Environment Canada: Mild winter for East, West

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TORONTO (CP) October 2, 2005 - Canadians in the East and West can look forward to unseasonably mild weather in the months ahead but most of Ontario and Quebec will likely have to deal with a normal Canadian diet of cold and snow, says Environment Canada.

The weather agency has released its preliminary winter forecast and it appears most of the country can hope for some respite from old man winter.

"What we're saying is from Vancouver to Thunder Bay, Ont., that western part of Canada is looking like it'll be warmer than normal, so it's a continuation of what the fall has been like," says senior climatologist David Phillips.

"And then also pretty much the Maritimes, Gaspe and Atlantic Canada is also going to be warmer than normal. But in Ontario and Quebec, (the forecast) is near normal," he says.

But because some regions got so much snow last year - southern Ontario got 25 per cent more than normal - Phillips is predicting less snow compared to last winter. Sort of.

"We're seeing precipitations below normal. Now, that doesn't always mean less snow because we never say the type of precipitation. It could be (you have) below normal precipitation but your snowfall is higher because you have less rainfall," he says.

But he's willing to say with more certainty that ski resorts in British Columbia should be happy with this year's winter.

"I'm almost sure of one thing. Last year was the worst season on record for skiing in British Columbia and I would almost bet my pension on the fact that they're not going to have a repeat of that," Phillips says.

"And the reason I say that is it was so incredibly wet - from rain and not snow and right off the record map - that you never have two years in a row that you break records. It's a safe bet."

Phillips says the reason it's likely to be so mild for much of the country is the unusually hot summer has left heat trapped in the ground and water.

"(The last) four months have been warmer than normal so there's a lot of stored heat in the lakes and the rivers and the land and the soil," Phillips says.

"It's going to take a little while before that heat gets away."


He says it's pretty clear that an early dose of winter isn't imminent because it hasn't even hit the northern parts of Canada yet.

"Until winter arrives in the North, it's not going to arrive in the south, that's where winter comes from," Phillips says.

But he says Canadians shouldn't get their hopes too high.

"Hey, we're the second coldest country in the world, we've never cancelled winter in this country," Phillips says.

He also warns that while Environment Canada got last year's winter prediction right, there are no guarantees.

Science has made forecasting much easier and more accurate, but it's still an inexact science.

"It's not like Malta or Cyprus, where it's easy to forecast the weather. These seasonal forecasts are very difficult in Canada because we are so far north. But we're getting better at it," Phillips says.

"I would've said five, six or seven years ago, if you wanted the forecast, go get the Farmer's Almanac. But now there is some science to it and what's driving that is we're monitoring the oceans better."

He says that in years where there is an El Nino or La Nina - and there isn't this year - it's easy to predict the weather.

A La Nina means colder waters in the Pacific and a colder than normal winter.

Phillips says the trend over the last few years has been for milder winters.

"We've had a preponderance of winters in the last several years that have been warmer than normal," he says. "The old-timers will tell me, 'Yeah the winters aren't what they used to be,' and I used to think, 'No, no, you just don't have a good memory.' Well, they're absolutely right," Phillips says.

"I don't know whether it's global warming or what have you but to get a good old-fashioned cold winter, there is less probability now than there used to be."