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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/fcsts/BOSAFDBOX.html
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1150 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2005
Update:
Hurricane force winds are possible Sun for Cape Cod and Nantucket along with a slower storm departure Sun
We continue to be in awe as we review each model run and evaluate upstream conditions. 12Z eta and gfs are now extremely close on their solutions, especially on the magnitude and track of the 500 mb and surface lows. Both models continue indicate strong height Falls with 500 mb low as it tracks just south of New England tonight and Sun. At the surface, this leads to explosive cyclogenesis off the New Jersey coast tonight, and continuing Sunday as surface low tracks over the benchmark (40N/70W).
Both 12z eta and gfs continuing to indicate a trend of the upper low trying to capture the surface low Sun, as surface pressure pattern shows lots of bagginess in the isobars extending westward from the surface low to the 500 mb circulation. This translates to a slower storm departure, with snow and wind persisting into much of the day Sun, even west portions. Thus, we will extend heavy snow warning and blizzard warning until midday Sun west (Hartford/Springfield) and will continue with 7 PM expiration east (Boston/Cape Cod/Nantucket).
Other change to forecast will be increase our wind forecast. Both 12z eta and gfs indicate hurricane force wind gusts are likely for Cape Cod and Nantucket Sunday, as surface low continues to bomb. definitely a player in the strong deepening rates are the arctic air over the ocean, well south of New England, and surface low tracking over northern wall of gulf stream. Thus, very low static stability aiding bombogenesis. Both eta and gfs indicate sustained winds Sun of 35 to 45 mph across Eastern MA, with hurricane force gusts to 75 mph possible over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Winds of this magnitude will likely result in widespread power outages and possible a life threatening situation for anyone traveling late tonight into Sun.
So, we will update our heavy snow warning and blizzard warning to address these changes. In addition, we will upgrade our storm warnings to a hurricane force wind warning for the waters south and east of Nantucket and Cape Cod. After a complete review of the 12z model data and upstream observations, will issue another update later this afternoon to address any other possible forecast changes. Previous discussion below.
Nocera/Thompson
