Complete Model Breakdown... Second Call Accumulation Map

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

GFS:


Canadian:


MM5:


NAM (ETA):


NGM:


NOGAPS:


UKMET:


Based on all of this the coastal track is obviously now favored but alas there is a new problem, is the MM5 and the UKMET right? Is it now too far east, the heaviest snows if they were to verify would be on the coasts and they also have another backer in there corner... the EURO.

Personally I like the GFS and the Canadian here, although the GFS is screwing up the snow amounts just west of the heaviest axis in my oppinion.

The NAM is coming around but its stuborn-ness has made me wonder about this storm, maybe it's on it's way to coming in line, or maybe the axis will be just NW of the I-95 corridor if it ends up being right.

I'm not buying the out to sea track, not yet but it also does have me conceraned the UKMET is very good with Noreasters so this scenerio has to be watched

My Second Call:

[krysof]

I want it to shift east, I'm right near the coast of new jersey, the 9-14 is right next if not on my area, borderline. I don't want it to shift too far east though, I hope it doesnt'

[Jrodd312]

Now thats more like it. Finally in the 9-14 zone. (Montgomery county)

[QCWx]

You are way, way, way too low in your totals for NC.

[Lowpressure]

Does not look as though you have near enough snow for Northern Virginia down through Central NC. Locally in Fredericksburg forecast is sitting between 7-9. Greensboro is stating potential for 3-6 inches of snow in the triad.

[vbhoutex]

I am surprised at the diversity in the models this close to the event. It is obviously a tough one for them to grab onto. I presume this is because of the split flow. Without having put a lot of research into this storm, what I have seen leads me to believe that this storm will be a coastal hugger. I think some of the amounts for the areas further West from the I95 corrider depends a lot on whether there is a good phasing of the two lows. Some models show it happening, some don't. Overall I would say you map is pretty close to what may happen though. It will be interesting to see when the Gulf low really starts to crank as that will affect the precip types and amounts further south.

[krysof]

That low may really suprise us, it is packed with moisture, maybe the models and forecasters are underestimating it, it is the end of February to early March where some of the most powerful nor'easters occured within that time frame.

[fasteddy77]

Thanks for the latest map...

Jrodd312, were you talking Montgomery county MD??

I think these totals look exactly on the money....

But, my next question is....

What kind of snow will it be, wet and heavy, fluffy?? What are the wind speeds going to be... Will we see this snowing drifting??

[Jrodd312]

Thanks for the latest map...

Jrodd312, were you talking Montgomery county MD??

I think these totals look exactly on the money....

But, my next question is....

What kind of snow will it be, wet and heavy, fluffy?? What are the wind speeds going to be... Will we see this snowing drifting??

No i was talking about montgomery county pa. (NW of philly) And jer what happened with the site? When is it gunna be updated?

[IndianaJonesDDT]

There is nothing tough about it. The storm will feed off the Gulf stream and take a track off shore. The question is weather it will be cold enough.

Models have too many confounding variables and yet not enough to work with--Ironic. The models only show what the atmosphere can do with relation to the land, but they do not show what the atmosphere can do with relation to the ocean currents. (Ocean Currents (SST's) Control All Weather)

[krysof]

this forum has really gotten active over the past week, with all the snowstorms and major possible nor'easters its the first time I have seen it be so active

[RestonVA]

fasteddy, I can tell you this for sure, whatever falls will be heavy and wet. No light, fluffy stuff at all with this one.

[fasteddy77]

krysof,

I actually just found this website a couple of days ago and it's awesome!! It's exciting to see other people that are excited about the weather as I am!

[Brent]

this forum has really gotten active over the past week, with all the snowstorms and major possible nor'easters its the first time I have seen it be so active

You must not have been here during hurricane season... this doesn't even compare.

[krysof]

your right I wasn't here

[ohiostorm]

Totals have really dropped for the eastern seaboard. Thought they would be getting hammered.

[Jrodd312]

Totals have really dropped for the eastern seaboard. Thought they would be getting hammered.

You going to back that up with info????? Cause i think that the big cities will see the most snow based on the GFS and ALL other models except the NAM which is out of it.

[ohiostorm]

I was saying that based on his map. I have seen posts with higher totals for the cities. Calm down.

[JenyEliza]

this forum has really gotten active over the past week, with all the snowstorms and major possible nor'easters its the first time I have seen it be so active

I told you when you first joined here and complained about lack of activity, that this place gets to hopping when big things are developing. There ya go...I was right.

Enjoy your snow...and stay safe.

Jeny (from the snowless tundra of the deep south)

[IndianaJonesDDT]

That map is wrong. I would tilt the totals about 20 degrees to the left and make the 9-14 band reach northern Virginia.