Burn Baby Burn

[Portastorm]

Alright Burn1, here it is. I was wrong. Wrong about the Texas freeze. Wrong about the 3-4 days of substantially below normal temps for south Texas. And ... (gulp) ... I guess you were more right than I was.

HOWEVER, you mentioned something about a day or two or slightly below normal. In Austin today we had highs and lows about 10-12 degrees below normal. That is more than "slight" in my book. But that being said, I promised I would post on Monday and figured I would get it out of the way now. Looks like a near normal to slightly above week for most of Texas. So much for winter.

Until (IF) that stupid trough in the East backs up, it'll be more of the same.

Someone wake me when that happens ...

[JenyEliza]

In Atlanta we've got the cold...but it is so incredibly dry here there is no way in hades we'll be seeing snow this week. What good is cold weather, if there's no snow?

If we're not having snow, I'd just as soon have the mild temperatures and sunny days you're having.

At my house right now it is 27, forecast to be 22 overnight, with a warm up to tomorrow's high 39. Sunny, DRY (ie, Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow), and COLD.

Enjoy your mild weather...wish we were going to be mild (since we're not getting snow).

Jeny

[Burn1]

Hey I am just an amateur weather buff.....Guys like Air Force Met will
get it right 9 out of 10 ten times compared to me.....Just having a little
fun and following the NWS maps that as AFM says are "Garbage".....I'm
sure he is right and I can agree...

Strange weather here in S. Fl......Currently 52 which is about 10 degrees
lower than local mets were calling for....Low off east coast pulled down
some cooler air than was originally forecast.....

However by S. FL standards its been pretty mild winter.......Usually get
one or two shots of 30's down here in winter don't see it happening this
year though.....

Hey I still think the snow storm over your area (se texas etc...) was one
of the most amazing things I may see weather wise in my lifetime......
Not so much that it snowed, but the accumulations were insane.....

[sertorius]

Portastorm:
Don't dispair!!! The pna is progged to go negative in about 10 days and the trough should retorgrade back west. I'm actually quite excited about the end of the month and Feb. for the central plains and the long range models (gfs and mrf) have for the past 2 days shown a return to a bit below average temps. for this area. We shall see, but winter is not over yet!!

[vbhoutex]

Burn1, I must add my salutations to Portastorms, just transferring them to the Houston area as opposed to Austin. Like Austin's temps ours are running and expected to run about 8-10 degrees below normal for the next two days then go back to normal or slightly above. Extreme we did not get, cold we are!

[Portastorm]

Portastorm:
Don't dispair!!! The pna is progged to go negative in about 10 days and the trough should retorgrade back west. I'm actually quite excited about the end of the month and Feb. for the central plains and the long range models (gfs and mrf) have for the past 2 days shown a return to a bit below average temps. for this area. We shall see, but winter is not over yet!!

Sertorius, I certainly hope you are right! I do see the trof backing west per the European model so perhaps there is some hope after all.

Actually some of the best winter weather events in my part of Texas have happened late in January and early February, so winter is not over yet. Thanks for the reminder!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm:
Don't dispair!!! The pna is progged to go negative in about 10 days and the trough should retorgrade back west. I'm actually quite excited about the end of the month and Feb. for the central plains and the long range models (gfs and mrf) have for the past 2 days shown a return to a bit below average temps. for this area. We shall see, but winter is not over yet!!

Sertorius, I certainly hope you are right! I do see the trof backing west per the European model so perhaps there is some hope after all.

Actually some of the best winter weather events in my part of Texas have happened late in January and early February, so winter is not over yet. Thanks for the reminder!!

Ok Burn, you were right so don't say we didn't come back for our crow. Portastorm is correct. Some of our coldest and wildest winter events have happened in February like the infamous winter of 1899 that froze over CC and Galvaston Bays. We'll have a couple of Arctic like fronts before February is over. And we seem to have a cool snap in March that usually conincides with Spring Break.

[gboudx]

Burn1, even though I didn't "play" in this forecasting game, I applaud you for sticking to your opinion and never backing down. Even in the face of more experienced mets telling you that climatology didn't support your forecast. However, here in Big D, the past 2 days we're running about 10 degrees below normal on lows and highs. I don't consider that to be "extreme".

[Stormsfury]

Latest datasets indicated that the PNA ridge will not break down ... and the transition to a sustainable winter in the Eastern US may finally occur with the pattern returning to a more typical one for winter ...

Also more and more hints of a sustainable -NAO are in the cards, with the possibilities of the first significant snow for portions of the Eastern US, where in many areas (Mid-Atlantic) haven't received measurable snowfall all winter long ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Latest datasets indicated that the PNA ridge will not break down ... and the transition to a sustainable winter in the Eastern US may finally occur with the pattern returning to a more typical one for winter ...

Also more and more hints of a sustainable -NAO are in the cards, with the possibilities of the first significant snow for portions of the Eastern US, where in many areas (Mid-Atlantic) haven't received measurable snowfall all winter long ...

SF

I agree ! Even February looks like a major improvement for much of the Eastern US. I think there's fun times ahead.........

[sertorius]

Upon rereading my post, I think I might need to clarify my thoughts. I was not insinuating that the pna was going to go to negative 3 or 4. Based on the pna forecast I am looking at, the pna is set to go to the negative 1 range by the end of January or the the first of Feb. That is a perfect number for the central plains. Based on a little research, one of the most important indicators for this area is the pna-when it averages between positive 1 and negative 1, we have a pretty good shot at a winter event. It does look to me that the pna will go to those levels around the first of the month. I could be totally wrong, but that is what I see. Furthermore, the long range models are showing a colder period for this area and have been for the past 2 days for that time frame. It also looks on the 0z euro day 10 that the ridge is moving a bit farther west. If the ridge parks itself over Nevada or California, this area will be in pretty good shape. When it is over the Continetal divide where it will be later this week, we will only get shots of cold air. Time will tell, but I still see the end of January and the beginning of Feb. as having pretty good chances for a winter event here in the central plains.

