Cincinnati area winter weather ahead?

[therock1811]

Yep. It may be that some of us will deal with snow tomorrow morning.

Here's the setup...we have two jet streams (that is, upper level wind currents) working together. Unless you like the big storms that's never a good thing. There's abundant moist air from TX and Oklahoma to Arkansas and Louisiana. That has produced strong thunderstorms and even some very large hail (4.25" near the city of Abilene, TX last night). Meanwhile, colder air is filtering down from Canada and is producing snow over the Dakotas and Nebraska. IF the southern moisture and the cold air come together at just the right time and in just the right mix, we WILL see serious problems tomorrow morning.

MY current thoughts, compared with early thoughts from Rich Apuzzo of FOX19 from his e-newsletter:

With the moisture that looks to be available tonight and tomorrow, I would expect 1-2" in SW and S Ohio, and 2-3" in Northern KY primarily east of I-75. Rich is thinking 2-3" in Southern and SW OH with 2-4" in Northern KY. The heaviest snow will stay well east of the Tri-State with possibly 4-7" in WV/MD/VA, and maybe in DC and Baltimore.

I will have a late night update at 11pm, including the latest track possibility and adjusted accumulation amounts.

~Jeremy

[therock1811]

Snow advisory just issued for midnight tonight until 4pm tomorrow for all of Northern KY...Clermont, Brown, Adams, Clinton and Highland counties among others in Ohio, and Switzerland and Ohio Counties in Indiana. Details in the Winter Wx Statements thread in a couple minutes.

[Miss Mary]

Jeremy - although we live in Hamilton County, Clermont County is just one half mile away. So we pay attention to any Clermont County wx watches/warnings! Where I live, very eastern edge of the Cincinnati area, we could get more than the western part. At least we're hoping to!

Mary

[therock1811]

I don't blame you a bit. If I were that close to the county line, I would be paying attention too. I'm actually a mile from the Boone/Kenton county line. But yes, I think you get 1-3" out of this. Western Hamilton County won't see more than an inch in my estimation right now. I will note again, that the further south/east you go, the worse it will get, and the further north and west you are, the less you will see. Some areas may see only flurries, especially along I-70.

[SnowGod]

Ignore the storm in the Thursday/Friday range as it looks ordinary and to far south IMO(don't buy the NAM), but look at the Monday-Weds range, weird storm formation, but some ensemble partners had the 500mb low digging into the Ohio Valley and pulling the Southeast low back to phase with it ala November 1950 in the Apps. Probably the last hope this winter.

[therock1811]

I disagree with you SnowGod on the first point(with all due respect). While both the NAM and the GFS are showing tonight's snow, there are discrepancies in the amounts ranges. And the models have trended north with EVERY storm so far this winter. If that continues, I am in the wintry precip zone. But, I do agree that we should watch the Monday-Wednesday storm. And BTW this is tonight we're looking at it here in Cincinnati, not tomorrow night and Friday. This is the storm that will hit the NE on Friday. It has to get past here.

[therock1811]

Well based on radar trends it looks like the models are understating this. So, I'm going to up my estimates to 2-5" with isolated 6" amounts, best shot still south and east of metro Cincy.

[Miss Mary]

Monday Feb. 28th update. Instead of starting a new topic, I didn't think you'd mind if I used this one, Jeremy.

________________________

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... uery=45255

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM EST this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has issued a Winter Weather Advisory.

An inch of snow is forecast to accumulate tonight, with another 1 to 2 inches on Tuesday. Storm total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when snow is forecast to develop in the affected areas, but accumulations are expected to be light. Any snow would make driving and walking difficult but not impossible on untreated roadways and sidewalks. When temperatures are below freezing, motorists need to be especially careful on bridges and
overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather all hazards radio and other media outlets for further details or updates.

___________________

Mary

[carve]

We have ws warnings for central ohio..calling for 3-7 inches..any comments??

[therock1811]

Don't mind at all. Looks like 1-3" here as the NWS says.

BTW ended up with about an inch and a half at home from Thursday's snow.