Latest NOGAPS VS ECMWF: Big coastal storm???

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VERMONTsnow
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Latest NOGAPS VS ECMWF: Big coastal storm???

#1 Postby VERMONTsnow » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:11 pm

NOGAPS shows major coastal storm up the NE coast early next week, while ECMWF shows it far enough out to sea not to have major impact on land. I like NOGAPS model, and look for a good change of heavy snow Philly on north....
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krysof

#2 Postby krysof » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:31 pm

Could that mean big snows for central new jersey.
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#3 Postby yoda » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:34 pm

Hmmm.. clouded the future is... but I expect the ECMWF to catch on to the NOGAPS soon...
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#4 Postby VERMONTsnow » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:39 pm

GFS shows superstorm for new england next weekend (i.e., superbowl weekend). In the seven day period from this sunday to next sunday someone is going to get a BIG TIME storm!!!
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#5 Postby yoda » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:42 pm

VERMONTsnow wrote:GFS shows superstorm for new england next weekend (i.e., superbowl weekend). In the seven day period from this sunday to next sunday someone is going to get a BIG TIME storm!!!


Well, sorry to be the party pooper, but the GFS looks ridiculous next week. I wouldn't follow it... for now.
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#6 Postby VERMONTsnow » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:48 pm

GFS does look ridiculous, has a storm moving east to west, i.e., well off of NE coast, then back tracking westward. Nevertheless, it's the trend that counts, all of the models show roughly the same thing: some sort of monster coastal storm next week or perhaps next weekend....
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#7 Postby krysof » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:49 pm

Watch this storm, significant ice and snow for south and eventually northeast, mid-atlantic and new england by early next week.
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#8 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 27, 2005 8:52 pm

VERMONTsnow wrote:GFS does look ridiculous, has a storm moving east to west, i.e., well off of NE coast, then back tracking westward. Nevertheless, it's the trend that counts, all of the models show roughly the same thing: some sort of monster coastal storm next week or perhaps next weekend....


LOL! That's the GFS for you. :lol:
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#9 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Jan 27, 2005 9:58 pm

Latest ECMWF models show no trough in the east...more a zonal flow after day 7. Don't know if I buy this...but the 12z and 18z models show about the same thing. Maybe models overestimated the rough in the east, ridge in the west? In all fairness, it's time for another pattern change...the northeast and NOW southeast are getting their winter weather...bring it back to the Pacific Northwest.
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