Red Alert for Next Week!!!!!!!!!

[Planetsnow]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK - Larry Cosgrove
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

I have been talking about the major winter storm threat for a while now, and even though the outcome regarding track and structure of the system is not set in stone, the likelihood of an impressive event has grown to the "probable" stage. What makes the February 27-March 2 cyclone special? Try the scenario of phasing three separate jet streams (Arctic, Polar, Subtropical; best illustration of this is on the 0z Feb 25 GGEM panels). Add the presence of considerable deep moisture from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and throw in the prospect of a very convective profile with intenseUVV/Omega fields. There is indeed cause for excitement, and enthusiasts of extreme weather may come away pleased with the prediction for path and precipitation.

I am sticking with the ideas presented over the past four days: a storm track that hugs the Gulf and Southeast coastlines before bulging offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula, then cutting north-northwest into RI and MA as full phasing with the developing cAk vortex takes place. The initial stages of the disturbance will be marked by torrential rains across the Dixie states and a severe thunderstorm episode in FL; with a cP+cA wedge likely, an area including N GA....W SC....W, C NC may come under and ice or even snow threat on Sunday night as the surface signature tracks toward coastal NC. The 0z Feb 25 ECMWF and GGEM model scenarios are accepted, and with pronounced height falls occurring over the CAD domain I expect that the precipitation will fall as mainly snow or sleet/freezing rain about 50 miles west of the core pressure falls. Note that the vorticity maximum at 500MB deepens dramatically just before absorption with the formative Arctic vortex progressing through the Great Lakes (which will stir up sizable lake-effect snow showers and squalls into the middle of next week. This storm could generate impressive amounts of snowfall in the Interstate 95 corridor to the left of New Haven CT (eastern New England almost assuredly will see a change to liquid types) on Sunday and Monday. If I had to pick an area that could see the worst effects of the early week system, it would be a box bounded by Richmond VA....Smyrna DE....Sherbrooke QC....Rochester NY. Someone could be clocked by two-three feet of snow (higher elevations and downwind of Lake Ontario; this has Tug Hill Plateau written all over it), and some of the major cities in the Mid-Atlantic states may see their largest accumulations of snows this winter season. Followed by widespread cold into midweek.

Stay tuned!

[JETSTREAM BOB]

---It aint going to happen----------------JSB

[Ed Spacer]

It is all there...and slowly creating the scenario for it to come together.

[vbhoutex]

:roll: ---It aint going to happen----------------JSB

Why not? State your case!!!

[Planetsnow]

STOP being so pessimistic JSB!!!! Please tell us why. What evidence is there that you see that it isn't going to happen? Yes, there is a chance that it will not happen, but what evidence do you see?

[krysof]

when you see there is a chance that it won't happen, are you talking about the storm itself or that it won't be snow, mix or rain?

[Suncat]

We will be getting only rain from this storm, according to the NWS. Our highs will be in the 50's. for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

[krysof]

the 12z nam models had the storm slightly further east, and it was a little bit colder.

[rich02tj]

Any chance of this storm holding out until 3/5 or so?

[Lowpressure]

Any chance of this storm holding out until 3/5 or so?

Does not appear so.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Simply Put----------- it hasn't happened all winter,and the trend is my friend..........I don't need any progs to know it's not gonna snow in the S.E. the rest of the winter.............................JSB

[Seele]

Simply Put----------- it hasn't happened all winter,and the trend is my friend..........I don't need any progs to know it's not gonna snow in the S.E. the rest of the winter.............................JSB

If I remember right, didn't you get a few inches of snow in CLT during the last CAD event?

[JETSTREAM BOB]

nope, don't think so