Next Week Southern Snowstorm??

[TS Zack]

The talks are going everywhere!!!

What is the truth?

The Euro I think has the best handle on this upcoming storm. As we get closer to the event we will get a better handle on what exactly is the truth. It looks oh so familiar to Christmas last year.



Here is last year's snowstorm.




More Later...

[gboudx]

Zack, unless I'm looking at those wrong, that looks like more precip for the Dallas area than we got in last year's event. We had about 1.5" of snow at my house on 12/23. I'm not gonna get excited about this yet. Too far in the future.

[TS Zack]

Yea, the moisture would come East...

That is a ULL pulling out of Mexico. It would cause a low to form, but where?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, those maps look to show a statewide snow event as far south as extreme south Texas, all the way west to El Paso and north to amarillo and all the way east to Houston and Beaumont. If that were to play out, then the ENTIRE state could be covered in a coating of white come this weekend/early next week.

[gboudx]

Yeah, those maps look to show a statewide snow event as far south as extreme south Texas, all the way west to El Paso and north to amarillo and all the way east to Houston and Beaumont. If that were to play out, then the ENTIRE state could be covered in a coating of white come this weekend/early next week.

And by "coating", we're talking about several inches if that verifies. I ain't buying it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

IF and a big IF this comes to be. With a snow pack from North Dakota to Texas, could you imagine how cold the temps might get from subsquent Arctic fronts? That's assuming we get a 1-2-3 type punch through next week. Maybe Joe B won't be off his rocker to far by saying the coldest temps since the 1890's.

No prepared to even bet a dime on this scenerio right now.

[Brent]

Yeah, those maps look to show a statewide snow event as far south as extreme south Texas, all the way west to El Paso and north to amarillo and all the way east to Houston and Beaumont. If that were to play out, then the ENTIRE state could be covered in a coating of white come this weekend/early next week.

And by "coating", we're talking about several inches if that verifies. I ain't buying it.

I'm not either... certainly not the whole state. I could easily see several inches somewhere in the state, but Texas is huge. Let's be realistic here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from Joe Bastardi calls for significant snow/icefall in Texas by Monday morning. He says that the most may fall from a line from Texarcana to Waco and then southward. This would include Houston, Corpus Christi and even Brownsville. By significant, he uses the word "encased" in ice or snow...which probably means more than a dusting. He also says that this will probably be one of the worst pre-christmas southern snow/ice storms in history. ALSO the NWS in Houston has just issued a speacial weather statement that is ALREADY mentioning the possibility of extreme cold and snow/ice. I would not be surpirsed to see AT LEAST a repeat of 1983 or 1989. Keep in mind that in 83', Houston stayed below freezing for 5 days straight, and in 1989 Houston stayed below freezing for 3 days with a low of 7 degrees on Christmas Eve. Also keep in mind that during both of those cold spells, highs were only in the 20s for a few days! Crazy weather could be in store...

[Valkhorn]

What about points eastward? I'm curious to know about LA, MS, and AL, too since I live in MS and have friends/family all throughout those three states...

[Burn1]

Way to early to speculate for Texas......Some of you in SE Texas have been spoiled by last years event.....Lets remember that it was historic and the chances of it happening 2 years in a row are very, very slim....
SE Texas is not in the snow belt......Wait and see....

[southerngale]

Way to early to speculate for Texas......Some of you in SE Texas have been spoiled by last years event.....Lets remember that it was historic and the chances of it happening 2 years in a row are very, very slim....
SE Texas is not in the snow belt......Wait and see....

Very true, but a lot of historic things seem to be happening lately. Nothing would surprise me.


With that said, it does seem a little too crazy to happen.

[PTrackerLA]

IF and a big IF this comes to be. With a snow pack from North Dakota to Texas, could you imagine how cold the temps might get from subsquent Arctic fronts? That's assuming we get a 1-2-3 type punch through next week. Maybe Joe B won't be off his rocker to far by saying the coldest temps since the 1890's.

No prepared to even bet a dime on this scenerio right now.

Could be the start of the next ice age around here?

It will be VERY interesting if temps approach 1989 or 1983 levels though, we would pretty much be guaranteed some type of winter weather event. I'll be ready, just got a ton of firewood over the weekend .

[Extremeweatherguy]

IF and a big IF this comes to be. With a snow pack from North Dakota to Texas, could you imagine how cold the temps might get from subsquent Arctic fronts? That's assuming we get a 1-2-3 type punch through next week. Maybe Joe B won't be off his rocker to far by saying the coldest temps since the 1890's.

No prepared to even bet a dime on this scenerio right now.

Could be the start of the next ice age around here?

