Late Night WXBLOG update. Analysis on late week situation

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

[yoda]

Thanks for the update Wxguy. But I disagree. The GGEM and EURO both showed a MECS for NC to at least PHL.

[wxguy25]

Thanks for the update Wxguy. But I disagree. The GGEM and EURO both showed a MECS for NC to at least PHL.

Look again:



The precip barely gets up to PHL

The GGEM did show a more severe situation w/ a benchmark storm

[yoda]

Thanks for the update Wxguy. But I disagree. The GGEM and EURO both showed a MECS for NC to at least PHL.

Look again:



The precip barely gets up to PHL

The GGEM did show a more severe situation w/ a benchmark storm

Ok, I put in a poor choice of words. When I meant to at least Philly, I had meant that they get some snow... but what was being argued on another board is why is the EURO kicking the storm out?

[wxguy25]

Thanks for the update Wxguy. But I disagree. The GGEM and EURO both showed a MECS for NC to at least PHL.

Look again:



The precip barely gets up to PHL

The GGEM did show a more severe situation w/ a benchmark storm

Ok, I put in a poor choice of words. When I meant to at least Philly, I had meant that they get some snow... but what was being argued on another board is why is the EURO kicking the storm out?

Timing and what becomes of the 50-50 low. the GFS does it also. Now you could argue tha tthe GFS cold bias is the reason why the storm is getting kicked out. BUT the strength of the arctic air in place cant be denied. For that reason im actually leaning in the direction of a more supprrssed event.

What MAY be more important is the trend. Northwest the past two runs on both the Euro and GFS

[yoda]

Thanks for the update Wxguy. But I disagree. The GGEM and EURO both showed a MECS for NC to at least PHL.

Look again:



The precip barely gets up to PHL

The GGEM did show a more severe situation w/ a benchmark storm

Ok, I put in a poor choice of words. When I meant to at least Philly, I had meant that they get some snow... but what was being argued on another board is why is the EURO kicking the storm out?

Timing and what becomes of the 50-50 low. the GFS does it also. Now you could argue tha tthe GFS cold bias is the reason why the storm is getting kicked out. BUT the strength of the arctic air in place cant be denied. For that reason im actually leaning in the direction of a more supprrssed event.

What MAY be more important is the trend. Northwest the past two runs on both the Euro and GFS

True. Someone said on the other board as well (either HM or Dave) that there is a s/w in BC acting as a kicker... but he said climo would not support this...

Oh well... its gonna be a long week with model changes and switches anyway...

[Tip]

Well this morning's 06Z GFS really crushes this system and there is no phasing till it is well out to sea. I know the cold bias may be at work here, but the GFS solution whips the 50/50 out of the picture in a hurry, allowing the coastal formation to occurr well east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif

50/50 in a good position.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144s.gif

Moving rapidly NE

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156s.gif

CYA

Hope this is a bad run

[Chris the Weather Man]

I hope this trends northward........ Let the GGEM be right this time.... LOL

[krysof]

I knew it, another coastal miss. This is the 4th one so far this winter. I woke up to a dusting of snow which will remain for quite some time. The gfs kills the storm and the other models may be in favor of the gfs. Welcome to heartbreak hotel.

[Anonymous]

I knew it, another coastal miss. This is the 4th one so far this winter. I woke up to a dusting of snow which will remain for quite some time. The gfs kills the storm and the other models may be in favor of the gfs. Welcome to heartbreak hotel.

Im with you krysof, another yet ANOTHER miss for philly! When will we catch a break? I think this was our last chance, it looked SO perfect a few days ago. Why couldnt the gfs just stay like that!!!

[vbhoutex]

Jrodd321 check your pm's.

[krysof]

Your right, this is our last chance. By the end of January temperatures will warm up well above freezing and that's probably when the heavy precipitation will fall, just my luck. Except it will be rain. Are all models depicting what the gfs is as of the 06z run.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Rain? Are you nuts?????? COLD AIR ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NE GA!!!

[vbhoutex]

Your right, this is our last chance. By the end of January temperatures will warm up well above freezing and that's probably when the heavy precipitation will fall, just my luck. Except it will be rain. Are all models depicting what the gfs is as of the 06z run.

Check the models out yourself. If you don't know where to find them let us know. The only way you will learn is to do it by yourself and ask questions when you don't understand what you are seeing.

[Anonymous]

Rain? Are you nuts?????? COLD AIR ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NE GA!!!

What does that have to do with cold till after january? Your just telling us that the cold air is in place now. But it wont be in a few weeks when we get rain.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Oh my god..... Feb is still winter....... And some of our biggest snowstorms ever happened in Feb.

[Anonymous]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

Excellent site here ! Very thorough and complete. I'd say Wxguy reminds me of chief meteorologist Joe Aleo of Intellicast - another expert on long range and seasonal outlooks/teleconnections. They really do their homework !