Weekend winter storm thread

[Lowpressure]

With some of the threads getting way too long. I am starting a weekend winter storm thread. Interest is really picking up since the latest GFS run has support. Many areas stand to get in on this action. With plenty of cold air in place and more on the way, this could be white for many as well. Looking forward to discussion and a potentially wild weekend.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this thing (and that is a very big if at this early stage) is as bad as it could be, then we could be looking at an Eastern storm of historic proportions. Needless to say that it will be interesting to watch how things pan out over the next 72 hours, and beyond.

[WindRunner]

GFS precip estimates are insanely high on the 12Z run. A 12-16" swath starts in Richmond and moves up towards Dover/NJ area, with about a foot for DC and Phili areas. 18Z running a little drier and faster, but certainly still a significant storm brewing.

[EDR1222]

The area forecast discussions for Central Florida continue to trend lower for Sunday night. They are saying low 30's now but it might have to be adjusted downward even further.

[GeneratorPower]

North Alabama could certainly use a dose of winter weather. I'll be watching it from here and look forward to posting. I'm just beginning to use the Storm2K forums.

[GeneratorPower]

NWS Huntsville, Alabama Wednesday 2/8/06 3:18pm CST

FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAS PICKED UP ON A PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WITH NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THIS PHASING...AND A GOOD INFLOW OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW
OVER THE WEEKEND APPEARS IT MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER
FOR THE EAST COAST...A WINTER STORM/NOREASTER. FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING. MORE COLD AIR RUSHING IN WEST OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE GFS WAS MUCH MORE PREFERRED
THIS GO AROUND THAN THE MUCH DRIER NAM...AS IT DID NOT GET A GOOD
FEED ON GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SUPPORT SNOW OVER THIS ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS FAR
OUT ARE UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAINS TO SNOW AND WHAT
THE GROUND TEMPS WILL BE. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETAIL THIS.
BACKWASH MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW DURING SATURDAY...ENDING AS FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING.

One thing we've learned here in North AL is that when they forecast flurries, we get snow and when they forcast snow, we get rain.

[sphinx]

Its times like this when I invoke the Richmond rule of thumb. If the models are predicting over a foot of snow for Richmond ... the models are wrong!

[Brent]

ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, AL:

Winter Storm Ahead?

February 8, 2006, 9:28 pm
Lets use this space tonight to be specific about the storm system that will impact the Deep South Friday night and Saturday morning. The computer models are now in relatively good agreement, making for a reasonably high confidence forecast. Of course, having said that winter weather forecasting in Alabama is very difficult, and some changes in this scenario might be needed.

Rain should enter West Alabama Friday evening, sometime between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. Rain should become widespread by 9:00 p.m. For communities in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley), the precipitation should begin as a wintry mix, and change to all snow before midnight.

As colder air pulls in behind a surface low that will move from near Mobile to Dothan, the rain should change to snow over the central part of the state during the night. For the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, we believe snow accumulation POTENTIAL of 1 to 2 inches is possible from about midnight through 6:00 a.m.

There could be a band of heavier snow accumulation (over two inches) near U.S. 278, or along a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The ultimate track of the surface low will determine where the strip of heaviest snow will fall, and that strip is only about 20 to 40 miles wide in most cases here in Alabama with winter storm events. It is very hard to nail down that strip more than 24 hours in advance.

We need to mention that the models are suggest liquid equivalent amounts of about 3/4 inch with this system from 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Saturday; if by chance that all falls as snow some spots could see 7 inches. But, we don’t expect that to happen, and for now we will go with the more conservative forecast based on a large part of that 3/4 inch falling as rain.

As always, a few surprises are likely with any kind of system like this. And, of course, this forecast is subject to change.

Very cold air settles into the state for the weekend, and temperatures could reach the teens both Sunday and Monday morning. Stay tuned!

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post ... torm-Ahead

I'm not getting excited... yet.

[GeneratorPower]

One thing we have to remember is that forecasts for winter weather, especially in Alabama, are spotty at best. This past Sunday night at 10pm, all the locals and the NWS were forecasting a nearly definite 1-2" of snow across middle Alabama. When we woke up there was absolutely nothing but rain. Several years ago, so the locals will tell you, the NWS and local stations were forecasting a dusting of snow. In the morning, they had over 7" on the ground and people were snowed in without bread or milk for days. Hence, at the slightest mention of snow around here, people make a run on Wal-Mart for bread and milk.

I think it's important to keep in mind that very few of the greatest winter storms in history were forecast to be such.

[Tyler]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

[Brent]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

Yeah but it's trending north... ugh.

Gotta go back south or I get the typical cold rain with a few flurries as it ends... which sucks.

[Tyler]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

Yeah but it's trending north... ugh.

Gotta go back south or I get the typical cold rain with a few flurries as it ends... which sucks.

At least we're talking about this inside 100 hours

[JenyEliza]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

Yeah but it's trending north... ugh.

Gotta go back south or I get the typical cold rain with a few flurries as it ends... which sucks.

How far south does it go? Do we stand any chance, Brent? Or is this another storm for the Cold Winter Rain thread?

