Glenn Schwartz winter prediction for philly

[truballer#1]

Are u going to see Glenn Schwartz winter prediction tonight? and how much snow do u think his going to predict

[Stephanie]

I'm usually in bed by 10:30....

I'd be interested in finding out. Let us know!

[iwantsnow321]

Ill b watching.

[Stephanie]

According to Glen, it doesn't seem like it's going to be an extreme winter;

http://www.nbc10.com/weather/5377364/detail.html

[krysof]

According to Glen, it doesn't seem like it's going to be an extreme winter;

http://www.nbc10.com/weather/5377364/detail.html

Thanks Glen, I guess this means I could unload my shorts and shirts. According to him, this is going to be a hot winter. It's been cold though right now, and may get colder in the next few days, even some snow is possible. I actually may have to agree with him. This winter may be the warmest on record for the east. The nao is the key factor. Everything factors for a mild east because of the PDO and other factors. If the Nao is positive then he's right. A negative nao may still not mean a snowy and cold east though.

[donsutherland1]

From the data, I've been looking at and trends in that data, I'm increasingly confident that the December-March NAO will likely average < 0.

Also, I remain reasonably confident that there will be a neutral ENSO, possibly somewhat biased on the warm side in Region 3.4. In fact, the weekly anomalies now show some warming over the past week:

Code: Select all

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
02NOV2005     19.8-1.5     24.3-0.7     26.5-0.1     28.7 0.3
 09NOV2005     20.2-1.3     24.2-0.7     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.2
 16NOV2005     21.0-0.6     24.3-0.7     26.5 0.0     28.6 0.3


FWIW, I'll provide some statistics for Philadelphia's seasonal snowfall for seasons where the December-March QBO averaged -10 or below and then take a closer look at those where the NAO also averaged < 0 (December-March). The record begins with 1950-51.

QBO: -10 or below:
Seasons: 11
Median snowfall: 20.5"
Mean snowfall: 17.4"
20" or more: 6/11 (55%) seasons
25" or more: 4/11 (36%) seasons
Maximum: 27.4"

QBO: -10 or below and NAO < 0:
Seasons: 8
Median snowfall: 25.4"
Mean snowfall: 22.5"
20" or more: 5/8 (63%) seasons
25" or more: 4/8 (50%) seasons
Maximum: 27.4"

All said, I remain comfortable with my preliminary idea of 20"-30" for Philadelphia. Of course, I could be mistaken and no forecast can be verified until the end of the season.

[Stephanie]

Your forecasts have always been very reliable don. I know that if the NAO stays negative then we should get some stormy periods.

[Jim Hughes]

From the data, I've been looking at and trends in that data, I'm increasingly confident that the December-March NAO will likely average < 0.

Also, I remain reasonably confident that there will be a neutral ENSO, possibly somewhat biased on the warm side in Region 3.4. In fact, the weekly anomalies now show some warming over the past week:

Code: Select all

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
02NOV2005     19.8-1.5     24.3-0.7     26.5-0.1     28.7 0.3
 09NOV2005     20.2-1.3     24.2-0.7     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.2
 16NOV2005     21.0-0.6     24.3-0.7     26.5 0.0     28.6 0.3


Don,

There has been hardly any upwelling lately compared to last month and the PMEL upwelling index shows this so the SST's should not have stayed as cool as they were. The positive SOI trend also changed a couple of weeks back. It is almost neutral now.... Space weather related in my opinion.

OTOH there is still a fair amount of cold water below. So any trend towards positive SOI /increased upwelling will end up cooling the SST's. The question is will there be more below over the long haul? The western subsurface is starting to warm but it can not currently move eastwards. It has been falling apart as it does.

The atmosphere has been tilted for quite some time towards La Nina conditions when you consider the atmospheric angular momentum readings.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/aam.shtml

It only favored warm conditions briefly last winter. There is definitely a battle going on. I say watch the stratosphere at the poles. This is like a scorecard and it tells us who is winning.



Jim