March: Snow Mid-Atlantic Region

[IndianaJonesDDT]

Here is my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic so far: March

Week 1: A series of alberta clippers will slide north of the area producing little if any accumulating snows. (little being 4 inches or less) This would likely occur on the first weekend of March on a Saturday. (Just like I predicted several weeks ago)

Week 2: A mid-week snowfall may occur producing only a few inches--maybe too warm for the eastern shore so expect a change-over to rain.

Week 3: Temps will be on the rebound late in the week. Expect temperatures to be in the upper 40's for the most part with lows in the mid to upper 30's. Chance of snow diminishes from this point on. I would say that this is the official end to Winter in terms of snow.

Week 4: Sunday will be beautiful. Temps on the rise wih a significant drop in the mid-week, but it will go back to normal the day after. Expect a long rain-event on Friday through maybe Saturday.

For the rest of March: After the temps become more seasonal, rain storms will be common--expect rain to come mostly from the Southeast Pacific ( with respect to the US). The last few days of March will end on a high note with a high between 70 and 75. (great Biking weather) The morning of April 1st will be stormy but will clear up in time for April Fool's Day.

I hope it works out well for ya'll!


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Updates will be posted later for the possible snow regarding the rest of the northeast for Saturday and for the 8-11th. Let's make sure that we all learned something from the last few snowstorms--IF IT SNOWS BETWEEN 8:30am and 7:00pm, snow will not accumulate on the roads due to the sun's angle.

--IndianaJonesDDT reporting to you from Annapolis, MD--

[krysof]

actually local mets predict another stormy week next week, starting Saturday. The 8-11th period could be very active. At least 3 or 4 clippers will come through by then, but one or two of those clippers could get the influence from the moist atlantic and the sub tropical jet stream. I think one if not two of those clippers may move off the delaware or new jersey coasts and stall out a bit, collecting a lot of moisture from the sources of energy. One MAY become a moderate to strong coastal low.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

off topic: http://maddox.xmission.com/c.cgi?u=lotr1

[IndianaJonesDDT]

off topic: http://maddox.xmission.com/c.cgi?u=lotr1

go there immediately...it involves your LIFE!!!!!!

[Skywatch_NC]

Indiana,

What does your March: Snow Mid-Atlantic Region have to do with the website you posted?

Just wondering...

BTW...I do enjoy your forecasts/analyses!

[IndianaJonesDDT]

nothing but it's funny.

Anyone have info on the big snowstorm coming next week?

[JETSTREAM BOB]

This is my response---------

[krysof]

wow today is beautiful and so warm. Temps here in middlesex county, nj is 65 right now, now that is more like it for this time of the year instead of cold 30's and lows in the teens and 20's. By tomorrow, it will all be a memory, temps in the 40's will dive into the 30's throughout the day Tuesday and then into the 20's once the sun goes down. Wednesday morning temperatures will be in the teens. Here we go again, winter still here.

[IndianaJonesDDT]

I was looking at the GFS runs and they were all similar. They showed a few storms passing eastward to the south of the region and then about 4 frames before the cycle is done, all of a sudden a big-a@@ blob of purple explodes directly over Washington DC. It must be a mistake because in the models, there is nothing hinting any movement of any kind towards that area until in one frame everything turns green, blue, and purple...like the bruise on my leg from banging into a doorway a couple nights ago.

My point is that although it would fit in with my 1888 repeat scenario, the GFS just doesn't look right and my guess is that a chance at an 1888 repeat is diminishing.
See for yourself, it looks very sketchy and I'm very sceptical this time.

I've been thinking and maybe that explosion over the mid-atlantic might be the resultant of the jetstreams colliding as they did in 93'. Again, this is just a guess at how the h*ll that stuff just showes up out of nowhere.

If the model is right, then my house would be getting 2.50 inches of rain. That would be about 25 inches if the snow to liquid ratio were 10:1 consistently AND IF IT WERE COLD ENOUGH. With the sun at it's current relative angle to the earth--that would be about 20 inches on the grass with 5 inches on the roads.


