Winter storm chances building for the midwest! Thundersnow?!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

That's right, it looking again like another minor to moderate winter storm is gonna take shape in the central plains and into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday night. There's a chance that if column profiles are cold enough that a moderate to heavy period of snow may occur from Kansas into Kentucky by Thursday morning with a large area of 1-2 inch amounts and a sizable area of 2-4 inch amounts possibly 5-6 in heavier areas. A piece of energy has come off the low in California and is going to combined with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northwest to cause a wintry mess in Kansas and shove it eastward. The NAM model has overall done a good job on picking up this storm it has great precipation amounts, but is frankly a bit too south about 75 to 100 miles or so then what I think will accually happen. The GFS is just now starting to pick out on this storm but is rather weak as of the 18UTC model run of the GFS, still waiting on the 00UTC which may clear some things up a bit. Based on Radar trends and lift there is a chance of banding and yes even isolated to scattered areas of thundersnow as thunderstorms out of Texas and Oklahoma move into the colder airmass and change to snow. Some places that get thundersnow could pick up any where to 5-8 inches especially if banding is present. This is still a developing storm, but it looks more and more interesting by the minute. Of course this could still all bust and not come together just right (fairly common) But I just wanted to show and tell just what this surprise winter storm could be capable of if everything came together just right and at the right time. More tomorrow morning!!! Stay Tuned.

[Miss Mary]

Keep updates coming. A snow event Wed-into-Thurs wouldn't interfere with our plans too much. My kids could get that much needed final snowday they want (only one so far was before xmas)! Need a grocery run anyway....all I know is I won't shovel this time - about ruined my left elbow! Ouch. I told my family next time it snows a few inches, I am not shoveling....they of course thought I was nuts to say that, since they've just about declared winter overwith!

Mary

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Hehehe, Funny, but not to worry in OH, most of it should stay to your south and west and eventually east. You may still get an inch or two, but nothing that should require much or any shoveling. Kansas and Missouri through southern IL on the other hand, well that's alittle more debatable. 00GFS does show a stronger system moving through tomorrow night and Thursday, not again if it could only shift it north another 75-100 miles and man would I have a surprise snow storm. LOL

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-WX:

The 0z GFS is def. not our friend!! Of course, that dosen't mean much-prob. time to forget the models and look at radars and temps. I'm still wondering about temps. as I am currently at 39 my dew point is 29 so I might fall to around 30, but by the time the moisture gets here (if it does) I might be too warm-Wichita's soundings are all above freezing-places like Salina may make out ok with this and you may as well-but as far as KC goes, well, as all the mets would say, we "lucked" out again. Things can change quickly though-there is precip. breaking out already so we shall see!!!

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Here's my outlook in case anyone cares...


(I think I'm getting better with Adobe..)

[sertorius]

IndianaJonesDDT:

Good looking map!! The precip. is moving more east than North as of now, so I would think the models are handeling this pretty well. Of course things can always change, but there is no reason for the low to track further North esp. considering it is already in southern Oklahoma.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

IndianaJonesDDT:

Good looking map!! The precip. is moving more east than North as of now, so I would think the models are handeling this pretty well. Of course things can always change, but there is no reason for the low to track further North esp. considering it is already in southern Oklahoma.

Thanks. I had trouble making the map though because I couldn't see the state boundries and also the map was slightly tilted to the right.

[ohiostorm]

Does the Ohio Valley EVER have a chance for a storm?? haha

[BlizzzardMan]

Does the Ohio Valley EVER have a chance for a storm?? haha

Look out your window and tell me how much snow is on the ground. Does that answer your question? LoL

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Good morning everybody, here's my morning discussion for all you midwesterners

