2005 WHITE CHRISTMAS FORECAST FOR THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

[CaptinCrunch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


***** FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE*****




2005 WHITE CHRISTMAS FORECAST FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES


Prepared By: Neerav B. Trivedi, Chief of Headquarters 21A, and his Weather Staff


Date Issued: Tuesday, October 25, 2005 (next updated forecast to be issued in two weeks)



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FORECAST & DISCUSSION:

Here is the 2005 White Christmas Forecast for the Continental United States. We are expecting this winter (Winter 2005 – 2006) to be much worse than even last winter especially in the Northeastern United States, the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, the Mid-Atlantic United States, along the Appalachian Mountain Chain; and the Rocky Mountains regions, including the Sierra Nevada. Therefore, we expect the chances of a White Christmas this December to be much better than last December, especially in the Western United States, the Mid-Atlantic United States, the Northeastern United States, the Appalachian Mountain chain, the Rocky Mountains, and the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. It will be too warm for a White Christmas for the Deep South, the Southeastern United States, the southern and central Plains and Midwest, the Southwestern United States, the Pacific Coast (except in the mountains), and in the Northwestern United States (including the Northwestern United States, except in the mountainous areas), unfortunately. We expect a weak to neutral ENSO this winter, and a very negative AO and NAO for the month December. The PDO and PNA values are more uncertain values to forecast, but are expected to fluctuate heavily between the positive and negative values, but are expected to stay neutral to negative though Christmas, with some positive values as well, especially in early and mid-December 2005. The MJO is expected to be neutral to negative for the most part this winter season, especially in the month of December, with some fluctuations in the positive value areas. This should add to the snow and cold this winter.

This is our fourteenth Winter Weather Season in the United States, and our ninth White Christmas Forecast that we are issuing…this time, for the entire Continental United States, instead of just for the Northeastern United States region for the very first time.


Here is the region-by-region breakdown of the Continental United States for the chances of a White Christmas this for December, from December 1 – December 25, 2005:



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NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES:

Areas: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York State (including Long Island and NYC), Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.


In the Northeastern United States, expect temperatures to be 15 – 20 degrees below average for the month of December with precipitation to be above average. New England, most of New York State, especially in the mountainous areas; and near the eastern Great Lakes area via lake effect snows, such as in the northern, western, and central portions of New York State is forecasted to have around a 100% chance of a White Christmas. The Hudson and Mohawk Valley areas of New York will have around a 90% chance of a White Christmas, while areas along the Long Island Sound in Connecticut and in and around Cape Cod, Massachusetts are forecasted to have an 80% chance of a White Christmas due to the influence of the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. New York City and Long Island, New York are forecasted to have around a 70% chance of a White Christmas this year. The northern half of New Jersey will have a 70% chance of a White Christmas and the northern, northeastern Pennsylvania are forecasted to have a 80 – 85% chance of a White Christmas, and eastern sections of Pennsylvania below that are expected to have around a 70 - 75% chance of a White Christmas. The western parts of Pennsylvania are expected to have a 90 – 95% chance of a White Christmas with early lake effect snows forecasted starting in late November/early December 2005. The southern half of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, including the cities of Philadelphia and Trenton will have around a 65% chance of a White Christmas this year.



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MID-ATLANTIC UNITED STATES:

Areas: Delaware, Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.


In the Mid-Atlantic United States, the temperatures will average 5 - 15 degrees colder than average for the month of December, with rain and/or ice in the southern half of the Mid-Atlantic United States, and snow/ice in the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic United States this December, with above normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic United States. In the areas in and around the Appalachian Mountain Chain, expect a 90% chance of a White Christmas. Areas in the northern, northwestern, and western portions of Virginia along the Appalachian Mountain Chain are forecasted to have an 80 – 85% chance of a White Christmas. The mountainous portions and the northern portions of West Virginia are expected to have a 70 - 75% chance of a White Christmas this year, with the lower areas in the valleys of West Virginia in the valleys expected to have a 60 - 65% of a White Christmas. The areas closer to the mountains of West Virginia are expected to have a 65 – 70% chance of a White Christmas. Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia are expected to have a 60 - 65% chance of a White Christmas this year, while areas of Maryland and Delaware near the Atlantic Ocean are expected to have a 50% chance of a White Christmas this year due to the influence of the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The northern half of Virginia will have a 55% chance of a White Christmas this year, while the rest of Virginia (excluding the northern, northwestern and western portions) and both North and South Carolina will have less than a 50% chance of a White Christmas this year, especially near the unusually warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The mountains of the Carolinas may have a 50% chance of a White Christmas, especially in th ehighest elevations of the Piedmont.




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TENNESSEE & OHIO VALLEYS AND THE UPPER MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES:

Areas: Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin


We are forecasting temperatures to be 5 – 15 degrees below average and precipitation to be at or above normal this December for the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions, along with the Upper Midwestern portions of the United States. This is especially with the lake effect snows being turned on starting in mid or late November 2005. The extent of the lake effect snows will affect the White Christmas probability in the Upper Midwest and even the northern portions of the Ohio Valley region. The northern-most portions of the Upper Midwestern United States and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, along with areas that are heavily affected normally by the lake effect snows are expected to have around a 100% chance of a White Christmas. These areas have the most certainty for a White Christmas, climatologically speaking, for the Upper Midwestern United States. The rest of Wisconsin and Michigan, along with the northern half of the Ohio Valley region is forecasted to have an 85% chance of a White Christmas this year, feeling a good amount of the lake effect snows that come from Lakes Michigan and Huron. The southern half of the Ohio Valley area is forecasted to have a 75% chance of a White Christmas, and finally, the Tennessee Valley area is forecasted to have a 65% chance of a White Christmas this year. These two areas will not feel the lake effect snows as much as incoming storm systems, which are slow moving or are powerful, and/or merge with other storm systems.



