WXBLOG returns!! Complete update and FEB outlook...

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

[Anonymous]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

In your page you say... **IF** and I stress the word **IF** this is correct then we would be talking about a MAJOR east coast snowstorm from Northern SC to Maine. A MILLER B situation nonetheless (clipper bombs off the coast), BUT with the SLP deepening well below 1000mb before reaching the VA capes, this is likely a HIT for PHL-NYC and certainly New England. What do you mean for the Philly part?

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

On your page you say MILLER B Situation. What does that mean?

A Type of major east coast snowstorm where a Clipper re-develops along the coast and Bombs out.

[Anonymous]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

On your page you say MILLER B Situation. What does that mean?

A Type of major east coast snowstorm where a Clipper re-develops along the coast and Bombs out.

What does "bombs out" mean?

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

On your page you say MILLER B Situation. What does that mean?

A Type of major east coast snowstorm where a Clipper re-develops along the coast and Bombs out.

What does "bombs out" mean?

Extreme surface cyclogenesis. Any Surface low which deepens at least 24mb in 24 hours is the technical definition. But we tend to use the term a bit more loosely to describe any strong SFC low.

[sertorius]

wxguy25:

Thanks sooo much for the info!!! You can be my friend again as you mention snow for the central plains the first half of Feb.!!!!! Kidding-excellent discussion as usuall. I stated earlier today that I thought by the end of the month and begining of Feb. we would see more chances of winter weather. i based this on the idea of the PNA going slightly negative with a possible neutral or slightly negative nao for that period-historically that is a winner for this area-we have had many good snows in that scenario. Am I garunteed anything-no-this is the central plains-it could be 85 degrees the whole month the way our weather goes, but with those signals (if the pna is 1 to negative 1 or the nao is 1 to -1 we are in business-or, the nao has to way positive and pna way negative-like it was the past two weeks-i.e. feb. 1989 when we had the arctic out break-the signals were incredibly similar to right now) we have a pretty good shot. i just hope the cold air and moisture meet up and we have no more ice-i still have ice in my yard from last week!!! By the way, I'm not writting the next two weeks off yet either-we are still in the lee side of the trough and could get something-it will be tough as we will be dry, but the euro and gem are hinting at something for next weekend-the gfs couldn't stay solid on something for anything. Thanks again-I really enjoy your posts and thanks for sharing the information!!

[wxguy25]

wxguy25:

Thanks sooo much for the info!!! You can be my friend again as you mention snow for the central plains the first half of Feb.!!!!! Kidding-excellent discussion as usuall. I stated earlier today that I thought by the end of the month and begining of Feb. we would see more chances of winter weather. i based this on the idea of the PNA going slightly negative with a possible neutral or slightly negative nao for that period-historically that is a winner for this area-we have had many good snows in that scenario. Am I garunteed anything-no-this is the central plains-it could be 85 degrees the whole month the way our weather goes, but with those signals (if the pna is 1 to negative 1 or the nao is 1 to -1 we are in business-or, the nao has to way positive and pna way negative-like it was the past two weeks-i.e. feb. 1989 when we had the arctic out break-the signals were incredibly similar to right now) we have a pretty good shot. i just hope the cold air and moisture meet up and we have no more ice-i still have ice in my yard from last week!!! By the way, I'm not writting the next two weeks off yet either-we are still in the lee side of the trough and could get something-it will be tough as we will be dry, but the euro and gem are hinting at something for next weekend-the gfs couldn't stay solid on something for anything. Thanks again-I really enjoy your posts and thanks for sharing the information!!

Thanks for the kind words. I think the STJ will become a bit more active during the middle to late portion of FEB which could help the chance for more snow in your area.

[yoda]

Disregard last nights 0z GGEM run. It had 4 lows.. and even an ocean storm... well, I disregarded it....

[donsutherland1]

Great discussion and maps, Wxguy25. I agree with the idea of the pattern temporarily reverting back to the earlier one as it reloads and then the cold/snow returning again to the East. 1968-69 also continues to rank high in terms of similarities to 2004-05 in the ENSO regions.

