Quick to issue my second guess on storm

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Based on new model trends for the last 2 runs, and the more southernly tracks of the ETA, UKMET, and European I have decided to update my map, and be a little bit more precise as to what people may recieve from the storm. This is again not to be used as an accumulation map by any means. My accumulation map won't be issued till late evening tomorrow with the 3rd guess. The 4th guess if I need it will be the last guess probably coming out AM to afternoon Friday. With Updated accumulation mpas to the previous ones if an update becomes neccessary.

[Fodie77]

You have NO idea how much I hope those predictions are true.

[adelphi_sky]

DC in the bullseye, out of the bullseye, back in again. What a ride.

[frankthetank]

I'm in your heavy snowfall on the west end...heres what the local AFD is saying:

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
BOTH THE ETA/GFS DON/T INDICATE ANY LOW LEVEL WARM LAYERS THAT WOULD
BRING THE PCPN TYPE INTO QUESTION. THIS IS A CHANGE FOR THE
ETA...WHICH HAD BEEN THE WARMER OF THE TWO MODELS. SO...SNOW SHOULD
BE THE RULE...AND POSSIBLY A LOT OF IT. HOW MUCH? BOTH THE ETA AND
GFS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF...WHICH IS THE
EXCEPTION...NOT THE RULE. BOTH POINT TO ABOUT 3/4RDS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID BY 12Z SAT...WHICH COULD EQUATE TO 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOW WOULD ROUGHLY BE ALONG A ZUMBRO FALLS MN TO
MUSCODA WI LINE. OBVIOUSLY...WATCH LOOKS GOOD...AND IF MODELS KEEP
POINTING TO THE SAME SOLUTION LATER TODAY...WOULD IMAGINE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES...SO ALL OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE WATCH. TOO CLOSE TO NOT
PUT THEM IN.

[storms NC]

As alway I am on the fine line. So all rain cause of me being on the line between mix and rain it will be rain. OH well what else is new.

[weathermom]

I don't know what to wish for!!!! I LOVE big snowstorms, but I have to travel this weekend (all in the light blue band!). Can't we just reschedule??

[Anonymous]

Nice map Goth but I live in NE Virginia, you've got me in the 3 to 6 inch zone. My forecast for my backyard stands at 2 to 5 inches with mixing. You've also got me jacked up close to that historic 16 inch zone. I think you should move your 16 inch zone about 50 miles north/northeast. Besides, we don't know yet what the coastal is gonna do. IMO, it'll track NE away from the coast.
So I am going with 2 - 5 inches (Emphasis on the lower end) with mixing for Woodbridge VA and mostly cloudy on Sunday, the coastal will be no factor for NE VA this time around.

Otherwise great map Goth.

-Jeb

[adelphi_sky]

It will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out. One thing is for sure, if we are mostly wrong, it's a great lesson learned, so we'll be better able to nail the next one, which may be the big one we've all been hoping for. Remember, knowledge is gained from failures.

[BlizzzardMan]

The most recent forecasts I've been hearing seem to suggest that the low pressure is going to be further north than that as it moves through, which sucks for me since that might mean a wintry mix might come into play here! I don't want that! I hope your map is right though!