Nor'easter Brewing for East

[WindRunner]

GFS might be having some fun with us, but take a look at this pictures for the 240 and 252 hour time frame (middle of next week)

228hr
240hr
252hr
264hr

Potential QPF totals for event: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_276m.gif

Now I know not too many people like the GFS when the numbers are that big, but those kinds of totals this early in the season are rather remarkable.

[truballer#1]

its far away but something to watch. I hope its right because I get over 2 feet

[iwantsnow321]

IFFF this event happens, then it is all snow for PHILLY!!!!! OVER 2 FEET!!! LOOK AT THOSE QPF'S!!!!

[hack]

Sorry to burst your bubbles but its only going to snow in DC. Everywhere else will be rain

[WindRunner]

Sorry to burst your bubbles but its only going to snow in DC. Everywhere else will be rain

Now that would be funny.

[wxwatcher91]

IF this plays out, temperature will be a big factor...

wow

I noticed it before I went to the forum. I freaked out lol

[vbhoutex]

Ok help mr. stupid here. Where is the bombing low over NC coming from. I see no indication of it previous to that unless it is the same low as the clipper coming in from the NNW. Tell me what I am missing here. Below were my initial thoughts on it, but I keep going back and looking at the graphics.

IIIIIIIFFFFFF it verifies, it looks like an Alberta clipper coming in and bombing over the Carolina's. I guess once headed up the coast it would be called a nor'easter, which I don't see happening in those graphics. Am I missing something? Also would be possibily be historic in that it shows the possibility of heavy snow for much of the SE all the way to the GOM coast.

[WindRunner]

I think if you go back a couple of days, it's that same system that Portastorm has a thread about affecting Texas. It continues into the gulf, picks up moisture, and bombs as it heads north.

(BTW - if you looked at the 228hr link, that was the wrong one and it has been fixed )

[wxwatcher91]

latest run has warmer air further inland... and no more red showing up lol...

if it verifies, it will be a rain storm...

[truballer#1]

temps are going to be a big factor!

[Stephanie]

Ok help mr. stupid here. Where is the bombing low over NC coming from. I see no indication of it previous to that unless it is the same low as the clipper coming in from the NNW. Tell me what I am missing here. Below were my initial thoughts on it, but I keep going back and looking at the graphics.

IIIIIIIFFFFFF it verifies, it looks like an Alberta clipper coming in and bombing over the Carolina's. I guess once headed up the coast it would be called a nor'easter, which I don't see happening in those graphics. Am I missing something? Also would be possibily be historic in that it shows the possibility of heavy snow for much of the SE all the way to the GOM coast.

This is where the GFS really tends to over-blow things. Everything is of "historic proportions" at this time frame.

I didn't look to the maps earlier than the 240 hr, but you're correct in saying that it would be a Nor'easter once it bombs out (or is over the ocean by the Carolinas) and heads up the coast. When cities are feeling the affects of that storm, the winds will be coming out of the NE at that time, thus a Nor'easter.

[WindRunner]

I have to tell you, wxwatcher, I'm one of those people who pays more attention to the 00Z and 12Z runs, as they seem to have a better solution sometimes. Whether or not that is true, I really don't know. So I'm going to wait until I see the 00Z run (which should be out now, but isn't) before making any conclusions as to the amounts. Temps were close last time, and (as always) it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[vbhoutex]

I think if you go back a couple of days, it's that same system that Portastorm has a thread about affecting Texas. It continues into the gulf, picks up moisture, and bombs as it heads north.

(BTW - if you looked at the 228hr link, that was the wrong one and it has been fixed :D )

Now it makes sense to me. I couldn't figure out where the low bombing over the Carolinas was coming from.

[truballer#1]

There is still a possibillity for a big snowstorm for the east. If everything plays out right for it to be a big snowstorm then there could be widespread 12"+. It could be a MECS or HECS

STILL A WEEK OUT TO LOOK AT THIS

[truballer#1]

[Stephanie]

Looks impressive. We'll have to wait and see.

Did you notice the "0" temperature line? That's the freezing line in Celsius. I'll be on the warm side and you may be as well, but that doesn't necessarily mean we won't get some kind of frozen precipitation. We actually could get sleet since it's so close and perhaps some snow.

[wxwatcher91]

Ill reiterate the temperatures will be a huge factor (at least according to model)

the NWS is hinting at something on Monday (day 7)
is that the same storm or not? this system the GFS is showing is up for day 9 and 10

the MRF is also showing something:


the MRF has it coming more from the west than the south...

[krysof]

Looks impressive. We'll have to wait and see.

Did you notice the "0" temperature line? That's the freezing line in Celsius. I'll be on the warm side and you may be as well, but that doesn't necessarily mean we won't get some kind of frozen precipitation. We actually could get sleet since it's so close and perhaps some snow.

I'm very close to the 0 celsius line, and the low pressure would just have to move slightly eastward for it to be snow.

[WindRunner]

How the GFS has changed! Still a pretty big storm for the east, but a much different setup, and a good bit drier because of it.

Our focus is now all day Wednesday and Thursday morning of next week.

Verbage:
The GFS now takes this system that was coming through TX and the Gulf, and sends it through OK ans straight to the Mid-Atlantic as a relatively moist system for one coming from the due west. It now develops this low as it heads offshore off of the Delmarva, and deepens it as it heads into New England. Overall, a much drier storm for the Mid-Atlantic, and much wetter for New England, as a powerful low develops further off the coast earlier in the week and heads ashore into the Canadian Maritimes.

Graphics:
Our focus now shifts to the 204-240hr time frames.

204hr
216hr
228hr
240hr

QPFs are down for Mid-Atlantic, especially a good bit of PA and WV, and still down a bit for VA, MD, DE, and southern NJ.
Most of New England's have risen, due to the new northward component of the track and the previous low to move onshore in the Tuesday time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240m.gif

Temps are a larger factor then ever, and it appears as if the majority of the event will be frozen from the Mason-Dixon line northward, possibly a brief rain at the beginning, and moreso of an exception on the coast.
As for these frozen precip amounts, MD, DE, and VA should see about 4" guaranteed snow at this point, the Poconos, most of NJ and eastern NY should see 6-8" frozen, whereas most of New England will see a good bit of rain at the start, swiching over to a decent (12"+?) snowfall, especially in inland Maine.

Two parting words: One, this is an 18Z run which I (like I said) tend not to favor as much as the 00Z and 12Z ones, and two, this is still Days 9 and 10. Plenty can change and these numbers are rather simple approximations from a long-range prediction. Take them rather lightly for the next day or two, until some more experienced forecasters have a chance to analyze the situation.

[Stephanie]

I'm not that far from the celsius line either, Krysof. It looks like it maybe one of the many storms that we've seen in the past that have us right on that border line - AGAIN!