LATEST GFS OUT!

[EXTONPA]

takes storm further west and its snowfall forcast almost exactly in line with what I had predicted earlier (give or take 1-2 inches). For example, it has Philly right on the edge of the 1-3 and 3-6 zone. South Jersey gets no snow, while most of North Jersey in the 1-3 zone. NYC on cusp of 1-3 and 3-6 zone...

1-3 Baltimore, Philly, Newark, Providence
2-4 West Chester PA, Allentown, Hartford, Andover Mass
4-8 Reading PA, Albany NY, Greenfield MA, Concord NH

[DS]

Further west? Compared to what? Its further east and weaker than its 18Z run, which should almost completely eliminate any mixing from Jersey north...

[EXTONPA]

0z is further west than 18z, with almost no snow I95 east

[spartyinmd]

Exton you are laughable!

It puts it basically out to sea at 30 Hours. Come on man! This is nowhere near what you are saying and anyways teh GFS Model is not even close to the otehrs...it is now the outlier.

[EXTONPA]

I did not comment on it's accuracy, I'm simply reporting the data; you may agree or disagree

[DS]

New run(00Z):

[/img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_024m.gif[img]



Old run (18Z):

[/img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_030m.gif[img][/img]

[spartyinmd]

Exton....its data??

The low in question over WV that you say has pushed West to prove your point is the clipper that is currently in teh Midwest. The low coming from the SE is out to sea according to the 30 Hour 0Z GFS. This doesn't prove your forecast one bit. If anything it just shows the low fromt eh SE not creating a big event in the NE. Nothing more. The SE Low itself is nowhere near where you say it is

[DS]

I would have to agree with spartyinmd. Unless the midwest low is the one you've been referring to, which I doubt

[spartyinmd]

DS...glad you agree with an NWS Meteorologist.

FYI I work as a Met and Computer Engineer for teh Main HQ of NWS in Silver SPring,MD. The folks that bring you their main website.

[DS]

Wait...there is an NWS in Silver Spring, Md? Is that the one affiliated with Sterling, Va? I could never understand....

[donsutherland1]

EXTONPA,

The GFS trended east. It did not go west.

[EXTONPA]

that's strange, the oZ GFS that I am referencing comes off of the accuweather site, and shows the low inland over n maine on weds, not out to sea..

[spartyinmd]

DS...

the NWS HEadquarters is in Silver Spring. That is teh HQ for the entire US. The WFO for DC is in Sterling. I work in the HQ with the people who oversee all of the data that comes in and make the analysis as to how the NWS did on the major events. Tornadoes, Hurricanes, etc.

[Karebear]

The METS in Baltimore just announced on the 11 o'clock news that the low is moving east. We will see around 6-12 inches of snow.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

ExtonPA, just admit we caught you red-handed.

[DS]

Well, if thats what your argument was, then you're probably right. I just thought you were talking about the position around the big cities.. My mistake.

[EXTONPA]

I'm probably looking at inaccurate data....I can do no right this evening...oh well

[Brent]

The METS in Baltimore just announced on the 11 o'clock news that the low is moving east. We will see around 6-12 inches of snow.

I could have told you that...

[EXTONPA]

well, if anyone subscribes to the accuweather pro site, check it out....

I love snowstorms, so if I turn out to look like an idiot, which it looks like I will, I'm still happy!

[spartyinmd]

Seriously Exton....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_fpc.shtml

Look here and then follow the low from teh SE up the coast and "out to sea" and then up to Boston and Maine. It does a fish hook type move. The low then stall and gets joined by the low in teh midwest over Northern Maine according to the plot. IT does NOT however move west.