Storm to take "Colorado/Trinidad" path next week??

[Planetsnow]

By Larry Cosgrove

I suppose that you could term the longer term forecast a "realignment", since it appears that some of the 500MB longwave features seen over or near North America will likely vanish. Two decisive trends are seen: the establishment of an active, yet semizonal, wind and height field across the continent, and a southward drift to the bitter cold air now entrenched over much of Canada. The changes should be seen first over the western states and provinces as a strong shortwave digs southward from the Aleutian Islands through the Intermountain Region. This incoming disturbance is likely to merge with the extant cutoff low along the U.S./Mexico border, giving rise to a "Panhandle Hook" type storm on Sunday and Monday. This first disturbance in the series should track into the Great Lakes west of the Chicago IL metro, with showers likely over the Mississippi Valley and moderate snowfall in parts of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest.

The next impulse in the series will drop southeastward into the Desert Regions, then take a "Colorado/Trinidad" path into the Ohio Valley and Northeast around Day 8. There are valid concerns that this system may take a more southern path, as many of the NWP schemes build a cAk high over QC following the first disturbance. With a flat subtropical high taking shape near Cuba, this second storm could have ideal moisture and cold air with which to produce widespread, possibly heavy, snowfall around February 9-10-11 in the Midwest into NY and New England.

[sertorius]

As usuall, the 12Z GFS has turned this into a Nebraska/Iowa Hooker. Just wild to watch a different solution every run!!