Wacky 18z GFS

[Tip]

I love these 18z runs they always come up with something unexpected. showing a double structured low that has most of the heavy stuff from central Jersey south. Colsolidating into one primary low off Cape Hatteras. Huge storm for Virgina, Maryland and Delaware and eastern NC.

[sphinx]

Read earlier today that the models are converging at a solution. May be true but the 18 UT GFS and the 18 UT ETA couldn't be more different!

The GFS shows a much more southerly track for the initial clipper and hints at a very weird off-shore development. An extended period of moderate followed by light snow is possible for the Mid-Atlantic.

The ETA tracks the storm further north sending the 540 line well above the Mason Dixon line. Little hint of off-shore development until the storm is well up the coast; An initial burst of snow followed by rain(south and east of DC), sleet north and west.

The ETA does seem to have a warm bias, but its hard to buy the GFS's off shore shenanigans.

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

75 Percent of the time I never take the 18UTC models very seriously other then to see if there is consistancy and that's it. I think presonally that the models period no matter what model, or run it is, tink that the models are down playing precipation qualities, especially if a southern storm may add some energy to the system, but I think the models are trying to wait to see what this feature is going to do if anything to the primary storm. Smart move for the models for thinking ahead instead of jumping to a conclusion as they usually do. Now only if the ETA and GFS could be more closer to each other in the track.