
EURO shows blizzard for east?
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EURO shows blizzard for east?
DAY 6 SHOWS A 996 LOW OVER NE SC AND DAY 7 A 987 Low just E of the VA Capes.


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- WindRunner
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ECMWF run
I'm speechless.
Ironically, the final NWS long-range WX discussion was posted before noon EDT, before the 12 UT ECMWF came out. It is usually posted at 1-2 PM ... so no help there.
But ... we're only talking 7 days. Six-day output is available on the web from several models including the GFS, NOGAPS, GEM, WRF-extended, DGEX, UKMET, ECMWF. So we should know in 24 hours if a major storm is possible. If I had an inch of snow for every time one long range model or another predicted a major storm ...
That said, Looking at ECMWF movies, it looks like the computer-storm explodes off DelMarVa; however, the storm already appears to be well developed at that point (unusual). A NEngland storm/blizzard at some point in late Dec/early Jan. is hardly surprising but a major storm/blizzard affecting the Mid-Atlantic and New England would be. We'll have to wait and see.
... If the storm disappears in tomorrow's 00 ECWMF run, it is only proper to criticize the ECMWF for flipping.
Ironically, the final NWS long-range WX discussion was posted before noon EDT, before the 12 UT ECMWF came out. It is usually posted at 1-2 PM ... so no help there.
But ... we're only talking 7 days. Six-day output is available on the web from several models including the GFS, NOGAPS, GEM, WRF-extended, DGEX, UKMET, ECMWF. So we should know in 24 hours if a major storm is possible. If I had an inch of snow for every time one long range model or another predicted a major storm ...
That said, Looking at ECMWF movies, it looks like the computer-storm explodes off DelMarVa; however, the storm already appears to be well developed at that point (unusual). A NEngland storm/blizzard at some point in late Dec/early Jan. is hardly surprising but a major storm/blizzard affecting the Mid-Atlantic and New England would be. We'll have to wait and see.
... If the storm disappears in tomorrow's 00 ECWMF run, it is only proper to criticize the ECMWF for flipping.
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Storm more likely
The 30th's storm is also in the 00 UT ECMWFand 00 and 06 UT GFS runs. However, no cold air is in place. Likely a rainmaker.
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