Stormsfury

[colawx]

I read your update last night. What are your current thoughts for the weekend storm.
Thanks,
Colawx

[Stormsfury]

I read your update last night. What are your current thoughts for the weekend storm.
Thanks,
Colawx

Uncertainty ... wedging configuration remains somewhat of a mystery, but Columbia IMHO, is on the fringe of beginning out as FRZ/FROZEN to cold rain, then changing over to snow in the wraparound ... but this is only a GUESS at this point ...

Confidence on this is VERY LOW since all the models are at wit's end, but converging on a solution ... 850mb temperatures on some of the guidance aggressively warm WRT to the 850mb low and SFC winds, however, again, the CAD is a bit of a mystery. it's a battle with the SFC low, and the wedge ....

Transferrance of energy is a good bet to the coast, and the 500mb low is expected to track fairly far south, which should produce some wraparound moisture (likely snow with 850mb temperatures dropping/plunging as low as -12ºC)

SF

[colawx]

Thanks Stormsfury,
I will be reading and watching this board and the others frequently this weekend. Our TV Mets up here are no help at all.
Thanks,
Colawx

[krysof]

This is one confusing storm. I just watched Jim Cantore and Paul Cocin on the weather channel and they have no idea what will happen as of now. They described three systems or an analogy of three cooks in the kitchen. The winner will decide where the heavy snow will be between disturbance 1 and 2. 3 will stay south but if it heads up the coast along with the two, then we have a blockbuster on our hands. The 3rd disturbance is the southern jet that has abundant moisture. If that connects with one of the two disturbances than we are talking about very heavy snows. Things get intresting by tomorrow.

[DLI2k5]

I read your update last night. What are your current thoughts for the weekend storm.
Thanks,
Colawx

Hey i'm with you man! From one Columbian to another, i certainly hope we get our fair share of snowfall! Whether it be from one transitional period to another, i just hope we get ours man! As well as the rest of our fellow southerners. Will be keeping my fingers crossed along with you my friend! Good luck to both of us!

[DLI2k5]

Hey Storm! How are things looking for Charleston at this point?

[DLI2k5]

Hey Stormsfury.....what's your take on the current models runs, what do you think this means for the lower mid atlantic/SE? Looks like the Eta went a little south and the Gfs went a bit north. Do you still have the same outlook as yesterday as far as snow?

[Stormsfury]

Hey Stormsfury.....what's your take on the current models runs, what do you think this means for the lower mid atlantic/SE? Looks like the Eta went a little south and the Gfs went a bit north. Do you still have the same outlook as yesterday as far as snow?

Wide variety of precip ...

Won't go into specifics as I am not sure, BUT I will say that we'll likely end with a little bit of light snow showers w/the 500mb low ...

SF

[DLI2k5]

Thanks man, always love your posts, very informative and you always shoot it straight!

[DLI2k5]

Hey Storm....I'm confused as heck as to what to make of the model trends! The GFS is doing a bit of reversal from previous runs and showing a more northbound trend,less moisture. The ETA is now somewhat further south and with more moisture. The Euro and UKMET i think are basically in accordance, not too much change, but the UK is a bit more north. I'm watching the local mets here and they are puzzled, some say just rain, some flurries, some mix, it's unbelievable. From what you are currently seeing, i know you don't have specifics yet, but what do you see as the trend, more north or south? And, you had said in a post on another website, we should hunker down here in the Carolinas. What's your take on that now? Or if anyone else would like to address the situation at hand. Thanks

[Stormsfury]

Models are ...

Waffling ... waffling ... waffling ...

but slowly zeroing on a solution ... and hell, they ALL may end up being wrong ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Often I start to wonder that if the model solutions cannot come to agreement by now, within 72 hours or less, how useful they really are.

This whole event seems pretty unpredictable to me as far as specifics. Lots of uncertainties yet to be resolved within the next 24 to 72 hrs.....

I just hope this whole event will not become a HUGE BUST at the last minute........

[SnowGod]

The only reason why this would be a bust is if you are over doing what this energy can accomplish. If you are looking for 2 feet of snow, you are bound to be very disappointed. To me, this is a garden variety snowstorm. I don't see anything special about it.

[QCWx]

The ETA has trended colder here as it is picking up the CAD here with less than 48 hours to go. We only recieve about .10 of an inch liquid equivalent but it's all sleet and zr. With temps in the mid 20's at the time that could be a problem.

[DLI2k5]

QCWx....what are the chances this could turn into a transitional snow event for all of the Carolinas? Nothing is etched in stone as of now and you can't predict what is actually going to occur until it unfolds in a situation like this. Right now it looks like a mixed bag, but just curious of what the probabilities of this occuring are.

[QCWx]

I will be shocked and I mean shocked if we even see one flake of snow in this part north carolina.

[Stormsfury]

Stick a fork in it now ...

The system is pretty much looking to erode the in-situ wedging quite easily ... still not exactly sure if that's right, but that's just life ...

At the onset of the event, there might be some light ZR, maybe sleet mix, but gradually looks to change over to rain ... whatever leftover moisture is left might change to light snow or flurries before a quick end to the precip ...

SF