MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321.......CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

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CaptinCrunch
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321.......CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

#1 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:01 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...ND


VALID 051812Z - 052245Z

Image

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NE ND FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION
TO VERY STRONG NLY WINDS.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA PORTRAYS OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO WRN MN. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE/ON SRN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. AMPLE
OMEGA THROUGH DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HINDERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WCNTRL/NE ND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AMIDST THE HEAVY WET SNOW. VAD DATA FROM MINOT WSR-88D EFFECTIVELY
SAMPLES 50-65 KT NELY WINDS WITHIN 1-3 KM LAYER...WITH LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING.
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