The burning season cometh

[azsnowman]

Here we are, 5 January and we're under "Red Flag Warning" and if THAT weren't bad enough, we honestly have a friggin' fire burning RIGHT NOW It's 2 miles to my east in the Pinetop Country Club, a small fire 1/2 acre but non the less a FIRE........NEVER in history has there been a wildfire season in January......................God help us all in the west

Dennis

[wxcrazytwo]

Dennis with all the hot dry season your having, you will need prayers because it will be a long road for you folks, and I have a feeling it is going to get worse.

[azsnowman]

A total of 4 acres burned yesterday.........we have some SICKO out there dileberatly SETTING FIRES trying to burn down the town before summer hits

We had one fire start from a spark from a woodstove yesterday morning......that's HOW DRY it IS!!

Dennis

[LTHLBLU]

that sucks bro.
Ironicialy we have had too much rain below 7000 feet this year, a few floods, but now the mountains are getting snow like they should. The snow pack is above normal and more snow on the way, so the whole west isnt in to bad of shape. I hope you get some moisture soon man. Fires arent good (even tho i am trying to make some money on wildifre photos )

[LTHLBLU]

lets hope this GFS prediction actually holds:

[Aslkahuna]

I would not count on the 312 hr GFS as being good for anything other than comic relief as it has been forecasting rain down here after 10 Days since the 1st of November. If the GFS verified perfectly on it's Day 10+ ranfall, AZ would get about 50 inches of rain per year and parts of the East Coast would be the wettest spot on Earth.

Steve

[LTHLBLU]

yea, just trying to get some laughs and raise the mood

[Aslkahuna]

Closer to the current time and with much more consensus among the various models is that it's going to get siginificantly cooler and rather breezy this weekend and into next week in AZ. Changes for significant snowfall in the Whites is small but they could see something.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

A pattern shift acometh, or at least we can hope so...

LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TRANSIENT...WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING MON AND TUE. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT AS A LARGE...DEEP...COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WOULD MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A pattern shift acometh, or at least we can hope so...

LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TRANSIENT...WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING MON AND TUE. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT AS A LARGE...DEEP...COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WOULD MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH.

Looks promising! Hopefully those in Arizona will finally see some cold, wet weather.

[Aslkahuna]

Cold, yes-not so sure about wet since there's not much consensus amongst the models on that aspect yet.

Steve

[WaitingForSiren]

Wow you live in southern california wxmann>? That must suck pretty bad. Boring weather there. Here in Minnesota, we see all kinds of weather and its awesome. I could never live in a place with a stable climate, i need snow sleet hail wind tornadoes...EVERYTHING! Except, we got hit by a insane storm on September 21 amd lost power for days, Im sure you were watching it on radar. It was an amazing storm, Supercell complex transitioning to a mesocyclone...there were some f2 tornadoes near my house and winds of 80mph+lasted a long time. There were trees down everywhere. But man, without power for 6 days was TEH SUCK.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow you live in southern california wxmann>? That must suck pretty bad. Boring weather there. Here in Minnesota, we see all kinds of weather and its awesome. I could never live in a place with a stable climate, i need snow sleet hail wind tornadoes...EVERYTHING! Except, we got hit by a insane storm on September 21 amd lost power for days, Im sure you were watching it on radar. It was an amazing storm, Supercell complex transitioning to a mesocyclone...there were some f2 tornadoes near my house and winds of 80mph+lasted a long time. There were trees down everywhere. But man, without power for 6 days was TEH SUCK.

Yeah southern california's climate is too stable for me too. I base my seasons like this: Arctic outbreak hoping season, tornado season, hurricane season, fall storm season, and then back again. I have been able to have this scale of seasons when I lived in Florida, North Carolina and now also Texas. In Arizona though, I was not so lucky. I pretty much had the monsoon season and the LONG dry season. I don't know what I would do without at least the "threat" of cold weather, the storms in the spring and a hurricane season; and I am glad I only lived in AZ for a year.

[WaitingForSiren]

Haha, we my friend, think exactly alike. This is how it goes for me: november-february i hope for a major snowstorm with 30 inches (never happens), march-april i hope for a major spring severe weather outbreak (also never happens, although a few years back in april we had a nice early severe event), may-june i hope for a classic tornado outbreak, july-august i hope for heavy rain and flooding, september-october i hope for either a late season severe weather outbreak or a major fall winter storm. Arctic outbreaks are always fun, but here in Minnesota it gets WAYYYY too cold during them.

[aveosmth]

Our weather here in SoCal is relatively stable compared to most of the country, but not as "boring" as you would think.

2005 was a record year for us as far as rainfall in SoCal & up until the very end of the year Los Angeles had recorded more rainfall than Seattle!!

It wasn't your typical 1/2 inch storms as well. We were under categorical watch for thunderstorms by the SPC almost every week in January and February and had one SLGT & MOD risk of severe weather as well.

Our weather pattern last year would have rivaled any spot in the country as we had numerous tornadoes, several rounds of hail (I recorded 1 3/8 inch hail at my house) and winds up to 80 miles per hour.

Snow is only 1 hour away from my house and we got inundated with that as well. Basically, if wxmann lived in SoCal in 2005 he would have been a pretty happy camper.

[wxmann_91]

Basically, if wxmann lived in SoCal in 2005 he would have been a pretty happy camper.

I was a happy camper, since I've lived here for five years. So I was in SoCal to experience that historic rainy season.

In the East, if you like wild weather, you take things for granted. But here, everybody yells and shouts for joy when a major rain event is predicted. So I mean it's still fun sometimes.

[WaitingForSiren]

When were you under a moderate risk? I dont recall ever seeing CA under a MDT risk.

[wxmann_91]

When were you under a moderate risk? I dont recall ever seeing CA under a MDT risk.

We were never under a MDT. But in February a Tornado Watch was issued for SoCal.

[LTHLBLU]

yea, i remeber 2 bad storms, 1 the year before i moved to Reno, that one had f2 tornadoes and straight line winds and we lost power for 2 days. The other was i think 2 years before that, Austin,MN got hit hard with flooding and straight line winds. I was in Albert Lea when it was producing tornadoes, and softball size hail. Then it turned to straight line winds.
I also remeber 1 winter storm were they were saying just a dusting and when i was at school and looke dout, saw at least a foot, ended up getting 18in of powder. so yea, MN has some crazy weather.

[WaitingForSiren]

You actually witnessed softball sized hail? amazing. Yeah, i love the weather in Minnesota. Probably the most awesome weather out of any state in the US, well except for maybe Iowa or Nebraska, they get better Supercells and stuff during the spring and early summer.