The 'Cold War' over Winter's Future: Verifications Thread

[donsutherland1]

In recent days, it is evident that there is a 'Cold War' raging over whether or not winter is finished. I'm squarely in the camp that a pattern change is likely and winter will stage a return with the second half of the month seeing below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Just as strongly in the other camp is Krysof who proclaimed on February 6, "Face it winter is over." He has issued a number of bold declarations including excessive warmth for the month of February and no snow from February 12 onward.

Clearly, the contrast in our thinking could not be more different. Meanwhile a growing avalanche of modeling is now supporting the idea of a major pattern change.

So as to avoid having to run from thread to thread, I will attempt to verify the major ideas from each side in this single thread. For now, it should be noted that model predictions do not verify forecasts. Actual outcomes, alone, determine how well or badly a forecast fared.

Don's Ideas:

• Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will see the temperature average below normal during the February 15-28 period.

February 15-28 Temperature Departures:
Boston: Pending
New York City: Pending
Philadelphia: Pending
Washington, DC: Pending

Source: Thread #57304

• February 15-28 Snowfall: Boston: 15" or more; NYC: 10" or more; DCA: 6" or more

February 15-28 Snowfall:
Boston: Pending
New York City: Pending
Washington, DC: Pending

Source: Thread #57454

Krysof's Ideas:
• The February Monthly Temperature will Average 10° Above Normal.

February Temperature Departures (through February 11):
Boston: +3.7° (Must average +14.1° rest of month)
New York City: +7.6° (Must average +11.6° rest of month)
Philadelphia: +5.6° (Must average +12.8° rest of the month)
Washington, DC: +4.5° (Must average +13.6° rest of the month)

Source: Warm months ahead. Monthly temperatures for February in the east will be 10+ above average for the east and March temperatures will be 20+ above average... (Thread #57304)

• Temperatures will stay way above freezing for the rest of the month.

Subfreezing Days (highs stay below freezing) Since February 6 (through February 11):
Boston: 0
New York City: 0
Philadelphia: 0
Washington, DC: 0

Source: Thread #57304

• No Snow!

Snowfall since February 12:
Boston: Pending
New York City: Pending
Philadelphia: Pending
Washington, DC: Pending

Source: Thread #57454

New Addition from February 14:
• ...temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week.

Newark: Pending

Source: Thread #57454

At last word, confidence in both camps was high. Early on, Krysof stated, "I am very right about this prediction." Even as the growing footsteps of approaching winter appeared to be growing louder on the modeling, he just as boldly predicted "no snow" on February 12. On February 9, I observed, "A change to a colder and snowier pattern appears highly likely."

Stay tuned for the outcome. Will winter rise again or will the forces of warmth score a decisive victory.

[Stephanie]

don -

I don't even think that you should waste your time and energy on defending your weather analyses to krysof. Look at the support that you are already receiving from the other members regading your analyses. Don't let the little gnat get to you.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

Rest assured, my next post on this topic will be the end-of-month verifications. I'm just hoping that he will see, in the end, the contrast between what happens and setting expectations based strictly on emotions.

I'm really hoping that this can be a learning experience for him. Time will tell. Certainly, I'm not going to be responding to commentary that I don't feel has much support (computer models, ensembles, etc.) because the pattern is heading for a very exciting one that will be filled with possibilities.

Today's Euro shows a very well-defined split flow, cold, and rapidly building Greenland block. If one goes through the Kocin-Uccellini books, reads the fairly recent presentation by Heather Archambault on the large-scale regime chagnes in the NAO and precipitation events in the East, or sees the very active southern jet, one cannot help but be excited that a fantastic winter pattern might be setting up.

[Stephanie]

I have NO DOUBT that your forecasts will verify.

My doubt is that krysof wants to learn.

[krysof]

if its supposed to be snowy and cold, weather.com shows temps in the upper 30's in the long range, but dry.

[krysof]

hjere in northcentral nj

[krysof]

sorry about the double posts

[yoda]

if its supposed to be snowy and cold, weather.com shows temps in the upper 30's in the long range, but dry.