At this time, the pattern is increasingly exciting for the possibility of East Coast snow. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Given past analogs, I would be surprised if at least part of the East Coast didn't receive a significant snowfall before the pattern broke.

[wxguy25]

Disregard last nights 0z GGEM run. It had 4 lows.. and even an ocean storm... well, I disregarded it....

I don't think the GGEM is right. I think the ECMWF is. Which is why I said this:

I’m not sure I buy this solution since both the 0z and 12z ECMWF runs did close this feature off over SE Canada thereby developing the 50-50 low.

[wxguy25]

Great discussion and maps, Wxguy25. I agree with the idea of the pattern temporarily reverting back to the earlier one as it reloads and then the cold/snow returning again to the East. 1968-69 also continues to rank high in terms of similarities to 2004-05 in the ENSO regions.

At this time, the pattern is increasingly exciting for the possibility of East Coast snow. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Given past analogs, I would be surprised if at least part of the East Coast didn't receive a significant snowfall before the pattern broke.

I have a suite of other analogs. 1968-69 is one of them but not a top analog b/c there was a huge cold pool in the GOA that year (completely different from 2004-05), and the Atlantic signal was FAR more favorable for the NAO to be negative in the means (as it was). So for those reasons it was not that high on my list, but made the list nonetheless.

I have every confidence that IF the Clipper becomes the New 50-50 low and phases w/ the PV over SE canada that the follow-up s/w will develop a Significant or Major east coast snowstorm. For who, and exactly how much? its impossible to tell right now.

But the Phasing MUST occur in order to send the NAO strongly negative. the PV has got to be out of BI/Labrador.

[Dave C]

Does it appear to you that there is some pretty serious digging of the trough in this eve's sat. pics. I'm getting a feeling that the ocean storm which is just starting to form off SE coast may be stronger than forecasters feel as it moves to our south Sun-Mon. It sure is going to be an interesting couple of days here!!

[wxguy25]

Ah...now this is more like it. 0z SUN GGEM looks far more competent than the 0z SAT run.

The PV slides WSW from Labrador/Davis strait to Western BI/Northern Hudson Bay at the same time as the trough is amplifying over Scandinavia. This allows the Block west of Ireland to retrograde northwestward toward greenland.



BOTH of these positions would qualify as a -NAO.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/naostuff/naoreg

Notice the block retrogrades from AREA # 4 to AREAS 1, and 3.

[Wnghs2007]

How about the new Euro....

[wxguy25]

How about the new Euro....

Problematic.




The PV has to get away from BI in order for the NAO to really turn negative. That is definitely 50-50 low but b/c of the vortex up there you aren't getting much in the way of height rises over Greenland. Upshot...As long as the 50-50 is there the PNA ridge remains intact and the PAC jet is suppressed.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ah, Such Great Analysis! Miller B......... One thing I don't like....... Someone gets SCREWED. Miller A...... No one gets Screwed!

Feb 2005, looks to be a good month.....

[wxguy25]

Ah, Such Great Analysis! Miller B......... One thing I don't like....... Someone gets SCREWED. Miller A...... No one gets Screwed!

Feb 2005, looks to be a good month.....

Well this time I don't think Its going to be DCA or BWI (probably not PHL either) that get screwed. I just had a look at the 12z ECMWF. The 50-50 develops right on time as the clipper closes off, and sends the NAO negative by 168 hrs. So the ideas expressed in the blog section last night seem to be on track.

Now this is where it gets complicated. Since were dealing w/ a somewhat suppressed height Field over the EUS as a result of the 50-50 low/ Rex blocking over the NW Atlantic, the s/w may just get pushed out to sea once it begins to interact w/ the "wall" (if you will) over SE Canada. This in a way reminds me of what took place on JAN 27-28 WRT the SLP area only being allowed to move Northward to a point before abruptly cutting east out to sea in response to the block.

