Snow totals raised in D.C/Balt area

[Lowpressure]

1500 NWS update by zone just raised snow totals a good bit with high end totals 9 inches in Fredericksburg to around 14 inches in Frederick, MD. D.C. metro in at around 10-11. This is quite a bit higher than the previuos forecasted amounts. Ice seems to be less of a threat and that may be why higher snow accums forecasted. Thoughts or comments...

[SnowGod]

LOL They have not seen the 18z ETA(not that I don't agree with it).

[ohiostorm]

They lowered amounts in East Central Ohio.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Certainly not surprising if that does happen because the snow will come down quite heavily and the dominant precip type in the area will be snow with only alittle mixing south of DC, Annapolis, and Dover. But the dominant precip type will be snow across the entire LWX area. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if areas north of DC through Baltimore see nearly a foot of snow and Philadelphia experiences 12-18 inches of snow. This combined with strong winds late Saturday night into Sunday will result in blizzard conditions even if the snow storm comes to an end.

Best bet is to stay off the roads all weekend long.
Jim

[Anonymous]

Yep LWX just dropped the ice/frzra in NE VA and are going with all snow, heavy at times Saturday, high end 11-12 inches.
Additionally NGM indicates 37 kt sustained winds on Sunday for DCA. OMG what would the gusts be like? Can you say ground blizzard Saturday night into Sunday with those winds plus frigid sfc temps?

It seems we've had a few high-wind storms this fall/winter season, and this storm may do likewise? If so this is going to be one wild storm up in the SNE this weekend with tremendous snow tallies and very high winds near the coast with high tide/overwash issues.

[Lowpressure]

NWS D.C. has moved storm totals up a bit more and added blowing and drifting snow to the forecast. This is shaping up to be a good one. Track of choice seems to be a little more south than previously thought.

[yoda]

I agree with what the NWS is doing.. I still believe the 0z ETA to be a bit of an outlier here....

[Lowpressure]

Yoda, what is your prediction for Springfield? I am saying 5-7 in Fredericksburg with some mixing. We are down to 16.5 degrees right now.

[yoda]

Yoda, what is your prediction for Springfield? I am saying 5-7 in Fredericksburg with some mixing. We are down to 16.5 degrees right now.

I said 8-10 here... possible 12"...

[arlwx]

Looks like NWS is backtracking. From the 326 am discussion:HAVE TO SAY THAT HOW FAST DOES WARMER
AIR ARRIVES ALOFT AND HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS STILL REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN. BASED ON HPC WWE GRAPHICS HAVE BROUGHT IT A CHANCE OF
SLEET AS FAR NORTH AS DC ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO
FZRA/PL. THEREFORE...CUT DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW ATMS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A SIG SNOW EVENT FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA CONFIDENCE IN AMTS CLOSE TO 10 INS OR HIGHER REMAINS
VERY LOW GIVEN TRACK OF H85 LOW IS ACROSS SRN PA AND PRECIP DURATION
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY TO BE 6-12 HRS AS PRECIP IS FCST TO EXIT THE AREA
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SUN. THINK OUR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR
LOWER END OF THE FCST. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS CERTAIN IS THAT
COLD AIR WILL HOLD AT THE SFC WITH STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND VERY
COLD SFC TEMPS.

[Lowpressure]

Noticed that as well. NWS does not know the low track and we are within 2-3 hours of the onset of the event. Echos already showing up in the area on radar. I think they cut totals too much to be safe, but we will see. They have been wrong with both previous clippers this week, both on the low side.

[arlwx]

So far, in Arlington VA it is a snow bust, but let's see if this next line gives us ANYTHING.

Behind that, I'm afraid the radar trends suggest snow alert cancel (unless something does pop up off the VA capes, which is looking unlikelier by the hour).

[Lowpressure]

I do not think you should write this one off by any means. It hasn't even started yet. Not a snow bust.

[Hokie1]

Snow has begun in Reston, VA though I'm not seeing a persistant amount of moisture to our south or west. Looks like it's all off to the NW and hopefully it'll begin to track SE. Wait and see mode at this point.

[Lowpressure]

NWS dropping snow totals big time around D.C. and Maryland. They have no clue what will pan out. I say not a snow bust in the above post, but I am increasingly concerned it may be. As you say, radar echos not very impressive so far.

[krysof]

The second disturbance still has to merge and the storm still has to redevelop offshore. Trust me, we are not done by any means, once it hits the coast, it will explosively intensify and some areas will have snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour!

[Lowpressure]

Hope you are correct, my daughters are going bananas waiting for the snow. Nothing yet in Fredericksburg.

[krysof]

I am confused at snowfall amounts here in northcentral new jersey, all areas say different, do you know how much exactly possible?

[Lowpressure]

I am confused at snowfall amounts here in northcentral new jersey, all areas say different, do you know how much exactly possible?

Middlesex County looks to go with 12-18, not sure where you live. I think just about anywhere around there will get dumped on looking at current radar trends. An the coastal low has yet to develop.

[krysof]

I live in middlesex county, new jersey. So 12-18 is expected right. Could local spots get more.