Well the system has develop and in someways is still developing in Missouri and Kansas with another short wave I talked about yesterday diving southward. Sounds like a major winter storm event doesn't it? But there's a catch and that is warm air in the mid and low levels of the atomsphere especially In southern Missouri and Kansas which might and seems to be hampering snowfall totals quite a bit. Thunderstorms from the southwest are moving north, northeastward which will add to the intensity of the precipation. The 00UTC and 06UTC models don't look all that good for snow bunnies, they look very uninviting, but that doesn't matter. The models are already somewhat wrong with the precipation shield taking shape 50-100 miles more north than almost all of the models predicted. Precipation being shot up seem to move the overall precipation shield ever so slightly with each mesoscale that tries to move northeastward. The next thing on the table is the distrubance moving out og Nebraska and into Missouri and eventually Illinois by lwte tonight or tomorrow morning. This will add to the lift and cooling in the atomsphere to help re-perk up snow and snowfall totals if it can come together at just the right time. As one forecaster in St. Louis, MO NWS Office said in his discussion, "THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A NICE WINTER STORM
THAT WILL JUST DUMP SNOW ON US..." I agree with him totally. This winter storm has spring like features with it .This winter storm is not of your normal kind. It's a headache not only for the models but also of course the forecasters. Regardless I still believe that someone somewhere is going to get a fair amount of snow mainly in either Missouri or southern IL. that 2-4 inches still stands with the isolated 5 inch plus especially if banding can occur combined with possiblity of thundersnow. That's right thundersnow, and or thundersleet is a increasing secret probably with this storm. The reason it's a secret is because no professional Met has said anything about it. But with high shear profiles and changing barometric zones along with temperature variations in the middle atomsphere will allow some areas to see some thundersnow/sleet especially in southern MO and southern, IL from late afternoon on. This could cause some local pockets of heavier snowfalls. Left forecast unchanged for today and have made slight if any changes to the going forecast other than to add the mention of possible thundersnow for late afternoon/tonight and early tomorrow morning. Also lower temperatures a few degrees as well with cooler air working in by afternoon.

[Miss Mary]

Does the Ohio Valley EVER have a chance for a storm?? haha

Tell me about it Luke!!!

I used to say Dallas got more snow than Cincinnati does.

Well, it did seem that way some winters these past oh 10-15 years. It just wasn't fair I said when I'd turn on TWC and saw Dallas getting slammed. Meanwhile here it would be January or February and temps were hovering around 40. Grrrrrr!!!

Local mets are confirming what you said Gothpunk, minor acuumulations here, more to our south and east. Dang.

Mary

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

1-5 Day Outlook (short term)


Day 0- 2/23/05 (Today)- Cloudy. There is a likely chance in Kansas eastward to St. Louis, MO of a mixture of rain and sleet in the day then changing to sleet and snow after 7pm, the precipation should spread into IL and western Kentucky late in the day. Heavy pockets of precipation and thundersnow/sleet are possible from late afternoon through the overnight. Snowfall accumulations 2-4 inches with a few places possibly picking upto 5 inches plus mainly in southwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Dry conditions and partly cloudy for everyone else. Highs will be around 34-38 southern zones, 32-28 midsections and 20s north. Lows in the middle to upper 20s south, lower 20s and upper teens midsections and low teens north. Chance of Precipation is near 100 percent for KS, Southern half of Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky only.

Day 1- 2/24/05- Cloudy. There is a likely chance in Missouri eastward to southern Indiana and all of KY mainly before 3pm, of a mixture of sleet/snow/rain. Snowfall accumulations of around an inch are possible. Dry conditions and partly cloudy for everyone else. Highs will be around 37-41 south, 35-30 midsections and 20s north. Lows in the middle 20s south, lower 20s and upper teens midsections and low teens north. Chance of Precipation is 50 percent for eastern MO, southern IL, southern IN, and all of KY only.

Day 2- 2/25/05- Partly cloudy. Highs around 45 south, middle to upper 30s in the midsections, and low 30s and 20s and north. Lows in the middle to upper 20s south, low 20s midsections and low teens north.

Day 3- 2/26/05- Partly cloudy. Temperatures will contiune to be seasonable. Highs around 45 south, middle to uppper 30s midsections and 20s north. Lows in the middle to upper 20s south, low 20s midsections and low teens north.

Day 4- 2/27/05- Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of snow early in the morning mainly before noon the changing to a rain/snow mix till 2pm before then changing to rain till 5pm. The Precipation may change back to snow for the northern two thirds of the midwest by midnight. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 south, upper 30s midsections and lower 30s and upper 20s for the north. Lows in the mid to low 30s south, upper to middle 20s midsections and teens for the north. Chance of Precipation is 50 percent.

Day 5- 2/28/05- Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain early in the morning mainly before noon the changing to snow. Highs in the upper to middle 30s south, lower 30s midsections, and 20s and upper teens north. Lows in the lower 20s south, upper to middle teens midsections and single digits for the north. Chance of Precipation is 50 percent.

Credit- Midwestern Weather Alliance MSN Groups