Strong cold air damming event in the Southeast next weekend.

[Stormsfury]

Unclear at this time whether this event will be a dry event or a classically enhanced CAD event ... details on my website ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(Forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

[DLI2k5]

Hey Storm....If this event were to occur next weekend, would it mean the possibility of widespread snowfall for all of the Carolinas? If we could just get that GOM moisture to ride up and overrun, then we'd have a true classic Winter storm on our hands, at least i think so!

[DLI2k5]

Hey Storm....If this event were to occur next weekend, would it mean the possibility of widespread snowfall for all of the Carolinas? If we could just get that GOM moisture to ride up and overrun, then we'd have a true classic Winter storm on our hands, at least i think so!

Check out the latest run of the Euro. Things early on are looking very interesting for this scenario next weekend perhaps. Let's hope it gets even better with later runs!

[JenyEliza]

This is just a tease from mother nature (and computer models), I'm not gonna get excited about any possibilities.

Mother Nature: "Nana-nana-boo-boo, I'm not going to send you any snow this year. I'm just going to let you think I might."

[krysof]

This would only effect the Carolinas?

[LarryWx]

This is just a tease from mother nature (and computer models), I'm not gonna get excited about any possibilities.

Mother Nature: "Nana-nana-boo-boo, I'm not going to send you any snow this year. I'm just going to let you think I might."

Unlike this last storm, which I never thought was a big SE wintry threat as per my WWBB posts due to the far too north track, the 12Z EC's track depiction for this next one is almost perfect for an ice or sleet storm for the Atlanta area provided it is cold/dry enough at the surface as the precip. arrives. The 0Z EC shows 850's mainly in the +2.5 to +5 C range, which is historically within the perfect range for Atlanta icestorms. The 12Z shows a surface NW Gulf low on day 6 moving ENE well south of ATL (~south GA) to the NC coast on day 7 with 95%+ relative humidity throughout much of the SE US. This shows a very strong wedging event with the help of a strong (1040 mb+) surface high in the NE US. Whereas I have no idea of whether or not this materializes into something significant, I did predict one major winter storm for Atlanta this winter due to it being a weak El Nino. The only thing going against it is a big one: it is over 5 days away and so much can change. Therefore, I consider this still just a fun thing to consider for now rather than anything close to a high threat. Also, this is not currently a snow threat for the Atlanta area imo based on these maps. I'd say ice (freezing rain) highest and sleet second. I counted 4 of 13 (31%) weak El Nino winters as having produced at least one ice storm in Atlanta. This is at least double the ~15% (or less?) that had at least one.

[Anonymous]

Unclear at this time whether this event will be a dry event or a classically enhanced CAD event ... details on my website ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(Forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

Love your discussions SF, and especially your model page!
Excellent work!

Jeb

[JenyEliza]

Mother nature can keep her ice. Snow, great. Ice, no way. Don't need it.

The last good ice storm in Atlanta (January 2000) tried to take out my house and family at 3:00 am (75ft tall ice covered pines lost their tops on our roof as we slept). At 9:00 am, the trees took out our only vehicle. So NO THANKS to ice, all the same.

Given a choice between this weekend's weather, and an ice storm...I'd take this weekend. Cold, cold, cold--sunny and windy--but home and family safe and snug.

Jeny

[Fodie77]

If this pans out, what could this mean for the mid-atlantic states?

[QCWx]

Whats interesting from raleigh's gempak image post on another board is it shows the first high retreating with another high on it's heels. That could lock in the cold air for the duration.

Also, it's great to see this signature so vividly already because it almost ALWAYS gets stronger.

[QCWx]

0Z Euro looks darn impressive tonight as best I can tell from the el cheapo graphics the ECMWF puts up.

[wolfray]

Reading today, Bastardi is also beginning to mention an east coast ice/snow event for next weekend. Saying it will come from a low moving up the east coast......

[krysof]

Forecasts do not show this event.

[Fodie77]

Forecasts do not show this event.

Actually, my local CBS D.C. met, put it on his 7-day outlook for Saturday night into Sunday. He said he's not sure if it'll be rain or snow and that he'll have to keep a close eye on it.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Remember the southern jet is showing signs of getting active and the blocking is starting to show up in the western Atlantic-------- Could spell Nor'easters..............JSB

[cswitwer]

Every year my parents go from VA to Miami in mid-late January. Last year they got stuck on their way home & had to spend 2 days in a hotel in Columbia, SC.

Let's hope they don't get stuck here in Charleston this year! (Cuz that would mean I have to scrape ice off my car!)

I don't sound much like someone moving to Seattle this summer, do i?

Thanks for the prog, SF. Good to see you're still keeping an eye out for us out there.

chris
Charleston

[krysof]

the strongest winter storms are nor'easters that ride up from the gulf of mexico

[Stormsfury]

the strongest winter storms are nor'easters that ride up from the gulf of mexico

For the Northeast/Mid-ATL, yes ... but for the South/Southeast ... usually weaker southern stream systems (laden with moisture) with cold air damming are notoriously been synonimous the biggest winter storm producers for those locations ...

[QCWx]

Newest canadian precip maps really pound Western and Central NC, NW SC and Northern GA:





The canadian is AWFUL at cad storms too, for it to be showing this is extremeley encouraging.

[DLI2k5]

Hey SF.....Do you think with us having a possible CAD effect, it would help to drop the 850 line further south and would include basically all of SC , even down to Charleston? Do you see any signs of what could lead to possible low pressure deepening as of yet?