Virginia/Maryland Winter Storm thread

[Lowpressure]

With an approaching winter storm headed for the Mid-Atlantic and many members in this area, I have started a thread to organize posts for this area. Feel free to chime in with any input or observations. This will be messy as it is during the day and on a workday. All are welcome regardless of where you live, input is always appreciated. Thank you.

[Fodie77]

I think this thread is a great idea. I'll try to keep it bumped, especially if the storm on Mon-Tues begins to develop. As for tomorrow, Bob Ryan of NBC says the possibility of 6 in. or more is very real. He seemed quite suprised that this storm decided to take such a more northerly track.

[fasteddy77]

Well, it looks like we will at least get some precip thursday into friday....

Weather channel is getting their act together in frederick, md with a total of 3-5 tomorrow and an addition 2-4 in the night hours into friday.

Will be waiting to hear of the warnings and updates that are issued later this evening.

[Lowpressure]

Expecting around 4-6 inches in the Fredericksburg area with a possible mix. Maybe 6+ or more in the Manassas area up through the Frederick, Kensington, Rockville area.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looks like a 6" + event from Baltimore, Washington, Fredricksburg north and east to Philadelphia and the north central Delmarva area. I think a general 5-10" band will set up in the above mentioned locations tomorrow from dawn and beyond into tomorrow night.

Hey did anyone feel a jolt this morning at 9:22 am??? It wasn't an explosion, it was a 2.0 earthquake centered near Pasadena, Maryland. I felt it here in Essex near Baltimore.

Jim

[Lowpressure]

I agree that somewhere a band of forcing will set up and that area could see 8 inches or better especially with little or no mixing.

[Fodie77]

I expect to get a solid six inches or so here in the valley.

[Lowpressure]

I think the 0z will be the final indicators of accumulations but 6 inches looks pretty good for a lot of the area.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Seems like 0Z models are consistent for a 5-10" snowfall for the I 95 corridor. It's brewing over the Ohio Valley and heading east to the Mid Atlantic. Snow is likely tomorrow. The progressive nature of this event and convection to the south if the limiting factor for possibly seeing amounts in the higher end of those totals.

A winter weather advisory is up or the Baltimore area right now, but will see if that gets upgraded later if the situation warrants.

Jim

[krysof]

the 0z is slightly further south and east, but its a very minor change and I knew it would happen eventually, but no big changes and a significant snowfall is still in the cards.

[Fodie77]

Seems like 0Z models are consistent for a 5-10" snowfall for the I 95 corridor. It's brewing over the Ohio Valley and heading east to the Mid Atlantic. Snow is likely tomorrow. The progressive nature of this event and convection to the south if the limiting factor for possibly seeing amounts in the higher end of those totals.

A winter weather advisory is up or the Baltimore area right now, but will see if that gets upgraded later if the situation warrants.

Jim

Yeah, I'm real suprised we only have an advisory on this.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea, but this will still need to be reevaluated. It could potentially be upgraded to warnings by morning. So we're not off the hook by any means at all. Still forecasting 5-10" for DC and Baltimore.

[krysof]

they also have an advisory in middlesex county nj for only 2-4 inches of snow. At least 3-6 should occur because 2-4 is too small.

[Lowpressure]

Warnings have been hoisted for D.C. and Balt, pretty much where expected, north of Stafford county in Va. It is already snowing here in Fredericksburg at 5:19 and 32.5 degrees as I get ready for work. Will stay in touch as I am working in Manassas today, in the heart of the warned area.

[krysof]

advisories have been changed to winter storm warnings for my areas for 5-9 inches of snow which is a lot better than 2-4.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Makes better sense to hoist the warnings for the DC, Baltimore corridor as opposed to an advisory. Snow totals easily reaches and exceeds warning criteria.

Jim

[jimvb]

In the Petersburg, VA, area we have a mix of rain, snow, and sleet. Nothing is accumulating. The temperature is about 35 degrees or so; it never went below freezing. Traffic is not hindered much, any more than on any other rainy day. The weather forecasters here were calling for 2-5 inches of snow for today on Tuesday, but when model runs came in moving the rain-snow line north, one of them posted "CHANGE IN FORECAST" in the NBC affiliate weather web page. They were talking here at work about how the ABC affiliate senior forecaster was calling for a big snowstorm with at least 5 inches of snow earlier in the week, and now nothing. I told people here at 1030 that it might not be as snowy as forecast; I had gotten that info from the ETA/NOM model 12Z run. They said that ABC should fire that guy and hire me:).

[IndianaJonesDDT]

In the Petersburg, VA, area we have a mix of rain, snow, and sleet. Nothing is accumulating. The temperature is about 35 degrees or so; it never went below freezing. Traffic is not hindered much, any more than on any other rainy day. The weather forecasters here were calling for 2-5 inches of snow for today on Tuesday, but when model runs came in moving the rain-snow line north, one of them posted "CHANGE IN FORECAST" in the NBC affiliate weather web page. They were talking here at work about how the ABC affiliate senior forecaster was calling for a big snowstorm with at least 5 inches of snow earlier in the week, and now nothing. I told people here at 1030 that it might not be as snowy as forecast; I had gotten that info from the ETA/NOM model 12Z run. They said that ABC should fire that guy and hire me:).

The forecasted totals keep decreasing. This is making me very very very very angry.

[Lowpressure]

We have 1-2 inches on the ground in Manassas and still snowing but the roads are good, just wet. Wife in Fredericksburg states over 3 inches on the ground as well as the roadways. I have employees in same general area also confiming at least 3 inches in Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.

[Fodie77]

Sigh....it looks like we've been duped here in the valley once again. Only an inch on the ground here in Winchester. We were forecasted for 4 to 8 in. What ever happened to the whole "more snow as you go north and west of DC rule?" I suppose maybe I can keep my hopes up for early next week.