Mid Atlantic winter storm potential

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hey everybody. There is lots to talk about today including a winter storm threat for late this weekend across the northeast and possibly into the Mid Atlantic States. While this won't be like the Presidents Day storm of 2003, some places could see heavy wet snow later Sunday and going into Monday as well. I also have pictures of a beautiful sunrise on Tuesday morning as seen here on http://community.webshots.com/album/235673211mtxcXN/1

Now what about this winter storm potential. There is much to talk about including the need for a winter storm watch for Sunday and Sunday night as the snow becomes more likely even for the DC/Baltimore corridor. There are varying forecast model solutions to this including mostly rain and also a rain/snow mix. But one model the ETA indicates a colder solution, which I buy more so because cold air will be tough to erode away due to arctic high pressure to our north. Having said that, if we do see this scenario, we will be locked into the colder air longer, thus some places in central and northern Maryland could see 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow Sunday night, this will be praticularly true in areas north and west of DC and Baltimore and perhaps into Philadelphia also. This is the most extreme scenario, which at this point I see panning out for us in north central Maryland including Baltimore and possibly down into Washington as well as into Philadelphia area. If this trend continues, a winter storm watch maybe needed Saturday night to cover this upcoming event. Something will no doubt keep an eye on.

Meanwhile areas further north into parts of Pennsylvania and into southeastern New York could see a swath of 6-14 inches of heavy wet snow Sunday night into Monday night. So even though this is not like Presidents Day 2003, when you see 2-3 inch per hour rates of wet snow in bands, its tough to travel no matter how much snow falls. So as a result this system will need to watched closely.

While the exact timing and track of the storm has not been nailed down, the possibility of a colder solution promotes a higher snow probability for the major cities during the period from 2-20 to 2-22. Will keep an eye on it this weekend and into early next week. No doubt something potentially significant that will just have to keep an eye on.

Jim

[Jrodd312]

Hey everybody. There is lots to talk about today including a winter storm threat for late this weekend across the northeast and possibly into the Mid Atlantic States. While this won't be like the Presidents Day storm of 2003, some places could see heavy wet snow later Sunday and going into Monday as well. I also have pictures of a beautiful sunrise on Tuesday morning as seen here on http://community.webshots.com/album/235673211mtxcXN/1

Now what about this winter storm potential. There is much to talk about including the need for a winter storm watch for Sunday and Sunday night as the snow becomes more likely even for the DC/Baltimore corridor. There are varying forecast model solutions to this including mostly rain and also a rain/snow mix. But one model the ETA indicates a colder solution, which I buy more so because cold air will be tough to erode away due to arctic high pressure to our north. Having said that, if we do see this scenario, we will be locked into the colder air longer, thus some places in central and northern Maryland could see 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow Sunday night, this will be praticularly true in areas north and west of DC and Baltimore and perhaps into Philadelphia also. This is the most extreme scenario, which at this point I see panning out for us in north central Maryland including Baltimore and possibly down into Washington as well as into Philadelphia area. If this trend continues, a winter storm watch maybe needed Saturday night to cover this upcoming event. Something will no doubt keep an eye on.

Meanwhile areas further north into parts of Pennsylvania and into southeastern New York could see a swath of 6-14 inches of heavy wet snow Sunday night into Monday night. So even though this is not like Presidents Day 2003, when you see 2-3 inch per hour rates of wet snow, its tough to travel no matter how much snow falls. So as a result this system will need to watched closely.

That's the latest for right now. Will keep an eye on it this weekend. But right now I'm buying into a colder solution that promotes more snow even for the I 95 corridor Sunday night and lasting through Monday night as well. No doubt something significant that will just have to keep an eye on.

Jim

Nice post WXBUFFJIM. I hope our right becuase most people are calling for 2-4 or 3-5 in philly. I really hope we get 4-8 like you said. Very well done post though.

[Lowpressure]

I will be watching this as well here in D.C. area. It is cold right now, 29 degrees last time I looked. It will be tough to erode the cold air as fast as models are showing. I am tending to agree this time with a colder than indicated final result.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I got 29 degrees here at my place in southeast Baltimore County as of 3:30 pm and the chance of that type of air eroding away are becoming less, particularly while this winter weather event takes hold Sunday night into Monday. The thing I'll be watching during that critical time will be banding features, which could enhance snowfall rates up to over 2 inches per hour even in Baltimore and Washington potentially. So will have to watch the situation. Given this could be a wet snow, it could pile up on trees and powerlines as well. I'm still buying the colder model solution.

[Lowpressure]

Down to 25.6 degrees. LWX talking of issuing Winter storm advisories Saturday for some areas. Colder with a longer duration of snow seems to be the trend.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea, if they issue a winter storm watch, they need to issue it tomorrow. It seems appropriate given the timing prior to the event of 24-36 hours.

Jim

[Jrodd312]

Yea, if they issue a winter storm watch, they need to issue it tomorrow. It seems appropriate given the timing prior to the event of 24-36 hours.

Jim

Yes it does. Tomorrow would be the appropriate time to issue it. I think it will be issued for upstate maryland and and all of pa and of course ny and ma.

[Lowpressure]

Probably a pretty good guess for WSW areas. With other types of advisories to the south to around Fredericksburg/Charlottesville.