[Air Force Met]

Nope...we certainly did not get the cold down here that I thought we would. There are two big reasons for that...which I will explain.

I would say...however...that the idea that the cold air was coming south was a good one. It didn't stay in the northern plains for just a day or two (which is what started this whole discussion)...and if you look back at my posts to Burn1...you will see that was my primary complaint on his forecast...that the arctic air was going to make it south and would hang around...which it did...compaired to staying well north and having most of the US in above normal temps through Jan 22. As someone mentioned...we were below normal by 10 degrees of so in northern Texas. Matter of fact...we have been about 5-10 degrees below normal here for highs and lows since the 14th.

As yes Burn1...those maps are garbage ...I mean...let's not lose perspective on the history of the arctic front discussion! As I said before....when you were originially saying the arctic air would stay north back on the 6th and 7th of January...you were doing so based on (I assume) those charts. So...in that time frame...what happened? Well...the areas those charts were saying would be above normal (which is why you said the arctic air would stay north and that all of the plains would have above normal temps) back on the 6th and 7th were totally...180 degrees off. Those areas which were supposed to be above normal are still below normal...and during that valid period were upwards of 20-25 degrees below normal and will be for another day or so....until they climb back to near normal temps.

Stay away from those charts. After all...they are a probablity scheme...nothing else. They show the chances something will happen. So when it says there is a 40% chance of above normal (which is what those charts were saying back then)...then there is a 60% of something else happening (like normal or below). Can you see how they are misleading?

OK...now to the reasons of why the arctic air did not slide south as I though it would. I reflected some of these reasons in some other posts but will summerize them here.

1) The arctic air came down in pieces. You have to think back to what the models were saying when the original forecast for freezing temps down to the GOM was made. All the models built a strong 500 mb ridge and associated high over Alaska. This was fairly constant in all the models runs and from model to model. In order to get the arctic air dump all at once...you have to have that high. It really doesn't matter what the flow over the lower 48 is as long as that ridge builds and you have very cold/dense air at the sfc. That ridge never materialized. IT did ridge up into AK some...but more in a SE-NW orientation...rather than the huge ridge that had been forecasted. When this happened...the arctic air began to come down in pieces.

2) No center of high pressure ever formed. Because of the lack in 500mb ridging...which allowed the arctic air to trickle down into the lower 48 pieces at a time...the arctic air never formed one massive high pressure center. Instead...there were a lot of little 1045-1050mb highs. Had the 500 mb ridge formed as it was forecasted to, then the arctic air would have been displaced all at once...which would have formed a nice large...dense....1055-1060mb high that would have come down into the southern plains. Based on the ridge that was forecasted...and looking at climo...that is what I forecasted.

So the reason for the bust is that the 500mb ridge never developed as forecasted. I invite you to see this for yourself by clicking on the ensemble spreads from that period of time...and you can see what the forecasted 500mb height field looked like:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10612.html

Bottom line is: When the ridge doesn't develop in a manner as to displace the arctic air...it will come down in pieces...and when that happens...it will not dive due south.

So...what happened is we got nickled and dimed to death well...we did in Texas...but I think those in the central and northern southern plains would tell you that their temps were a little on the chilly side.

[Portastorm]

AFM, I had been wanting to know "what happened?"

As usual, your explanation and supporting documents are excellent. Thank you! I have learned a lot in the exchange on this topic in the last two weeks.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I had been wanting to know "what happened?"

As usual, your explanation and supporting documents are excellent. Thank you! I have learned a lot in the exchange on this topic in the last two weeks.

Remember that Milli Vanilli song (OK...it wasn't them but you get the idea ) "Blame it on the Rain"? Well...we can retitle that "Blame it on the ridge"

Unless that ridge builds...the arctic air will never come down all at once because there is nothing to dislodge it from those valleys in Alaska. When that happens...it comes down in pieces.

[southerngale]

What good is cold weather, if there's no snow?

If we're not having snow, I'd just as soon have the mild temperatures and sunny days you're having.

Cold weather is useless without snow. I always want the cold with some tiny sliver of hope that I could get snow. Otherwise, why go outside and have to bundle up and be miserable when you can walk outside and enjoy the outdoors dressed comfortably?

With that said, bring on the snow!!

[PTrackerLA]

Any more arctic outbreaks on the horizon? I have a feeling we'll see one more deep freeze in early February. BTW it slipped down to 27 degrees at the local weatherbug last night, was only forecasted to be 34-35.

[Johnny]

I'm not too big on crisp, clear and cold weather like we are experiencing now. The humidity is way low and so is the dew point temperature. When both of them are low like this my sinuses go south. I can handle the cold drizzly stuff but not this very dry, cold and clear air. Come on Spring time!!!

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the concise and informative explanation WxGuy!!!! That is what I was wondering about, and now I know!!

[Burn1]

Thanks for the explanation AFM.......It enables me to learn what you
guys are really looking at....I also was wondering what happenened?

CCTX........ah yes Feb 1899.....Many record lows are still standing from
that crazy arctive outbreak......I believe the mouth or the Mississippi was
frozen all the way to the Gulf.....

The snow line (accumulation) in FL went as far south as Ft. Myers across
to Ft. Pierce...

I wonder if we will ever see that in our lifetime?

[Burn1]

Sorry......The mouth of the Miss would be the Gulf