It will be VERY interesting if temps approach 1989 or 1983 levels though, we would pretty much be guaranteed some type of winter weather event. I'll be ready, just got a ton of firewood over the weekend .

Yes, we would probably be guaranteed winter weather. In 1983, Houston reported two glazes of ice during that 5-day freeze, and in 1989 2" of snow fell during the 3-day freeze. To compare...Houston only recorded a trace - 0.1" of snow last christmas (with south Houston getting about an inch).

[Extremeweatherguy]

What about points eastward? I'm curious to know about LA, MS, and AL, too since I live in MS and have friends/family all throughout those three states...

After affecting Texas, the storm would probably then move on to affect the entire Gulf coast with ice/snow threats possible in all of the areas mentioned above. Remember though that this is still 6-8 days out and there are no guarantees yet.

[freeport_texas22]

It's not often that I might start a thread about the potential for sleet/snow here in southeast Texas. Usually, I'm trying to explain why it won't sleet or snow here. However, I do think that it is looking more possible that we could actually see the "S" word here in Houston Sunday/Monday. That is, if the ECMWF is even close to correct. Take a gander at the 12Z (6am CST) ECMWF forecast. Mouse over the times in the upper left to advance the map from day 1 through day 7:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

In particular, look at the map for 6am Monday:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f168.gif

Note the red dashed line in the map on the upper left. That's the 5400 meter sfc-500mb thickness line. You don't need to know what that means, technically, but generally the snow line is well south of that red dashed line. A good rule of thumb for us is that the rain/snow line is one line out ahead of that red dashed line, the 5460 meter thickness line. So that shows the air is cold enough for snow all the way down to Victoria on Monday morning.

Now look at the map in the upper left, the 500 mb (18,000ft) contour map. Note the axis of low pressure is well to our northwest and a disturbance is rotating around the bottom of the trof. That's a sign that another wave will be developing along the cold front on Monday morning (translation - precipitation likely here) with temperatures cold enough for snow here.

Now look at the lower 2 maps indicating relative humidity (moisture) in the lower to mid parts of the atmosphere. Plenty of moisture available.

So we have air cold enough for snow, a disturbance moving across the cold air to produce lifting, and plenty of moisture to squeeze out precipitation. All this points to frozen precipitaion possible in Houston on Sunday/Monday.

The ECMWF has been consistent in this forecast (the general idea) for 2-3 days now, though it wasn't as bullish on frozen precip chances until the last few runs. The American model, on the other hand, is completely lost. And that's the model that the NWS and Weather Channel are following with their temperature forecasts. The GFS did absolutely terribly with the last event, as it just can't handle Arctic air. It's clearly out to lunch with the coming weekend's Arctic air. The NWS is forecasting a high in the 50-52 range here Sunday/Monday, when it could be as cold as 34-36 for the highs, maybe even colder.

Bottom line -- it's by no means a certainty, but I think that we may have a reasonable chance of seeing frozen precipitation here in Houston on Sunday/Monday. It certainly looks very cold, regardless. Let's see if the ECMWF continues the current trend over the next 2-3 runs (every 12 hours), and if the GFS ever gets a clue in the coming days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looking at the latest run of the GFS on accuweather.com professional...it seems like it wants to bring two storms into the area. The first would come on Sat/Sun. with a snow/rain line down to about Houston. The second would come by Mon/Tues. with a rain/snow line well down into south Texas. Starting to look interesting. Keep in mind that the GFS was not even showing a real good threat of snow earlier, so now that even it has jumped on the band wagon makes me wonder if this could really be a serious threat. So far we have pretty much all the sources (models & forecasters) saying that there is a chance of wintry weather. Usually the NWS does not mention a threat like this until 1-2 days out, but here they are at about 5-7 days out already hinting at the subject.

[rsvh2000]

What do you all see for even further east? Say, central SC

[DrStorm]

Even wxman is talking about the possibility (on another popular weather forum). He's about the only guy I listen to.

[aggiecutter]

The players are on the field for a possible major winter event for North and Northeast Texas saturday night into sunday. With a low forming in the GOM and the GFS's bias in underplaying cold air into Texas, this is something everyone in the northern part of the state needs to keep an eye on.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

[Brent]

This is from ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, AL.

Saturday - 12/17
Colder with a chance of rain. Snow possible Saturday night over parts of north Alabama.
Low: 32 High: 43

Wind: E 7-14 mph Sun Percentage: 15% Hours Of Rain: 4
Rain Potential: 0.40" Severe Weather Threat: None

Sunday - 12/18
A chance of rain or snow, mainly during the morning.
Low: 32 High: 40

Wind: N 8-16 mph Sun Percentage: 25% Hours Of Rain: 1
Rain Potential: 0.15" Severe Weather Threat: None