Biblical Storm For The East Coast ???

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Possibilty for a set-up to historical storm, during the period from next Friday-Tuesday, looking more like Sun-Tue period... the magnitude of amplification could turn out to be quite ominous, current depth of trof in Japan should be over the east coast within 10 days, an active southern stream, and a northern brach bringing in a nast cold shot could be timed perfectly for a massive storm... Buzz is growing for this period at least two senior meteorolgists at Accu-Weather are very concerned about the possibilty...

"...I received an e-mail from a reader of my column who said that if 30 inches of snow falls in New York state next week, that would be considered a major storm to him. I can see that happening... It's one of the things I'm worried about that you get phasing with a moisture laden storm and some place gets a huge dump of snow."

Paraphrased from Henry Margusity- Accuweather

Keep in mind folks this is strictly a possibilty, but I think with the magnitude of this possibilty that it requires serious watching...

At least two models see it...

1) DGFS- (Grrrrrr)
2) JMA

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

As for my title containing the word "Biblical"

I didn't type it to make a point, in fact Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity both used the term in their posts to describe the event's possibilties

[krysof]

I don't think so, lol.

[Scorpion]

If it panned out, Boston would be completely buried, especially since it already has a deep snowpack.

[VERMONTsnow]

I agree with the potential for a massive storm: shades of 1993! Wait and see! Sometime in the next ten days...be prepared....the guys from Accu-weather know their stuff

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

You got it Vermont...

These guys know their stuff very well, sometime Joe B... can get a little too excited about a storm but I never seen him use the word Biblical before, as for Henry he is a more conservative forecaster, to see him with such a write up almost scares me a bit, he's not one to say such comments and he nailed the last storms forecast to a "T"

[jkt21787]

Chances of a biblical storm, comparing to say 93, are quite slim at this point. Those are generally once or twice in a lifetime event. However, the last few runs of the GFS, particualry today's 6z, showed what I would think of as a monster storm heading up the east coast around the 8th or 9th, although the run was a bit warm. Plus, it showed up in much weaker form on the 12 and 18z runs. Keep in mind it is the GFS.

Nevertheless, it will be VERY intresting to watch over the next few days. I think February will have a lot of potential for much of the Eastern US, hopefully getting back down here as well!

[krysof]

I suppose it is time for another superstorm but maybe its still to early, we already had a blizzard, Boston and Providence broke records and now significant icing and or snow for the southeast and central mid atlantic. Will this be the potential superstorm, the southeast ice storm or the early next week coastal storm?

[chris07dabomb]

If this does happen, could it hit north Texas first with any snow?

[VERMONTsnow]

don't look to the GFS for prediction. Use ECMFW, NOGAPS, or JMA...GFS is out to lunch.

[jkt21787]

I would also add that talk on some other boards said the guy from Accu who made the "biblical" reference was more of hyper than JB (that is hard to believe) and also less skilled.

The chances of another 93 or 96 are not zero. It appears that everything that is needed for a big storm (bigger than last week) will be coming together just in time. A fun few days are certainly ahead.

[yoda]

don't look to the GFS for prediction. Use ECMFW, NOGAPS, or JMA...GFS is out to lunch.

I would not use the JMA either.

[jkt21787]

don't look to the GFS for prediction. Use ECMFW, NOGAPS, or JMA...GFS is out to lunch.

I would not use the JMA either.

Yea, JMA is not very good just from the little I've looked at it. ECMWF is usually the best you can get. It predicted last week's storm before many of the others.

[VERMONTsnow]

storm may never come to fruition, but you got to love the pattern, this is what makes meteorology fun!

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

What's worng with the JMA, I've noticed the guys over at Accu-weather have been using alot this year, and it's accuracy has been doing much better than alot of the other models...

As for Henry I've never seen him get hyper about a storm, in fact, his accumulation forecasters for last week's storm were a good deal lower than Joe Bastardi's, for example JB forecasted 18-24" for my location NW of Philly, Henry forecasted 10-14", I've checked him out for several years and he's never to my knowledge said anything remotly like "Biblical" before.

Both guys are saying that there are alot of questions the main one is where, bot have expressed that it could be the Mid-West or the East Coast... and the when is still a hard question as well...

As for the statement that it's too soon for a Blizzard since we just had one, I'd say that the only area that really saw a Blizzard from that was southern and eastern NE... Although impressive in those areas, I wouldn't call it a "Superstorm", I reserve that title for storms that cover a great deal of Real Estate... Feb 03 was one, and of course 96' and 93'... But I think a point hast to made here...

This past storm was alot like 96 and 03...

So really it has been almost 12 years since a storm like 93 which the POSSIBILTY has been compared to.

[VERMONTsnow]

I agree JMA has been pretty good this year....ECMWF has been good too.

Ingredients for superstorm are there next week...Bastardi (on the Big Dog) mentioned chance of snow in Jacksonville for the Superbowl! Shades of 1993 indeed!

[jkt21787]

Like I said earlier, I haven't looked at the JMA much at all, and only for my area really. It could have nailed every storm in the Northeast, I'm not sure. Obviously if its been doing good lately, then look at it with a lot more credence.

The Henry M guy from Accuweather I am not very familiar with, just relaying what I heard from others. Certainly will start reading a little just out of curiosity.

I don't think that its too soon for another big storm, I've never heard anything against the possibility of two storms within a short time. This is probably the best threat for the season (I think I said that last week too!). As far as snow in Jacksonville? Maybe a little too soon to be honking that horn.

[Matt31388]

What does this mean for Eastern Kentucky?

[ohiostorm]

Or East Central Ohio for that matter?

Snow now in the forecast for Sun- Tues.

[VERMONTsnow]

depends on storm track: if it were to cut up inland, just west of appalachains, then ohio, kentucky could get big snow!