Historic March Snowstorms that clobbered the Mid-Atlantic (not including Blizzard of 1888):

March 19-21, 1958: A slow moving nor'easter struck rather late in the season in 1958 causing huge amounts of property damage. Over a foot of heavy wet snow took a heavy toll on trees, shrubs, television antennas, power and communication lines. Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties was hardest hit. In Baltimore City, the storm began as rain during the day of the 19th but changed to heavy wet snow for the slushy commute home. It also changed to snow quickly to the northwest as the ground gained in elevation and the temperature fall. The Mount Washington section of Baltimore received 24 to 30 inches of snow. This section is just a 100 feet higher than the rest of the city. On Parr Ridge in Mount Airy, Carroll County, a weather reporter measued 33 inches of snow from the storm (4.03 inches liquid equivalent). Other reports included 29 inches at Parkton, 24.5 inches at Bentley Springs, 23 inches at Conowingo Dam and in Delaware, 27 inches at Middletown. For Westminister, 30 inches from this storm combined with two snows earlier in the month for a March snow total of 42 inches! Hagerstown saw 16 inches with areas to the west receiving considerably less. The Lower Eastern Shore saw 3 inches with areas to the north like Denton receiveing 13 inches.
Thousands of homes were without heat, light, power, and telephone service. Up to a million homes lost phone service and 2000 poles came down. 300,000 homes lost electricity including the entire communities of Frederick, Annapolis, Aberdeen, Bel Air, and Havre De Grace. For many, it was over a week before power was restored. Baltimore Gas and Electric estimated the storm damage to be 3 times greater than that of Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Major arteries were blocked by abandoned cars and fallen trees and branches. Damage was $10 million in Maryland and there were 8 deaths in the state attributed to the storm.

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March 5-9, 1962: The "Ash Wednesday Storm" was perhaps the most intense nor'easter of 20th century. It caused over 200 million dollars in property damage (1962 dollars) and major coastal erosion from North Carolina to Long Island, NY. The Red Cross estimated that 40 people died in the storm. In New Jersey alone, the storm severely damaged or destroyed 45,000 homes. It hit during "Spring Tide" (sun and moon phase to produce a higher than normal tide). Water reached nine feet at Norfolk (flooding begins around five feet). Houses were toppled into the ocean and boardwalks were broken and twisted. The islands of Chincoteague and Assateague were completely underwater. Ocean City, Maryland sustained major damage especially to the south end of the island. Winds up to 70 mph built 40-foot waves at sea. Heavy snow fell in the mountains to the west. Big Meadows, southeast of Luray, recorded Virginia's greatest 24-hour snowfall with 33 inches and the greatest single storm snowfall with 42 inches. Frostburg, Maryland had 21 inches in 24 hours and Cumberland had over 17 inches. Baltimore had 13 inches of snow. Roads were blocked and electrical service was out for several days in some areas. Areas to the east of the bay fell into the mixed precipitation zone.

[Stephanie]

If the Mid Atlantic ever saw another Ash Wednesday storm, the damage would be incredible since it is so built up now along the coast.

[donsutherland1]

IndianaJonesDDT,

Three quick points:

1) Extreme blocks have often seen a big storm that followed at some point. 1958, 1960, 1962, etc. For more details: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=58287

What the GFS and a few of the other models have hinted at just after mid-month is par for the course. What remains a bigger question is whether this would be a big snowstorm, big rainstorm, or some combination. Odds favor a snowstorm for at least part of the East Coast given that the extreme block occurred during a weak El Niño winter. One should pay particular attention to the synoptic setup to see whether it more resembles the March 1958 or March 1960 situation in the days ahead.

Per the March 8 GFS ensembles, there's a strong signal for a big storm sometime in the 3/16-20 timeframe. Once the NAO goes positive, the threat of such a snowstorm will likely be finished if it has not already taken place.

Needless to say, there is no guarantee of such a big snowstorm.

2) At least at this point, there is very little indication of an 1888-style setup. In the days that preceded the Blizzard of 1888, an exceptionally cold air mass--one of the coldest ever seen in March--had built over a very large part of eastern Canada. The 10-day Canadian Ensembles show a much smaller area of extreme cold.

3) The 1993 superstorm was the result of a rare triple phase where the Arctic, Polar, and Subtropical branches of the jetstream all phased. Such events are very rare . A double phase--Polar and Subtropical branches--is far more likely and might well occur before the current pattern begins to break down for good.

[krysof]

I'm done with winter now, today its freezing, yesterday was frigid especially in the morning. Come on Spring, come to us now, we need you.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

It's not coming Krysof, and I have a very interesting post especially for you coming around 10pm tonight

[Jrodd312]

It's not coming Krysof, and I have a very interesting post especially for you coming around 10pm tonight

lol!

[krysof]

your right, there will be something, except you have to go the Northern new england to find something

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Northern New England is done after this weekend, the focus is Northern Middle Atlantic Next Week, All will be explained later tonight

[krysof]

what about the fact that Spring is right around the corner and the stronger March sun, you have many things going against plus a pattern change will begin next week to warmer for the east

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

What pattern change are you seeing, the only chnges I see are ones that will make storm threats much higher, and as for the cold, it's not going anywhere?