[JenyEliza]

One thing we have to remember is that forecasts for winter weather, especially in Alabama, are spotty at best. This past Sunday night at 10pm, all the locals and the NWS were forecasting a nearly definite 1-2" of snow across middle Alabama. When we woke up there was absolutely nothing but rain. Several years ago, so the locals will tell you, the NWS and local stations were forecasting a dusting of snow. In the morning, they had over 7" on the ground and people were snowed in without bread or milk for days. Hence, at the slightest mention of snow around here, people make a run on Wal-Mart for bread and milk.

I think it's important to keep in mind that very few of the greatest winter storms in history were forecast to be such.

Even right up until the first snow fell, the mets in Atlanta weren't predicting much for Atlanta in March 1993. They seriously downplayed it....

[Brent]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

Yeah but it's trending north... ugh.

Gotta go back south or I get the typical cold rain with a few flurries as it ends... which sucks.

How far south does it go? Do we stand any chance, Brent? Or is this another storm for the Cold Winter Rain thread?

Well, the 0z GFS and NAM weren't that great for us. Just a chance of a changeover before it ends, typical junk. The earlier runs showed a decent shot at some accumulation(starting as rain), and then changing to all snow before ending, even down to the I-20 corridor.

Just have to wait and see... I'd say we have a good chance, but the models cannot keep trending north with the low, or we don't stand a chance.

[Brent]

One thing we have to remember is that forecasts for winter weather, especially in Alabama, are spotty at best. This past Sunday night at 10pm, all the locals and the NWS were forecasting a nearly definite 1-2" of snow across middle Alabama. When we woke up there was absolutely nothing but rain. Several years ago, so the locals will tell you, the NWS and local stations were forecasting a dusting of snow. In the morning, they had over 7" on the ground and people were snowed in without bread or milk for days. Hence, at the slightest mention of snow around here, people make a run on Wal-Mart for bread and milk.

I think it's important to keep in mind that very few of the greatest winter storms in history were forecast to be such.

Even right up until the first snow fell, the mets in Atlanta weren't predicting much for Atlanta in March 1993. They seriously downplayed it....

The Birmingham mets(James Spann in particularly who is still doing the weather) jumped all over it, warning of a "historic snowstorm" 2 days in advance. I've noticed the Atlanta mets typically downplay everything so it doesn't surprise me.

[JenyEliza]

0z GFS gives northern AL, GA lots of snow...

Yeah but it's trending north... ugh.

Gotta go back south or I get the typical cold rain with a few flurries as it ends... which sucks.

How far south does it go? Do we stand any chance, Brent? Or is this another storm for the Cold Winter Rain thread?

Well, the 0z GFS and NAM weren't that great for us. Just a chance of a changeover before it ends, typical junk. The earlier runs showed a decent shot at some accumulation(starting as rain), and then changing to all snow before ending, even down to the I-20 corridor.

Just have to wait and see... I'd say we have a good chance, but the models cannot keep trending north with the low, or we don't stand a chance.

At this point, it sounds more than marginally like it will be yet another Cold Winter Rain event. As per usual.

Not going to get excited or even mention the * word to my children. No point in getting their hopes up, only to see them dashed again.

[JenyEliza]

One thing we have to remember is that forecasts for winter weather, especially in Alabama, are spotty at best. This past Sunday night at 10pm, all the locals and the NWS were forecasting a nearly definite 1-2" of snow across middle Alabama. When we woke up there was absolutely nothing but rain. Several years ago, so the locals will tell you, the NWS and local stations were forecasting a dusting of snow. In the morning, they had over 7" on the ground and people were snowed in without bread or milk for days. Hence, at the slightest mention of snow around here, people make a run on Wal-Mart for bread and milk.

I think it's important to keep in mind that very few of the greatest winter storms in history were forecast to be such.

Even right up until the first snow fell, the mets in Atlanta weren't predicting much for Atlanta in March 1993. They seriously downplayed it....

The Birmingham mets(James Spann in particularly who is still doing the weather) jumped all over it, warning of a "historic snowstorm" 2 days in advance. I've noticed the Atlanta mets typically downplay everything so it doesn't surprise me.

It could be snowing outside at 3" an hour and our mets would tell you it's going to be partly cloudy and cold, with a slight chance of flurries in "far northern GA". (ok, slight exaggeration, but you get my drift....).

I'm going to hold off on my excitment until we're closer to the weekend (like Friday morning) and there's more information to go on.

No point in setting myself up for disappointment (again..you'd think I'd learn after the last few winters here).

Thanks for keeping us posted....

[Lowpressure]

Surprise surprise, it is snowing right now 6 a.m. in Charlotte. Woke up to a white ground and about 1/2 inch and still coming down. Snow advisories have been issued for the Charlotte metro and surrounding counties for around one inch of snow? It is pretty out here and rather unexpected.

[JenyEliza]

Surprise surprise, it is snowing right now 6 a.m. in Charlotte. Woke up to a white ground and about 1/2 inch and still coming down. Snow advisories have been issued for the Charlotte metro and surrounding counties for around one inch of snow? It is pretty out here and rather unexpected.

Enjoy the snow....