You want winter...you got it!

[PurdueWx80]

There has been sudden and almost unanimous agreement on the formation of a polar vortex in or near the Great Lakes sometime this weekend and/or early next week. What does this mean, you ask? It's going to cold (perhaps in an extreme way) in the Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Northeast. If it pans out the way I think it could, the pattern change could lock in for several weeks, bringing some of the coldest temperatures of the season.

I'll admit, I haven't been watching the models as often as usual since I've been moving and unpacking, but I have seen enough to know that there is now sudden agreement by the 00Z/12Z GFS, 00Z Euro, and 00/12Z Canadian models on some intensely cold air formation somewhere in the eastern half of North America. If a strong high (1045-1050 mb) comes down from the Northland as some of these advertise (literally from the north Pole), expect low temperatures well below zero again across the northern plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast, especially over snowcovered areas. The most likely time for this would be between this Friday (25th) and Tuesday (1st) and it could continue into much of next week. This would also bring very cold air to the Southeast, and perhaps even Florida later next week.

Once I get a closer look at the models and I can justify them with good reason, I'll do more of an in-depth model-based discussion.

[Suncat]

I'm looking for something to happen. This winter has really teased us this year and now, after a nice warm-up, it feels like the temperatures are taking a turn back to winter. Conditions in Raleigh today are cold, overcast, and raining off and on.

Accuweather is hinting about a storm event next weekend along with the convergence of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream. Either we could be looking at another cold rain or winter precip, depending on how low the temps go.

[Scorpion]

Not Florida! I was getting ready for spring. I thought winter was over here. I hate it when it gets cold in March.

[frankthetank]

ahhh...spring?where are you?

[Scorpion]

Ok, I can't read these maps very well but it doesnt look too cold for Florida. Hopefully it'll stay that way.

[gunner1551]

if i read that map right it reads only 4 C of most of Florida! thats cold for march.

[vbhoutex]

if i read that map right it reads only 4 C of most of Florida! thats cold for march.

That is at the 850mb level which is at the 2500' level or even higher if I am not mistaken. However, that does translate down to cooler than normal temps I beilieve.

[Aquawind]

if i read that map right it reads only 4 C of most of Florida! thats cold for march.

That is at the 850mb level which is at the 2500' level or even higher if I am not mistaken. However, that does translate down to cooler than normal temps I beilieve.

Yep.. Thus far they are going just below average for the weekend with a hint at a cool start for March in SW Florida.

Paul

[DLI2k5]

Based on the maps indicated, that looks like some very cold air coming down into the SE for next weekend. If this were to hold true, would this imply that most of the Carolinas would have the possibility of snowfall if we got a Miller A system to develop and move across our area? And, i don't mean just the mountains or foothills areas.

[madscientist]

I've grown extremely cynical for this season. I hope this is not another tease.

[krysof]

Cold air will be likely after Wednesday. With an active southern jet, a low pressure will likely form when the two jets crash together. If its cold enough, expect wintry weather in the south.

[frankthetank]

Euro is now backing off (day 6 looks mild here--ok not really mild, but not bad) and day 7 shows that the cold stuff once again looks to be coming down the plains on the backside of a low heading towards Chicago...

Theres a good article over @ wxrisk.com about 850mb temps and how to figure them out...