Next Noreaster Setting Up -- Nov 3-5?

[nin9inch9nails]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion based upon my interpretation of NCEP generated forecast models. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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I live for winter weather and am always looking for the next potential event for my area (Pittsburgh, PA). Altough the mountains/ridges to the east picked up significant snow yesterday, the immediate Pittsburgh metro area managed to only see some wet snow flakes.

Looking toward the future...three out of the last four GFS runs have been broadcasting a significant event for the end of next week for the northeast.

As much as looking forward to the next event, it will be interesting to see how the GFS handles long range events this season.

Looking forward to a long cold snowy winter in Pittsburgh PA!

Surface and corresponding 500mb forecast maps follow.

[ohiostorm]

Would be nice to see some snow early in the season. I'm only about an hour from Pittsburgh. I actually work at the Pittsburgh International Airport. On my way home the other night I ran into some snow flakes while driving. Nothing at the airport though. The rain/ snow line was near Interstate 70. That was where the accumulating snows fell. I havent heard anything on this system yet but its early still. We will see what happens. I would like to see some snows. Last winter sucked!

[snowyobi]

I also live in Pittsburgh and was soo disappointed with last years winter. The snow stayed to the south and east last year. I do think we may have a bad winter here as well because the last time it snowed in October we had a lot of snow.

I read today on Accuweather that TS Beta may be brewing!!! Unreal!!!

[nin9inch9nails]

Yes, the cold air pool (850mb) moved just south of Pittsburgh. Then of course, elevation came into play in the ridges to the east.

A friend emailed the below picture taken in Johnstown PA yesterday morning.

[snowyobi]

WOW! what a beautiful picture!!! Hope to see it here soon!!!

[nin9inch9nails]

12Z GFS is advertising the same idea as before. The 500mb trough is not as amplified this run, but is positively tilted.

[nin9inch9nails]

Easy come easy go......not looking very healthy with the 18Z run.

But there's always tomorrow!

[wxwatcher91]

I am in Keene, NH at 1000ft

I got 2 inches of snow from the last storm

the NWS is talking about another noreaster for Friday into Saturday with possibly more snow this time with colder temps. by the way they talked about it in the forecast disco, I think they think it could be a big one.

I'll have to look into this one projected for early November. thank you!

[Tri-State_1925]

the NWS is talking about another noreaster for Friday into Saturday with possibly more snow this time with colder temps. by the way they talked about it in the forecast disco, I think they think it could be a big one.

From what I'm hearing and reading, this isn't going to be that big an event, but it also sounds like the forecast is in flux with the storm track in question.

Of course the Weather Channel local forecast still mentions nothing of this (and 50 degree weather all weekend).

Taunton NWS does...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=132

[nin9inch9nails]

wxwatcher91 wrote---->I am in Keene, NH at 1000ft

I got 2 inches of snow from the last storm

the NWS is talking about another noreaster for Friday into Saturday with possibly more snow this time with colder temps. by the way they talked about it in the forecast disco, I think they think it could be a big one.

I'll have to look into this one projected for early November. thank you!
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cyclogenisis is too far off the coast for this weekend's storm to impact your area. The 11/3-4 event has frizzled out.

[nin9inch9nails]

GFS has resurrected the event, just when it looked dead. Now we need to get the solution a little colder and presto...a NE snowstorm!

Stay tuned, the rollercoaster ride continues

Don't you love it?

06Z 11/28 run forecast maps below.

[Tri-State_1925]

cyclogenisis is too far off the coast for this weekend's storm to impact your area.

Doesn't look like that is true. Keene should get some snow from what I've seen, but we're only talking 1-2 inches max.

[wxwatcher91]

latest talk of the NWS is its going to far out this weekend for anything... yet 12 hours ago it was the opposite...
I dont think think they will know until it happens lol. this has been a rollercoaster of a forecast.

basic summary: precip starting up eastern zones late tonight. any precip will begin in western zones early tomorrow morning. current track gives higher elevation eastern zones 2 inches of snow and western zone a coating if anything. a shift west in the track gives higher elevation eastern zones 3-4 inches of snow and western zones 2-3 inches of snow.

a quick FYI: Mt Washington has recieved 72 inches of snow in the past 12 days; a record for October.

[Tri-State_1925]

The latest NWS stuff I saw this evening was still calling for snow at the higher elevations over central areas...not much, but they're still talking about it. So I'm going to stay positive here...

On the other hand, the local TV mets have been IMO dismissing this right from the beginning. Not surprising because their primary concern is Boston and Boston will be getting rain, not snow.

Well...we'll see what happens. As usual, I'll be all over this if anything goes on.

[nin9inch9nails]

latest talk of the NWS is its going to far out this weekend for anything... yet 12 hours ago it was the opposite...
I dont think think they will know until it happens lol. this has been a rollercoaster of a forecast.

This one was very difficult to nail. 50 mile east or west makes one a hero or goat.

[boca]

At least tracking winter snowstorms is easier than huricanes.

[nin9inch9nails]

10/30 06Z model runs are way out of sync with their 78 hour solution for the event.