I do think this event will be a significant east coast snowstorm but for who remains to be seen until we can work out the track of the s/w and SLP areas. Right now i would be inclined to lean toward areas North of RDU but south of NYC.

Perhaps a S PA, Central, S NJ, DE, MD, VA, N NC event. But we shall see.

[DLI2k5]

Hey there Wx! I'm from SC here and very curious to know what are the prospects for the possibility of some accumulating snow here. You had mentioned the upper or nothern part of SC maybe getting in on the act.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ah, Such Great Analysis! Miller B......... One thing I don't like....... Someone gets SCREWED. Miller A...... No one gets Screwed!

Feb 2005, looks to be a good month.....

Well this time I don't think Its going to be DCA or BWI (probably not PHL either) that get screwed. I just had a look at the 12z ECMWF. The 50-50 develops right on time as the clipper closes off, and sends the NAO negative by 168 hrs. So the ideas expressed in the blog section last night seem to be on track.

Now this is where it gets complicated. Since were dealing w/ a somewhat suppressed height Field over the EUS as a result of the 50-50 low/ Rex blocking over the NW Atlantic, the s/w may just get pushed out to sea once it begins to interact w/ the "wall" (if you will) over SE Canada. This in a way reminds me of what took place on JAN 27-28 WRT the SLP area only being allowed to move Northward to a point before abruptly cutting east out to sea in response to the block.

I do think this event will be a significant east coast snowstorm but for who remains to be seen until we can work out the track of the s/w and SLP areas. Right now i would be inclined to lean toward areas North of RDU but south of NYC.

Perhaps a S PA, Central, S NJ, DE, MD, VA, N NC event. But we shall see.

We shall see is right...... I been looking forward to this, but I hope it just trends northward a bit, so NYC metro can get in the fun.......

[wxguy25]

Ah, Such Great Analysis! Miller B......... One thing I don't like....... Someone gets SCREWED. Miller A...... No one gets Screwed!

Feb 2005, looks to be a good month.....

Well this time I don't think Its going to be DCA or BWI (probably not PHL either) that get screwed. I just had a look at the 12z ECMWF. The 50-50 develops right on time as the clipper closes off, and sends the NAO negative by 168 hrs. So the ideas expressed in the blog section last night seem to be on track.

Now this is where it gets complicated. Since were dealing w/ a somewhat suppressed height Field over the EUS as a result of the 50-50 low/ Rex blocking over the NW Atlantic, the s/w may just get pushed out to sea once it begins to interact w/ the "wall" (if you will) over SE Canada. This in a way reminds me of what took place on JAN 27-28 WRT the SLP area only being allowed to move Northward to a point before abruptly cutting east out to sea in response to the block.

I do think this event will be a significant east coast snowstorm but for who remains to be seen until we can work out the track of the s/w and SLP areas. Right now i would be inclined to lean toward areas North of RDU but south of NYC.

Perhaps a S PA, Central, S NJ, DE, MD, VA, N NC event. But we shall see.

We shall see is right...... I been looking forward to this, but I hope it just trends northward a bit, so NYC metro can get in the fun.......

So far the 12z UKMET is the MOST EXTREME solution I could find. Has a Significant snowstorm RIC to Maine.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/ukmet00_panel.gif


So far the 12z UKMET is the MOST EXTREME solution I could find. Has a Significant snowstorm RIC to Maine.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/ukmet00_panel.gif


The NOGAPS is similar to the 12z ECMWF w/ the SLP kept south. Timing differs considerably also. But while the NOGAPS isn’t depicting much in the way of moisture initially—RATIOS should be impressive w/ the 528 gpm thickness contour running through the northern part of the precip shield.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/no_am ... hk_132.gif
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/no_am ... hk_144.gif
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/no_am ... nd_144.gif

Precip falling in that air mass w/ 1000-500mb thickness of < 5280 gpm would suggest to me at least a 17:1 ratio. The only caveat I could think of is that the airmass COULD be too cold for depositional growth or riming. But im getting WAY ahead of myself here.