Another cold spell?

[snow_wizzard]

I hate to do this to myself, but I am already getting excited about the prospects for another cold spell that may begin before the end of the month. A fair percentage of the GFS runs are showing that another ridge will rapidly amplify well off the coast somewhere around the 29th or 30th. This would in turn allow another deep trough to carve out over the west. In the meantime...We have to see how the flood event pans out this week. Many times, the details of such an event hold clues to how much potential we may have for a severe cold spell a couple of weeks after the flood. Another thing that I like, is the GFS has been showing that we will enter a pattern which is very favorable for significant mountain snows in roughly the 6 - 12 day period. R-Dub...I like your anlysis about the PNA and AO. It is indeed true that the GFS has been great at predicting the PNA index over the past several months. If we can indeed go negative again with a negative AO, we may hit the pay station in a big way next time. I have to say that this past cold spell was not bad in many respects, but it was lacking in snowfall for many locales. As for duration and number of well below normal low temps, it wasn't bad. I would give the cold snap a B-. I am astounded that some of you are reporting temps in the upper 40s...I have yet to see it hit 40 in Covington. Our old friend the east wind, just doesn't want to give up.

[snow_wizzard]

I meant to post this under the Pacific Northwest section. I now know where I went wrong!

[andrewr]

I'm just outside of Covington (near Lake Morton) and am sitting at 39F.

[krysof]

I hope us here in the east can get some snow while it's cold right now because if it warms up again, than I will write off winter again.

[andrewr]

Don't worry about the Pacific Northwest taking any snow from you right now. We are about to hit the mid 50's, have snow levels at 8,000+ feet, and get tons of rain for the next week at least.

[snow_wizzard]

Krysof...You are certainly getting plenty of cold in the east, but getting it with mositure has been a big problem for some areas. We just had a two week cold spell where I live, about 25 miles SE of Seattle and we had the same problem. Only an inch of snow.

[krysof]

That will give the east the cold temperatures because the pacific northwest will see much milder conditions, but as far as having snow, I'm not sure what will happen.

[krysof]

for your area, how much snow did you get in total so far this winter where you live near seattle.

[andrewr]

For me, I got less than an inch and had it snow on only two occasions. One wasn't even a dusting and nothing really stuck, the other got .5"-.75". Some places that have microclimates around here have gotten 12" of snow and the northern areas got 6+", but the majority of us were missed.

[snow_wizzard]

I am almost ashamed to say...just the one inch. That actually fell on five different occaisions. We did have a nice ice storm last night with about 3/16 of an inch of ice.

[krysof]

Oh, for our area in central new jersey we had only one day of accumulating snow. It was about 1.5 to 2 inches.

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

Awesome to hear from you again!!! Latest long-range GFS models point toward a more zonal flow beginning the end of January. I miss the amplified patterns...even if it doesn't benefit the Pacific Northwest. The amplified patterns always bring extreme weather. This week looks a mess with flooding and high freezing levels. I wouldn't be surprised if Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass closed. Some models suggest 3+ inches of rain in the lowlands alone...the Cascades and Olympics could see 6+ inches. Not quite the Pineapple Express, but pretty darn close.

Anthony

[krysof]

If the PNA will go negative again by the end of January, do you think the east will have abnormally warm temperatures again if not warmer than they were.