Cause it follows GFS MOS...

[Aslkahuna]

Weather.com ceased to become a reliable source of MR forecasts long ago.

Steve

[JenyEliza]

Hmmm. Let me think about this.

OFA refugee

or

donsutherland?

Hmmm.

That's a toughie.

(NOT)

[JenyEliza]

For purposes of clarification, I'd like to go on official record that my money is on

DONSUTHERLAND!!

[JenyEliza]

don -

I don't even think that you should waste your time and energy on defending your weather analyses to krysof. Look at the support that you are already receiving from the other members regading your analyses. Don't let the little gnat get to you.

I agree, Stephanie, but it WILL be fun to see how this thread goes. There's no doubt who the thoroughbred in this race is!

Jeny

[donsutherland1]

JenyEliza,

Thanks very much for the vote of confidence. All things aside about differing perspectives, it will be very interesting to see how the pattern change actually unfolds. Hopefully, before all is said and done, snow-starved areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will have had a chance to feast on a good snowfall.

Have a great weekend.

[JenyEliza]

JenyEliza,

Thanks very much for the vote of confidence. All things aside about differing perspectives, it will be very interesting to see how the pattern change actually unfolds. Hopefully, before all is said and done, snow-starved areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will have had a chance to feast on a good snowfall.

Have a great weekend.

Don, you deserve the vote of confidence. You back up your thoughts with FACTS and science...and support your conclusions properly, whereas the refugee speaks his/her mind, but does nothing to support his/her opinion.

Right, wrong or indifferent, at least you make the effort to back up what you say with science and fact.

It definitely WILL be interesting to see how this unfolds. I do hope we have at least a small shot of seeing snow, as our totals this year are absolutely pathetic (even by Atlanta standards).

I estimate our totals in Atlanta this year at:

1" of ice January 29-30
8 teeny tiny snowflakes in late December 2004 (I counted).

As a snow-starved Southeasterner (a couple of years since we saw meaningful accumulations of snow), I can assure you that we'd WELCOME a SNOWFEAST here!

I can't remember a stretch this long without a really good gulf winter storm clobbering us!

Jeny

[Jrodd312]

if its supposed to be snowy and cold, weather.com shows temps in the upper 30's in the long range, but dry.

do you only rely on the weather channel?????

[Kennethb]

As the days grow longer and the sun begins to warm our hemisphere and it seems spring is here, the cold will make one last strong punch to try to equalize the temperatures on our globe. That's why there is usually more snow in February and March. Even down here in the south.

[JenyEliza]

if its supposed to be snowy and cold, weather.com shows temps in the upper 30's in the long range, but dry.

do you only rely on the weather channel?????

No, occasionally krysof also uses the GFS.

jeny

[Tip]

It seems that the GFS is begining to feel the change in the pattern advertised by the Euro model for the last 4 days. At the range we're looking at I'm sure there will be many details to iron out, but generally there is an overrunning event about 2-20 to 2-22 and a major bomb about 2-25. This will be the most interesting part of the winter with extreme blocking present over Greenland into March.

Overrrunning http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216s.gif

Bombs away!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312s.gif


Pattern change indices launch sequence

Negative Nao?

Check http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

Negative Arctic Oscillation?
Check http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

Positive PNA?

Check http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html


All systems are a go

[Stephanie]

Hmmm. Let me think about this.

OFA refugee

or

donsutherland?

Hmmm.

That's a toughie.

(NOT)

Jeny - **HIGH FIVE**

BTW - I stickied this thread so it doesn't get lost. This should be good!

[JenyEliza]

Hmmm. Let me think about this.

OFA refugee

or

donsutherland?

Hmmm.

That's a toughie.

(NOT)

Jeny - **HIGH FIVE**

BTW - I stickied this thread so it doesn't get lost. This should be good!

**HIGH FIVE** back!

This WILL be good!! And good idea on the sticky...wouldn't want to see this thread get lost!

Jeny