapai... Coconino... and northern Gila counties. By Sunday... these
locations can see 1 to 2 inches or more of heavy rainfall from this
storm system. An additional 1 to 2 inches can be expected by Tuesday
as a stronger storm system moves through.
Recent heavy rains and flooding events occurring in the above valley
locations over the past two weeks have saturated the soils and
raised river and stream heights. Thus... there is a potential for
flash flooding in areas like the Oak Creek Canyon area and the
valleys of northern Gila and Yavapai counties.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Please see phxffafgz for
specific details.
This is a potentially dangerous weather situation. Please stay tuned
to NOAA Weather Radio... our website at
weather.Gov/Flagstaff... or your favorite weather provider for the
latest forecast updates.
Statement as of 1:00 PM MST on January 07, 2005
... Another moist winter storm to affect much of northern Arizona
through Tuesday...
A broad region of low pressure will impact northern and central
Arizona this afternoon through Tuesday. Heavy rains across the lower
elevations and substantial accumulating snows are forecasted for the
Northland.
The mountainous locations along the Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab
Plateau can expect significant snowfall amounts. Snow levels will
start out this afternoon around 4000 feet... slowly rising to
6000-6500 feet during the day Saturday... continuing to rise to
around 7000 feet during the day Sunday... before plummeting to 5000
feet late Monday into Tuesday.
A Snow Advisory has been issued tonight through Saturday for
portions of western Arizona above 6000 feet. Please see phxwswfgz
for specific details.
There is a definite concern for flash flooding across portions of
Yavapai... Coconino... and northern Gila counties. By Sunday... these
locations can see 1 to 2 inches or more of heavy rainfall from this
storm system. An additional 1 to 2 inches can be expected by Tuesday
as a stronger storm system moves through.
Recent heavy rains and flooding events occurring in the above valley
locations over the past two weeks have saturated the soils and
raised river and stream heights. Thus... there is a potential for
flash flooding in areas like the Oak Creek Canyon area and the
valleys of northern Gila and Yavapai counties.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Please see phxffafgz for
specific details.
This is a potentially dangerous weather situation. Please stay tuned
to NOAA Weather Radio... our website at
weather.Gov/Flagstaff... or your favorite weather provider for the
latest forecast updates.
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Just now starting to snow HEAVY again...this could be a WHOOPER, another 12-14" on TOP of the 36" we've already got, "Got SNOW?"
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southerngale
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