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GULF OF MEXICO REGION OF THE UNITED STATES:

Areas: Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma.


For the Gulf of Mexico region and the Deep South, expect temperatures to be 5 degrees below normal with precipitation at or below normal. The chances of a White Christmas for the Gulf of Mexico is slim to none, however, we will not rule out the chances of early frost and freeze, cold outbreaks, and ice storms in the northern-most portions of the Gulf States, especially in northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Oklahoma and northern Texas and in northern Georgia. We do not expect them to get any snow or snowstorm for that matter for the South and Deep South for December 2005.



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MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES & PLAINS STATES:

Areas: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri.

The Midwestern United States and the Plains States of the United States are expected to see temperatures anywhere from 5 – 15 above normal, with occasional cold snaps which brings temperatures as much as 10 degrees below average for December. Precipitation should be around average in the Midwestern United States and in the Plains, but will be above normal in the northern most third of this region, and in any major snowstorms that hit the region. Expect frequent ice storms and frost and freeze in this region, with an occasional snowstorm, though it will mix with and/or change over to rain for some of those snowstorms. Overall, though, the chance of a White Christmas for the Midwestern United States and the Plains States looks to be moderate, with an 80% chance in the northern-most areas and a 30% chance down in the southern-most portions. The average for a White Christmas this year is about 50% for the entire forecast region. The central and southern portions of the Midwest and the Plains states will have less than a 50% chance of a White Christmas, as it will be too warm for snow, though with any cold air snaps that occur, snow/ice storms cannot be ruled out, as well as an occasional snowstorm for this winter, and possibly for December. This includes Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and the southern half of Iowa. The northern half of Iowa and the southern parts of South Dakota and Minnesota will have around a 60% chance of a White Christmas with a better chance of precipitation being mostly snow this December with occasional warm temperatures and ice and rainstorm here and there. The northern parts will have a 70% chance of a White Christmas, with mostly snowfall as the precipitation, especially from any major snowstorms that will bring heft snows for the area, while the northern-most portions will have an 80% chance of a White Christmas this December.



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ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE UNITED STATES:

Areas: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico


The Rocky Mountain region is expected to be 5 – 15 degrees above normal except in the mountains, where December temperatures are expected to be anywhere fro 10 degrees below to 5 degrees above normal on average. Precipitation is expected to be below normal for the region, as a ridge is expected to dominate for December…however, there are times when it will break down, leading the way for good snows in the mountains (and good rains in the valleys). The overall average, like the Plains/Midwest region of the United States, is around a 50% chance, as the high percentage in the mountains balances the rather low percentage of a White Christmas in the valley and flat areas of the Rocky Mountain States, especially in the Southwest. The highest percentage of a White Christmas will be in the central Rockies, namely in the mountains of Utah, southern Idaho and the western and southwestern parts of Wyoming, where averages for a White Christmas this year range from 60 – 100%, especially in the highest elevations. However, since a ridge will dominate the West this December in the Western United States, precipitation will be not as much, so the valleys will suffer a great deal, bringing the chances of a White Christmas very low for the valleys, anywhere from 0 – 40%. A majority of the snows will be in the mountainous areas, hence the higher chances of a White Christmas, which balances out the percentage for this region on or about the 50% level.



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PACIFIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES:

Areas: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and California.

The Pacific Coast is expected to see temperatures 5 – 10 degrees above normal on average for December, with below average precipitation, especially in the southern portions of the Pacific Coast. The chances of a White Christmas for the Pacific Coast of the United States is rather slim, the overall average for the region is 40%, with a 60 – 65% chance in the mountainous areas, especially in the highest elevations. A majority of this area is flat, so the chances of a White Christmas is rather slim to none, while as you go up every few thousand feet, the chances of a White Christmas increases by 15%. Expect the Pacific Coast to be mainly dry this December and for most of this winter, though rain/snow storms on occasion, and a big one will hit them or two cannot be ruled out this winter season for that region.


- Neerav B. Trivedi

[CFL]

I've just moved to the Lexington, Kentucky area from Florida? Would I be considered to be in the Northern Ohio Valley region or Southern Ohio Valley region? How much snow, if any, do you think I could see this winter season?

[Cookiely]

I've just moved to the Lexington, Kentucky area from Florida? Would I be considered to be in the Northern Ohio Valley region or Southern Ohio Valley region? How much snow, if any, do you think I could see this winter season?

I'm not sure which region you would be but here is a link to snowfall averages and hi-low temps. BRR!! Minus 21 is too cold for me.
http://www.weatherbase.com/weather/weat ... 3?s=022427

[CFL]

Great link - thanks! Wow - it really can get cold here. I'll actually have to start buying winter clothes for a change. No more shorts on Christmas.

[f5]

nobody thought south texas would get a white christmas

[Coredesat]

Great post, though I'm torn. I want a white Christmas, but then again, I want it to be nice so I can go on vacation the week after that.