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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / CENTRAL AND NWRN GA / SERN TN
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 290044Z - 290645Z
FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY LIQUID
RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY.
00Z BHM AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THIS WARM NOSE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS.
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S F AS OF 00Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT.
BROAD ZONE OF LIFT DUE TO DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EWD.
PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT AS THERMAL
GRADIENT NEAR 850 LEVEL TIGHTENS OVER GA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
INCREASES LIFT WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE.
..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005