Could OLR be the key to predicting El Nino winters?

[snow_wizzard]

I have been watching the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) values with great interest this season. The reason being that El Nino almost invariably results in well below OLR, in the equatorial Pacific between between 160W and 160E longitiude. For some strange reason, this El Nino has not done that. In fact the OLR index for December was +6.5...unheard of for any El Nino since record keeping began for that index in the 1970s. I am coinvinced that the supressed OLR in a typical El Nino year is the reason that strong ridges normally develop over the Pacific NW. That ridge position is why the NW normally has such mild winters with an El Nino. It appears that the supressed OLR is further west this season, which is resulting in ridges over the Pacific which equals cold in the NW and mild in the NE. The supressed OLR causes a ridge to form, because less heat from the tropics is able to escape into outer space. The excess heat is instead absorbed by the atmosphere which can cause very high amplitude ridges to set up. In short the OLR continuing to be at normal or above normal levels in the key area of 160W to 160E could spell more cold weather for the NW later in the winter.