2 Week Forecast For Pennsylvania

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

The Cold Trully Has Locked In And Is Making It's Mark Hard, But Are Any Storms In Our Future ???



--------------------Friday Midday Update------------------
Updated: 11:30pm 3/4/05

This is shaping up to be a very difficult forecast for the up-coming weeks, and I'm not starting out too good as teh GFS was finaly right about something, the clipper coming this Saturday will indeed be too far south and extremely week, I have to say I'd rather have the GFS be right about a stupid clipper than have it be right about a big ticket storm, so whatever, 1st clipper is a bust for our region... One thing that is not a bust is the very impressive cold airmass that just keeps rotating through over and over again, honestly this is an extreme cold for this late in the season... I know alot of you come on here to find out about storms and you really don't care about the cold, keep in mind that cold is one of the necessary ingrediants for a winter storm... So at least step one is there...

As for the others, well the pattern is perfect for winter storms but in all honesty time is running a bit on the short side (not running out), with that said there will be several chnace for snow in New England over the next two weeks, a few down to our region and even one possibly in the south (very un-common for this time of year).

The first storm will be a biggie by the time we get to Tuesday, and it will be centered just off New England's coast, that fact is pretty much in agreement the problem is how does it get there... I personaly like the idea of a massive warm surge blasting north as the storm approaches as far north as Boston, but I feel like its the type of phasing situation where it can precipitate behind the cold front and I do believe there will be a changeover to snow for the big cities, how much snow will there be remains to be seen as it will be 15 F warmer the day before so this will indeed be a complicated situation. Still on the table is an option where this thing phases before that just off the Mid-Atlantic coast and bombs out, that of course would lead to an even snowy-er situation, but at the time that possibilty is on the outside looking in.

Another storm system will make its run for the Virgina coastline Thurs-Fri, this storm does have potential to be a biggie (as pattern is close to Mar 93), but it has to come together early enough to make the big impact that it could

That system though might only be the precursor to the "March Monster" shortly there after, first this is the Fri storm has to come together, if it does it will bomb out and get stuck, this would create an influx of cold being rammed into the Northeast, With the log jam ahead of it this has potential to be a slow mover, perhaps even a "Staller"... But this is getting pretty far out there so nothing is set in stone.

After that does winter end at mid-month, there is an argument for that case, but there also are factors that would lead one to believe that winter will come back one last time for a true last stand.


The pattern is perfect my friends...

[Jrodd312]

Very nice Jer. The pattern is looking very good for snows in philly and suburbs. Liek you said everything just has to come together though. Its all there we just have to make something out of it.


-John

[ohiostorm]

Very good discussion. Pattern and cold are there. Lets just see if the storms setup like they need to. Our winter has been VERY boring here in Eastern Ohio so I would love to see one last winter storm before its all over.

[Guest]

You guys are lucky, but enjoy what you have this year, because in the years to come, the Pacific Northwest is going to steal the winters from the midwest and northeast... just giving you guys a hard time because i wish it was winter here... I think what i said is somewhat true, the part about the Northwest being wintry in the upcoming years with a negative PDO phase approaching.

[krysof]

once the clipper this weekend or clippers this weekend come through, the jet streams will collide and reinforce cold air once again, So the period from 7-12 could be quite stormy indeed. I disagree with the gfs, but the gfs sniffed out such a winter storm a few days ago. The gfs is terrible in mid range so don't trust what the gfs says or the forecasts which only use the gfs. They also use the Nam in the short range.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Brennan...

While agree that the east is do for a warm winter, and there are signs that point that it will be next year... I think the switch to La Nina may actually lead to one explosive year... If you remember that was the case in 1996, that was the year a switch occured from El Nino to La Nina... Also the sun spot cycle calls for one more real winter in the east before a return to what I agree will be a very warm period for the east.