chris07dabomb wrote:Do you all think north Texas will get hit hard with snow and cold during February? I sure hope we have had 4 inches this season.
Well, at least one meteorologist, HM, had this to say for the pattern evolution for February:
Now onto the future ... the pattern next 10 days to the inexperienced might not look cold, ok well think again. This pattern reminds me of the winters in the late 70s where the PJ would push back but would become more blocky and leave cut offs in the mid latitudes. Such patterns can actually be interesting if you get the right position of the h5 features. The N PAC convoluted pattern hasnt and WILL not go anywhere, so a continue "Aleutian LOW" in the means w/ PNA ridge. Some split flow, etc ... the block in N-C Atlantic extending into Ireland and North Atlantic/iceland will be enough to setup a mean trough across SE canada/NW Atlantic ... we continue w/ the "chain link setup" and this will INCREASE the convoluted setup. Slowly but surely. Expect the next few clippers to add to this, but the final doings might be a storm in early FEB. A STJ feature of significant proportions will come east across the continental usa, generally cutoff from the PJ, but that comes across SE canada into the low anomalies in the "50-50" position. A nice overrunning event for sure possible here, there could actually be a couple of them out of ahead of this feature as it acts like a sling shot and sends off each disturbance. When the final "sling shot" comes out to party, in early FEB, it will produce the nEXT winter storm of significant proportions for the midwest and northeast usa. So another week of medium range models! AAH yes its winter.
This low anomaly will likely help fully retrograde the block to a point that would favor major amplification mid FEB. A BIG SWITCH happens that drops severe arctic air into the USA. Very negative NAO by MID FEB. AND MJO signal JUST happens to click here. COuld be a VERY wintry month here folks and YES ... another MAJOR storm is possible again in the midwest/northeast/mid atlantic AFTER FEB 15. The setup may favor plenty of action, all LESS than the magnitude of this past storm though, except for one, coming during the MJO timing w/ phase 8. There may also be a period where a surpressor happens and severe cold for a while if the NAO is strong enough.
Extremely wintry month ahead, no long lasting warm up, no sustained snowless periods/stormless periods and no melting of the snow, well UNUSUAL melting that causes flooding.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
