
alabama snow next week?
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alabama snow next week?
Does anyone here think alabama is due for some white stuff next week? Around thursday-friday? I tend to wishcast for snow so I was wanting a realistic prediction. I hope I have to stock up on bread and milk. 

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Looks like an ice problem to me. The cold air will be shallow. I hope it's snow... but it looks unlikely.
From James Spann in Birmingham:
WINTER STORM THREAT? I have growing concern over a storm developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. If this were January, I would really be concerned over an ice storm across the deep south. But, this is December, and winter storms are pretty rare this early in the season.
A cold, 1040 mb high should be sitting around Kansas City as a deepening surface low forms in the Gulf. We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place here in Alabama, probably much colder than the models understand. I don't think the air will be deep enough to support snow; if we were to have winter weather problems most likely it would be in the form of freezing rain.
I sure don't have the guts to forecast any ice this far in advance, but just be aware it is not out of the question. For now we will mention a cold rain Thursday and Thursday night, followed by another shot of cold air over that following weekend.
From James Spann in Birmingham:
WINTER STORM THREAT? I have growing concern over a storm developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. If this were January, I would really be concerned over an ice storm across the deep south. But, this is December, and winter storms are pretty rare this early in the season.
A cold, 1040 mb high should be sitting around Kansas City as a deepening surface low forms in the Gulf. We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place here in Alabama, probably much colder than the models understand. I don't think the air will be deep enough to support snow; if we were to have winter weather problems most likely it would be in the form of freezing rain.
I sure don't have the guts to forecast any ice this far in advance, but just be aware it is not out of the question. For now we will mention a cold rain Thursday and Thursday night, followed by another shot of cold air over that following weekend.
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#neversummer
- Wpwxguy
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I doubt it'll happen either, however you just never know with these cold air masses. But check out the GFS precipitation forecast for Thursday/Friday. Snow to the Gulf Coast. Believe it when I see it! Any how here is the link.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr156hr168
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr156hr168
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NWS Birmingham:
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AS IF THIS WEEKEND WEREN'T
ENOUGH TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH...AN EARLY WINTER GULF LOW WILL NO
DOUBT BRING OUT THE SNOW MONGERS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. AS A
STRONG...COLD...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO MIDWEEK...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LURKING IN THE
GULF. THE COLD AIR PLUNGES THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS
THE GULF...WHERE A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...AND RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW...H85
TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY CONFIDENCE IN A
WINTER WEATHER TYPE FORECAST...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY THE RIGHT
TYPE OF PATTERN WHERE ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. AT LEAST IT'S NOT
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.
Looks like an interesting week ahead... but I still don't see it as snow if it does happen. If the cold air were not shallow, no doubt it would be.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AS IF THIS WEEKEND WEREN'T
ENOUGH TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH...AN EARLY WINTER GULF LOW WILL NO
DOUBT BRING OUT THE SNOW MONGERS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. AS A
STRONG...COLD...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO MIDWEEK...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LURKING IN THE
GULF. THE COLD AIR PLUNGES THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS
THE GULF...WHERE A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...AND RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW...H85
TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY CONFIDENCE IN A
WINTER WEATHER TYPE FORECAST...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY THE RIGHT
TYPE OF PATTERN WHERE ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. AT LEAST IT'S NOT
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.
Looks like an interesting week ahead... but I still don't see it as snow if it does happen. If the cold air were not shallow, no doubt it would be.
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#neversummer
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Wpwxguy wrote:I doubt it'll happen either, however you just never know with these cold air masses. But check out the GFS precipitation forecast for Thursday/Friday. Snow to the Gulf Coast. Believe it when I see it! Any how here is the link.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr156hr168
LOL... same here. I wouldn't rule out some flurries into the northern parts of the Gulf Coast states though(MS/AL/GA) on Monday on the backside of this weekend storm.
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#neversummer
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This is from Jackson's AFD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
(ALTHOUGH A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS). THERE IS SOME VERY
SMALL CONCERN THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD SWITCH OVER TO
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING IN NORTHERN ZONES...BUT CHANCES OF THIS ARE
LOW AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR. AS CAN
BE DEDUCED FROM JUST THE MENTION OF FLURRIES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S MANY AREAS ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT PROBABLY WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST LOCALES.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO THE MIDWEEK. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE COLD AIR
WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP
NEAR...OR JUST SOUTH...OF THE GULF COAST. INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT
MODELS PROG MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO COME DOWN THE PIKE...GETTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS GOING...THIS TIME IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MAY BE THE RECIPE FOR RARE WINTER WX HERE IF IT WERE
LATER IN THE YEAR...BUT WE`RE NOT BITING OFF ON THAT YET. FOR ONE
THING...THE TEMPS AND THICKNI APPEAR MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW OR ICE IN
OUR CWA...AND FOR ANOTHER THING...THE FORECASTED SCENARIO IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS A FAR FROM A CLASSIC WINTER WX PRODUCER
FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BUT STAYED TUNED. /BB/
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
(ALTHOUGH A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS). THERE IS SOME VERY
SMALL CONCERN THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD SWITCH OVER TO
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING IN NORTHERN ZONES...BUT CHANCES OF THIS ARE
LOW AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR. AS CAN
BE DEDUCED FROM JUST THE MENTION OF FLURRIES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S MANY AREAS ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT PROBABLY WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST LOCALES.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO THE MIDWEEK. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE COLD AIR
WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP
NEAR...OR JUST SOUTH...OF THE GULF COAST. INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT
MODELS PROG MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO COME DOWN THE PIKE...GETTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS GOING...THIS TIME IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MAY BE THE RECIPE FOR RARE WINTER WX HERE IF IT WERE
LATER IN THE YEAR...BUT WE`RE NOT BITING OFF ON THAT YET. FOR ONE
THING...THE TEMPS AND THICKNI APPEAR MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW OR ICE IN
OUR CWA...AND FOR ANOTHER THING...THE FORECASTED SCENARIO IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS A FAR FROM A CLASSIC WINTER WX PRODUCER
FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BUT STAYED TUNED. /BB/
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